The Unassuming Economist

From a book chapter by Sylvio Kappes, Louis-Philippe Rochon, Guillaume Vallet:

“With the recent resurgence of inflation — which had been dormant for the better part of the last 3 decades — monetary policy has once again taken centre stage as the only possible policy solution to inflation or the only game in town. Fiscal policy was never considered, and there has been no mention of the possibility of using fiscal policy to fight inflation except in some heterodox circles. As such, the entire responsibility to fight inflation was laid at the feet of independent central banks.”

From a paper by Cheol-Keun Cho and Myunghyun Kim:

“We consider a proxy FAVAR (Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression) model to analyze the
impact of an oil supply news shock on the Korean economy. To identify an oil supply news shock, we
use the variation in oil futures prices around OPEC production announcements as a proxy. Moreover, we
include a factor that captures the common movement of many Korean macro variables such as various
price indices and investment. The estimation results of the proxy FAVAR model show that an oil supply
news shock increases the real oil price and the US CPI, and decreases world oil production and US GDP.
As for Korean macro variables, GDP and net exports fall and CPI increases in response to the shock.”

Working papers and conferences:

• Affordable housing, unaffordable credit? Concentration and high-cost lending for manufactured homes – CEPR
• Housing and fertility – VoxEU
• Coverage Neglect in Homeowner’s Insurance – Philadelphia Fed
• What Drives the Capitalization of Energy Efficiency into House Prices?  Evidence from Italy – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• National Housing Survey. Consumer Housing Sentiment Down Year over Year for First Time Since 2023 – Fannie Mae
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February – Calculated Risk
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 – Calculated Risk
• 50 tightest housing markets where sellers will have the most power this spring. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, 50 markets at the end of February 2025 still had at least 46% less-active inventory than in February 2019. – Fast Company
• These Unpopular Mortgages May Be the Key to Affordable Housing. Adjustable rate mortgages, which fell out of favor during the financial crisis, may well be ready for a comeback. – Bloomberg
• Refinancing Drives Mortgage Activity Higher in February – NAHB
• Pending Home Sales Are Down 6%, But Falling Mortgage Rates Are Starting to Attract Buyers – Redfin
• Buyers Have More Homes To Choose From as Mortgage Rates Drop—While Jobs Report Shows Unemployment Ticking Higher – Realtor.com
• Government Mortgage Relief Is No ‘Cash Cow’. The Mortgage Bankers Association replies to Allysia Finley. – Wall Street Journal
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• How Chicago plans to help its most rent-burdened residents – Axios
• 44 housing markets where inventory has spiked, and homebuyers have gained power. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, these 44 metro areas now have active inventory at or above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
• Housing Supply Gap Reaches Nearly 4 Million in 2024 – Realtor.com
• It Will Take 7 Years To Fix the Housing Shortage at Current Construction Pace, Economists Say – Realtor.com
• The Impact of Opportunity Zones on Housing Supply – Economic Innovation Group
• Year-over-Year Declines for Construction Job Openings – NAHB
• Builders’ Profit Margins Improved in 2023 – NAHB
• ATTOM Ranks Best Counties for Buying Single-Family Rentals in 2025 – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:    

• Deporting Undocumented Workers Will Make Housing More Expensive. The effect will be most pronounced in Texas and California – Home Economics
• US Homebuyers Confront a New Wild Card This Year: Trump. High rates, high prices and the uncertainty of the White House’s policies are looming over the housing market during the most competitive time of year. – Bloomberg
• J.D. Vance Blames Zoning, Immigrants for High Housing Costs. Plus: Texas and Minnesota consider an aggressive suite of housing supply bills, while San Diego tries to ratchet up regulations on ADUs. – Reason
• Trump administration throws hundreds of affordable housing projects into limbo after contract cuts – AP
• How Rising Costs Affect Home Affordability – NAHB
• Why housing affordability keeps getting worse – Axios
• How federal lands can be used to ease the housing crisis – The Hill
• Abundant Housing Is the Texas Miracle Worker. The State Senate’s Plan to Tackle Affordability – City of Yes
• Buying a Home? Without the Consumer Bureau, You Need to Be Your Own Watchdog. The C.F.P.B. had kept a close eye on mortgage lenders. But with the bureau hobbled, consumers should take several steps, starting with shopping for the best mortgage rates. – New York Times
• What’s Driving the Increasing Importance Consumers Place on Their Homes – Fannie Mae
• What Do We Buy Into When We Buy a Home? Homeownership, long a cherished American ideal, has become the subject of black comedies, midlife-crisis novels, and unintentionally dystopic reality TV. – New Yorker
• How the pandemic transformed the housing market in 5 years – Axios  
• Homes with Extreme Climate Risk Face Slower Sales, Bigger Discounts. Zillow research shows homes with extreme risk of flood and fire have a lower probability of being sold and a lower sales price compared to initial list price. – Zillow
• Urbanism with Chinese characteristics. Plus: Reducing the motherhood penalty by extending fertility, the steam networks of New York City, and the rise and fall of the Hanseatic league. – Work in Progress

On China:

• China’s property sector is showing positive changes, minister says – Reuters

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [New Zealand] New Zealand Home Building Declines For Ninth Straight Quarter – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] What will happen to house prices this year? Major bank changes its mind – RNZ
• [New Zealand] What will happen to house prices this year? Major bank changes its mind – RNZ

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Builders blindsided by CMHC move to block popular mortgage scheme –The Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Mortgage broker sees Ontario home prices ‘grinding down’ amid trade war – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong to press on with selling residential plots amid warnings of oversupply. Development minister Bernadette Linn also says government will not give up on project to build artificial islands in waters off Lantau – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong urged to review public housing income threshold due to new minimum wage. If Housing Authority proposal on income levels is adopted, two-person household working 10 hours a day for 26 days per month at minimum wage will fail to qualify – South China Morning Post
• [Saudi Arabia] Saudi residential real estate to attract $1.22 billion this year, consultancy says – Reuters
• [Spain] Vivienda escasa, precios de burbuja. El coste de las casas subió el año pasado a un ritmo que no se veía desde 2007, algo inasumible para miles de ciudadanos – El Pais
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai’s property market is thriving — and its neighbours are taking notes. Price rises of 147 per cent in five years, soaring skylines and a rush of new residents are an inspiration to some, a cautionary tale to others – FT
• [United Kingdom] Stamp duty deadline and economic gloom dampen UK housing market. Buyer demand fell to lowest level since November 2023 in February, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market has weakest month since late 2023, RICS survey shows – Reuters

From a paper by João Tovar Jalles, and André Teixeira:

“This paper explores the impact of fiscal consolidations on banking behavior, focusing on efficiency and stability. Using a panel dataset covering 194 countries from 1989 to 2020 and employing local projection methods, we find that fiscal consolidations improve bank stability at the expense of efficiency. The decline in efficiency is attributed to reduced operational income, while stability gains stem from improved asset quality and bolstered capital adequacy. The effects are heterogeneous: consolidations have a more substantial negative impact on efficiency in advanced economies, while stability improvements are more pronounced in emerging markets. The size and composition of fiscal adjustments also matter: tax-based consolidations favor stability more than expenditure-based ones. Robustness checks with alternative definitions of fiscal consolidations and non-linear models confirm these findings. The findings emphasize the importance of tailoring fiscal consolidations to country-specific factors to balance stability and efficiency in the banking sector.”

From a paper by Yoosoon Chang, Soyoung Kim, and Joon Y. Park:

“This paper investigates the interactions between macroeconomic aggregates and income distribution
by developing a structural VAR model with functional variables. With this novel empirical approach, we are able to identify and analyze the effects of various shocks to the income distribution on macro aggregates, as well as the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the income distribution. Our main findings are as follows: First, contractionary monetary policy shocks reduce income inequality when focusing solely on the redistributive effects, without considering the negative impact on aggregate income levels. This improvement is achieved by reducing the number of low and high-income families while increasing the proportion of middle-income families. However, when the aggregate income shift is also taken into account, contractionary monetary policy shocks worsen income inequality. Second, shocks to the income distribution have a substantial effect on output fluctuations. For example, income distribution shocks identified to maximize future output levels have a significant and persistent positive effect on output, contributing up to 30% at long horizons and over 50% for the lowest income percentiles. However, alternative income distribution shocks identified to minimize the future Gini index do not have any significant negative effects on output. This finding, combined with the positive effect of output-maximizing income distribution shocks on equality, suggests that properly designed redistributive policies are not subject to the often-claimed trade-off between growth and equality. Moreover, variations in income distribution are primarily explained by shocks to the income distribution itself, rather than by aggregate shocks, including monetary shocks. This highlights the need for redistributive policies to substantially alter the income distribution and reduce inequality.”