The Unassuming Economist

From a book edited by Ulrich Mückenberger, Heiner Fechner, and Irene Dingeldey:

“The volume Constructing Worlds of Labour aims to break new ground in presenting results on different types of labour standards around the world as regulatory social policy. The specifc topic is to make visible that, and to explain why, employment law worldwide not only has a protective role but also a segmenting role—creating social differentiation based on status, gender and/or race. We conceptualised this role of law as legal segmentation and identifed various historical and power-related reasons for it. We also want to identify how segmenting employment law interacts with segmentative implications of other (current and/or historical) legal institutions—such as social law, family law, tax law, but also legislation based on slavery, gender, race and ethnicity. As explanations, not only path dependent institutional developments are the subject of in-depth investigations but also colonial infuences, international organisations and
epistemic communities including postcolonial thought. The research outcomes are comprehensively discussed in order to derive propositions on how to overcome the described situation in the different worlds of labour. Hence, not only applying a global perspective but also treading new paths in interdisciplinary co-operation—both theoretically/normatively and empirically—makes this book outstanding.”

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From a paper by Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Giorgos Vasilis, and Anna-Maria Kanzola:

“This chapter explores major economic megatrends shaping the global economy, focusing on three transformative forces: persistent economic inequality, the rising global debt, and the shift in global economic power from the West to the East and South. It examines how historical developments, technological progress, globalization, and crises such as the 2008 financial collapse and the Covid-19 pandemic have contributed to growing inequalities. The chapter also analyzes the continuous increase in global debt, highlighting its implications for financial stability and long-term growth. Lastly, it discusses the rebalancing of global economic power, emphasizing the roles of emerging economies, particularly in Asia, and the challenges posed by a multipolar world. These trends are framed as critical for understanding the future trajectory of global economic and political dynamics.”

From a paper by Ali Soltani, Alireza Dehghani, and Parviz Azizi:

“Urban expansion has traditionally been studied in terms of horizontal sprawl, overlooking the role of vertical densification. This paper adopts a volumetric approach to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban growth in the Tehran Metropolitan Region (TMR) from 1985 to 2024, addressing two key objectives: (a) to examine border patterns of volumetric growth, demographic shifts, and intra-urban variations, and (b) to identify the underlying drivers of volumetric expansion. Using Landsat imagery, Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data, and population statistics from the Statistical Center of Iran, we apply spatial-statistical methods and the XGBoost-SHAP machine learning framework to assess urban expansion patterns and their driving forces. Our findings reveal a transition from vertical densification to horizontal sprawl, with urban expansion increasingly adopting an outward trajectory. Intra-urban analysis uncovers a diffusion-coalescence pattern, where vertical densification often follows horizontal expansion but can also occur concurrently. While older urban segments continue to densify vertically due to land scarcity, newly developed areas exhibit distinct volumetric characteristics, reflecting a cyclical interplay between centralization and decentralization. The XGBoost-SHAP analysis highlights a shift in driving forces from spatial inertia to population-driven growth and, more recently, to economic and geographic constraints. By integrating remote sensing, spatial analysis, and machine learning, this study provides a systematic and data-driven framework for understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion and its underlying drivers. The findings underscore the importance of integrated urban planning strategies that balance vertical and horizontal growth, optimize land use, and enhance sustainability. Incorporating volumetric analysis into planning frameworks can foster more adaptive, resource-efficient, and resilient urban development.”

From a post by by Jay Kulkarni and Susan Thomas:

The economic well-being of households is primarily about their ability to spend on consumption. Household consumption is dominated by what the income of the household is, but not limited by it. Households that spend less than they earn, build their savings. Households that spend more than they earn either borrow or draw down on earlier savings. There is a big difference in the life-cycle possibilities between households that manage to save versus those that do not. In this article, we analyse a panel dataset of Indian households to understand what differentiates households who live within, or beyond, their means.

An often discussed measure of the household’s income-consumption dynamic is the `marginal propensity to consume’ or MPC, which is the marginal change in consumption for a marginal change in income. The MPC is a valuable part of the toolkit of macroeconomics. An equally important measure is the ‘average propensity to consume’ (which is abbreviated as APC). This is the fraction of disposable income that the household consumes. The APC shows the income-consumption dynamics of a household in a stated time period. When the APC is below 1, the household is saving, and on average, building up its wealth. There is a clear line between low APC households (i.e. those with APC below 1), who are building up wealth, vs. the households that are not.

In an advanced economy, we think of the APC as a part of life cycle optimisations. When an affluent and financial unconstrained household is young, it builds up savings (i.e. low APC), and then it dis-saves in old age (i.e. high APC). In a poor country, we see many households who are dis-saving even when they are young. Building up wealth versus drawing down wealth takes on a different character in the context of a low middle income economy (Badarinza et al, 2019).

Aggregate facts about household APC, and its covariates, are an important element of understanding India. This article aims to establish such facts. What is the average household APC in India? What fraction of households have a low APC? Do higher income households have a low APC? Do low APC households have lower income volatility? Are low APC households systematically older households? What is the connection between financial inclusion and household APC?”

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From a paper by Abdelkader Aguir:

“The global COVID-19 crisis led to a major recession, following a supply and demand shock severely affecting both developed and emerging economies. Containment measures reduced demand and production, while financial market volatility impacted emerging economies. Countries’ stimulus policies had mixed effects on these economies. The pandemic also disrupted global supply chains, leading to volatility in the prices of raw materials such as oil, metals and agricultural products. These fluctuations had an impact on production costs and, consequently, on the prices of final goods and services. In the wake of rising inflation, some are questioning the effectiveness of inflation-targeting policies. Our study evaluates the performance of this monetary regime in the face of crisis, estimating the efficiency frontier: inflation variability – output variability, which allows us to deduce measures of economic performance and measures of the efficiency of monetary policy in the face of an economic crisis.”