The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Cephas Naanwaab:

“Recent trends in inequality have raised concerns among researchers and policymakers globally. The role of globalization, one of the leading forces driving this trend, continues to be intensely debated in academic and policy circles. Invoking standard trade theory, this paper analyses whether and the extent to which trade liberalization has contributed to the recent trends in inequality. The approach and findings of the paper are novel: previous studies of trade liberalization’s impact on inequality do not explicitly control the direction of trade. The empirical results show that trade liberalization is associated with decreasing income inequality overall, but contingent on the direction of trade, it has opposing effects: North–North and South–South trade are inequality-reducing while North–South trade is inequality-increasing. Simply put, liberalizing trade between countries of similar developmental levels does not raise inequality. This paper affirms, using recent data, that trade with developing countries raises inequality in developed countries. Additionally, it finds that North–South trade (particularly imports from high-income to low-income countries) may also raise inequality in developing countries, contrary to Heckscher–Ohlin–Stolper–Samuelson model predictions. Skill-biased technical change, a consequence of trade liberalization between North and South, is the main mechanism driving inequality increases in developing countries.”

From a paper by Jarosław Brodny, Magdalena Tutak, and Wieslaw Wes Grebski:

“One of the foremost challenges in today’s global economy is ensuring energy security for individual countries and regions. In the contemporary context, this security plays a pivotal role in ensuring sovereignty, fostering innovation, and bolstering competitiveness, particularly in knowledge-based economies. The pursuit of energy independence while mitigating adverse environmental impacts stands as a key priority in European Union policy. Efforts towards achieving a zero-carbon economy encompass all member states, including those in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This paper delves into this pressing issue by evaluating the sustainable energy security and policy efficiency of CEE countries over a 15-year period. This research employed a well-defined methodology, employing a multidimensional approach to address the complexity of the issue. The outcome of this approach was the development of the Sustainable Energy Security Index (SESI) for the countries under study, serving as a benchmark for evaluating energy security and policy effectiveness. Multiple Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, including COPRAS, EDAS, MAIRCA, and the Hurwicz criterion, were utilized to determine the SESI value. Additionally, CRITIC, equal weights, standard deviation methods, and Laplace’s criterion were employed to ascertain the weights of the indices characterizing various dimensions of sustainable energy security. The findings reveal significant disparities in energy security and policy implementation effectiveness among CEE countries. Slovenia, Croatia, Latvia, Romania, and Hungary demonstrated notably strong performance, while Poland and Bulgaria lagged behind. These results underscore the necessity of integrating findings into the energy and climate strategies of both CEE countries and the EU-27 as a whole.”

On cross-country:

• The housing crisis deepens in developed countries. The housing crisis worsens as property prices rise and incomes stagnate, affecting affordability and economic well-being throughout developed nations. – GIS

Working papers and conferences:

• Concentration in Mortgage Markets: GSE Exposure and Risk-Taking in Uncertain Times – Philadelphia Fed
• Not all housing cycles are created equal: Macroeconomic consequences of housing booms – VoxEU
• The impact of rent controls: Lessons from Catalonia – VoxEU
• The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates on Housing Market Dynamics – SSRN
• Housing Policy for the New Paradigm: Lessons Learned from the World Bank Disaster Recovery Projects – SSRN

On China:

• Estate agents in China are trying everything to sell flats. You can place your deposit in bushels of wheat or strings of garlic – The Economist
• Property sales at Chinese developer Country Garden drop by over a third. Revenue slump highlights extent of real estate slowdown now in its fourth year – FT

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Housing is less affordable than ever. Of all the problems facing Australia today, few have worsened so rapidly in the past 25 years as housing affordability.  – Grattan
• [Australia] Housing dream turned nightmare weighs on Australian voters ahead of national election – Reuters
• [Australia] Australia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Australia] Australia home prices hit new record in March after rate cut, CoreLogic data shows – Reuters
• [Australia] Australian house prices hit new peak as rate cut drives buyer demand. Tougher conditions for first home buyers – and renters, who are now often spending more than those with mortgages – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australian House Prices Reach Fresh High Ahead of May Election – Bloomberg
• [Australia] RBA Says Victoria Recorded Biggest Increase in Mortgage Arrears – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Housing Market Has Entered Upturn, CoreLogic Says – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Improving housing affordability in Canada takes a backseat – RBC
• [Canada] Trump is gunning for Canada—and Canadian homeowners in the U.S. want out. A property sell-off has already begun, and brokers expect it to get worse. – Fast Company
• [Canada] Canada’s housing market ‘not immune’ to trade war pain, economist says – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Toronto Home Sales Plunge as Trade War Hits Consumer Confidence – Bloomberg
• [Cambodia] Cambodia’s Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Germany] House prices in city centers fall more sharply than in other neighborhoods – KIEL
• [India] India’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Japan] Japan Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Norway] Norway Home Prices Rise at Slowest Pace Since Last July – Bloomberg
• [Pakistan] Pakistan’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Slovenia] Housing: Who can afford to rent in the Slovenian capital? – European Data Journalism Network
• [Spain] How Housing Speculation Created Environmental Crisis in Spain. The floods that hit Spain last year were more than just a natural disaster. They were exacerbated by housing developers who built homes in the most flood-prone areas. – Jacobin
• [Spain] Barcelona Becomes Ground Zero for Europe’s Housing Dilemma. The Spanish city’s woes mirror a broader affordable-housing crunch spreading rapidly across Europe and driving inequality. – New York Times
• [Spain] In Spain, a Race for the Last Golden Visas. The residency-by-investment program meant to stimulate the economy was so popular that Spain had to shut it down. – New York Times
• [Turkey] Turkey Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] You can’t grow an economy by crushing aspiration. Few will weep for second-home owners paying extra council tax — but the successful know when they’re not wanted – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Demand Eases as Time Runs Out on Tax Break – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Early March Drop – NAHB
• FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores – Calculated Risk
• 82% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt Has a Sub-6% Rate – Realtor.com
• What Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Moves Mean for Home Prices and Mortgage Rates – Realtor.com
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year. 7 of the 10 cities with largest price declines are in Florida! – Calculated Risk
• Breaking Down the Price of a New Home in the U.S. – Visual Capitalist
• California Home Prices May Drop Soon as Housing Market Flashes Warning, Real Estate CEO Says – Realtor.com
• Jackson Hole’s Housing Market Isn’t Coming Back Down to Earth Anytime Soon. Prices at the luxury level remain as high as ever, as those who bought property during Covid show no signs of selling – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Prices Are Pushing Down Payments to New Highs—See How Much More Homebuyers Are Paying – Realtor.com
• Down Payments Continue Upward, Hitting a Q4 Peak – Realtor.com
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February. Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Equals Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic) – Calculated Risk

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Homebuilder inventory hits 2009 levels: These are the housing markets where you can find deals. In February 2025, the number of unsold completed new single-family homes in the U.S. hit the highest level since summer 2009. – Fast Company
• Moody’s: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High – Calculated Risk
• Manhattan Home Sales Soar as Buyers Seize on Mortgage Rate Dips – Bloomberg
• Soft Job Openings Estimate for Construction – NAHB
• Private Residential Construction Spending Rises in February – NAHB
• Manufactured Homes: An Alternative Means of Housing Supply – NAHB
• America’s housing crisis is solvable—if we choose to build – Fortune

On other developments:    

• Middle-Class Americans in Only These 20 States Can Afford an Average-Priced Home Where They Live – Realtor.com
• Housing market sees biggest home-flipping pullback since 2007. A new survey reveals how home flippers are moving forward in today’s affordability-constrained housing market. – Fast Company
• Hurricane Helene’s Impact on Housing in Western North Carolina – Richmond Fed
• Homeowners Are Sitting on $34.7 Trillion in Equity—but Mortgage Debt Is Growing – Realtor.com
• The Last Abundance Agenda. In the 1980s, Wall Street vowed to make housing more affordable through deregulation of housing finance. The result was the 2008 crisis. – The American Prospect
• Everyone is Moving to Florida. Walking you through my analysis of migration – Home Economics
• Will cheap housing lead to more babies? The connection between housing and fertility rates has a missing piece. – Vox
• Surveying Missing Middle Housing—Trends in the United States and Massachusetts – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies 

From a paper by Joe Piacentini, Harley Frazis, Peter B. Meyer, Michael Schultz, and Leo Sveikauskas:

“This paper surveys economic literature largely from 2020 and 2021 on how the COVID-19 pandemic and responses to it affect U.S. income inequality. Established trends of growing inequality may continue roughly as before, involving new technologies, international trade, and the growth of “superstar” firms. Employment, earnings, and schooling were affected differently across demographic groups and occupations. The pandemic disrupted lower-paid, service sector employment most, disadvantaging women and lower income groups at least temporarily, and this may have scarring effects. Government policies implemented in response to the pandemic offset much of the effect on income. Higher-paid workers tend to gain more from continuing opportunities to telework. Less-advantaged students suffered greater educational setbacks from school closures. School and day care closures disrupted the work of many parents, particularly mothers. We conclude that the pandemic is likely to widen income inequality over the long run, because the lasting changes in work patterns, consumer demand, and production will benefit higher income groups and erode opportunities for some less advantaged groups. Telework has increased permanently. High-contact jobs and services may continue to face reduced demand and increased automation. School disruptions have been worse for lower-income students and are likely to have lingering negative effects, which may widen future inequality within more recent birth cohorts. The history of the 1918 flu shows that the effect of a pandemic on inequality in income, education, health, and wealth depends on the nature of the pandemic and on behavioral and policy responses.”