The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• BIS residential property price statistics, Q4 2024 – BIS
• Global Real Estate Outlook – Edition May 2025. Market to pause and reflect – UBS
• Solving Africa’s Housing Deficit – CSIS
• Shops make a city great. The missing piece in our urbanist discussion. – Noahpinion 
• Monetary policy transmission: from mortgage rates to consumption – European Central Bank
• European homeowners face rising mortgage costs until 2030. Many fixed-rate loans taken out in era of low and negative interest rates are now coming to an end, the ECB warns – FT

Working papers and conferences:

• Macro reforms for housing affordability – Analysis & Policy Observatory
• The Effect of Airbnb on Housing Prices: Evidence from the 2017 Solar Eclipse – SSRN
• Global Housing Returns, and the Emergence of the Safe Asset, 1465-2024 – SSRN  

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Federal government’s ‘affordable housing’ strategy doomed without strong income growth – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Ontario government will spend more—for less housing – Fraser Institute
• [Canada] Housing use of immigrants and non-permanent residents in ownership and rental markets – Statistics Canada
• [Germany] German home prices to rise 3% this year on tight supply; affordability to worsen – Reuters
• [Singapore] Singapore’s housing challenge: why some young adults still live with their parents. High property costs and cultural norms keep many Singaporeans living with parents, as singles face challenges buying homes as adults – South China Morning Post
• [United Kingdom] Ministers explore plans to ease rules for small builders in England. Industry welcomes drive to unblock development but warns mortgage lending reform is still needed – FT

From a paper by Sini Sabu:

“This study examines the asymmetric relationship between real exchange rate fluctuations and household inflation expectations in India via ARDL and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) models. The results indicate that inflation expectations respond significantly to exchange rate appreciation but are less sensitive to depreciation. A threshold analysis confirms that only substantial exchange rate deviations affect expectations, whereas minor fluctuations have negligible effects. Empirical evidence suggests that an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate by 10 units reduces inflation expectations by approximately 3.2 percentage points, whereas a similar depreciation results in only a 1.4 percentage point increase. These findings challenge the assumption of symmetric exchange rate pass-through and emphasize the importance of exchange rate stability in monetary policy formulation. Given the implications for inflation targeting, policymakers should prioritize exchange rate interventions that minimize excessive appreciation, while also strengthening communication strategies to manage inflation expectations more effectively.”

From a paper by Xianbo Zhou, Songliang Han, Yingming Wu, and Guangsu Zhou:

“This paper uses micro survey data from China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) 2011 to 2019 and the staggered DID approach to study the impact of the loose “universal two-child” policy on Chinese household consumption inequality. The results show that the implementation of the policy can significantly reduce the relative consumption deprivation of policy-responsive families, and the effect is more significant for relatively vulnerable households, for example, those located in rural areas or western regions, with “outside-the-system” jobs or low- to middle-income levels. Mechanistic analysis revealed that the differentiated effects of the policy on the consumption of households with different income strata contributed to the reduction in consumption inequality. Furthermore, the policy alleviates consumption inequality through its negative effect on luxury consumption and positive effects on subsistence and development consumption. The mitigating effect of the two-child policy on consumption inequality is robust according to various robustness tests. This study has implications and policy significance for the implementation of China’s current three-child policy and the adjustment of future fertility policies, as well as narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor and achieving the goals of common prosperity and equalization.”

From a paper by Suale Karimu, and Attahir B. Abubakar:

“Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced significant structural change and economic growth in recent decades; however, inequality levels remain high, raising concerns that the growth is not inclusive enough to reduce inequality levels. This study explores the effect of economic growth and structural change on income inequality using a panel dataset of 40 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2001–2015. The study employs the iterated Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator for analysis. The findings suggest that although increased income levels in the region fuel inequality, the transition of the economies towards the services sector could reduce income inequality. However, the overall contribution of structural change to reducing inequality levels has been minimal suggesting that the growth experiences of the region, especially over the last two decades, may not have been inclusive; hence, the need for enhanced redistributive policies to deepen inclusivity of the growth process.”

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.4% year-over-year in March – Calculated Risk
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index Increases 3.4% in March – Realtor.com
• U.S. House Prices Rise 4.0 Percent over the Prior Year; Up 0.7 Percent from the Fourth Quarter of 2024 – FHFA
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• House Prices Outpaced Income Growth Over the Past 40 Years – statista 
• The luxury housing market is cracking — and tech-heavy cities are getting hit hardest. The affluent are growing skittish because of layoffs and rising uncertainty – Quartz
• Housing market shift: 80 major markets that are seeing falling home prices. Among the 300 largest metro-area housing markets, 80 are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis, according to ResiClub’s monthly analysis. – Fast Company
• Home Prices Dip for the First Time Since March as Housing Market Cools – Realtor.com
• 94% Multifamily Built-for-Rent Share – NAHB
• Interest rates, term premia, and mortgages…They’re all going up. – Jared Bernstein
• Mortgage Interest Rates Today: Mortgage Rates Spike After U.S. Loses Its Top Credit Rating – Realtor.com
• US housing finance chief tells Powell to lower interest rates – The Hill
• The risk to the housing market if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conservatorship ends. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be on the agenda after trade deals and taxes. – Fast Company

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in April; Down 2.0% YoY – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Fall in April – NAHB
• Lower prices boost new US home sales; outlook downbeat amid higher mortgages – Reuters
• Home Sales in April Fell for the Second Straight Month. The slowest sales pace for any April in 16 years indicates the spring selling season is shaping up as a bust – Wall Street Journal
• Home sales are stuck — and prices are still rising. A tight market is becoming a full-blown affordability crisis as existing home sales stall, prices climb, and mortgage rates top 7% – Quartz
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in April and a Look Ahead to May Sales – Calculated Risk
• New Home Sales Up in April Despite Stubbornly High Rates – Realtor.com
• Housing Slowing Down – Apollo
• Fewer building restrictions, more housing: Examining builders’ response to demand – Zillow
• Building Material Price Growth Minimal in April – NAHB
• Texas Revs the Growth Machine – Reason
• Homebuilder unsold inventory swells to 2009 levels: Housing markets to watch. There’s greater slack in the new-construction market now than a few years ago, giving buyers some leverage in certain markets to negotiate better deals. – Fast Company

On other developments:    

• Cleveland’s Housing Bargain Bonanza as It Surges Among the Most Affordable Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Volatile Spring Selling Season Continues – NAHB
• Event: The State of the Nation’s Housing 2025 on June 24 – Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Congress Should Repeal the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, Not Expand It – Cato Institute
• Housing Market Gets a Shot of Good News – Wall Street Journal 
• U.S.-China Tariff Tension Could Hit These California Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Affordable Housing Is Almost Pointless – Marginal Revolution
• This State Is Where Young People Prefer To Buy Property the Most – Realtor.com
• Denver Housing Market Is Hit With an Explosion of Listings—How Far Could Home Prices Fall? – Realtor.com