The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Ernest Alang Wung, Joslanie Douanla Tameko, and Muhamadu Awal Kindzeka Wirajing:

“This study investigates the effect of external dependency on structural change in 54 African countries between 1990 and 2021. The Two-Step System Generalized Method of Moments strategy is adopted to control for potential endogeneity problems. Findings reveal that structural change in Africa is strongly impaired by the level of external dependency. This is since all proxies of external dependency are negatively and statistically significant with all structural change proxies. For instance, under agricultural productivity, external debts stocks (EDS) give an eigen value (β) of 0.879, standard coefficient (SC) = 0.162, and p = 0.000; for external debt services (DSED), β = 0.240, SC = −0.040, and p = 0.972; and for personal remittances received (PRR), we have β = 0.764, SC = −0.133, and p = 0.031. Depicting that, the more African countries rely on the external world for change, the less they realize this change. The results remain consistent after accounting for income differences by segmenting African countries into low- and middle-income groups. As suggestions to policymakers, for structural change to concretely take place in Africa, the rate of external dependence should be limited, and resources in Africa and local methods of growth should be used rather than copying from the Western world. Though the results are valid across income groups and Africa, the case of countries could be more significant.”

From a paper by Emiliano Brancaccio, Fabiana De Cristofaro, and Raffaele Giammetti:

“The so-called ‘IMF-OECD consensus’ suggests that labour market deregulations increase employment and reduce unemployment. This paper presents a meta-analysis of research on this topic based on MAER-NET guidelines. We examine the relation between Employment Protection Legislation indexes on one hand, and employment and unemployment on the other. Among 53 academic papers published between 1990 and 2019, only 28 per cent support the consensus view, while the remaining 72 per cent report results that are ambiguous (21 per cent) or contrary to the consensus (51 per cent). The decline in support for the consensus view is particularly evident in the last decade. Our results are independent of the citations of papers examined, the impact factor of journals and the techniques used. A FAT-PET meta-regression model confirms these outcomes.”

From a paper by Nora Lustig and Andrea Vigorito:

“Inequality measures based on household surveys may be biased because they typically fail to capture incomes of the wealthy properly. The “missing rich” problem stems from several factors, including sampling errors, item and unit nonresponse, underreporting of income, and data preprocessing techniques like top coding. This paper presents and compares prominent correction approaches to address issues concerning the upper tail of the income distribution in household surveys. Correction approaches are classified based on the data source, distinguishing between those that rely solely on within-survey information and those that combine household survey data with external sources. We categorize the correction methods into three types: replacing, reweighting, and combining reweighting and replacing. We identify twenty-two different approaches that have been applied in practice. We show that both levels and trends can be quite sensitive to the approach and provide broad guidelines on choosing a suitable correction approach.”

From a paper by Khadijah Iddrisu, Joshua Yindenaba Abor, Osman Issah, and Felix Owusu Gyebi:

“This chapter investigates the crucial role of monetary policy in shaping economic outcomes and promoting inclusive growth, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. It begins by defining monetary policy and detailing the tools used by central banks, including unconventional methods like quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance. The discussion highlights the importance of central bank independence (CBI) for protecting policy decisions from political influence and bolstering market credibility. It addresses the challenges central banks face in implementing monetary policy and provides an overview of inclusive growth. The chapter further explores how monetary policy impacts inclusive growth, examining its specific role during economic uncertainty. It also analyses the challenges, opportunities and future prospects of monetary policy in fostering inclusive growth amid economic instability. This thorough analysis emphasises the dynamic nature of monetary policy and its essential function in stabilising economies while advancing equity and development.”

Working papers and conferences:

• Did the Modern Mortgage Set the Stage for the U.S. Baby Boom? – NBER
• Ownership Profile of Single-Family Residence Properties in Philadelphia: A Focus on Large Corporate Investors – Philadelphia Fed
• Non-Homothetic Housing Demand and Geographic Worker Sorting – SSRN
• Testing for Persistence in Real House Prices in 47 Countries from the OECD Database – SSRN
• Housing Wealth Across Countries: The Role of Expectations, Institutions and Preferences – SSRN
• Fifty-Year-Olds and the Housing Demand Channel of Monetary Policy – SSRN    

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• The outlook for the US housing market in 2025. With several variables impacting the U.S. housing market — from soaring home prices to rock-bottom demand — where’s the sector headed in 2025? – J.P. Morgan
• Trump Housing Market Warning Issued by JPMorgan Chase – Newsweek
• Four Housing Market Predictions For Industry Professionals To Watch In 2025 – Forbes
• Housing Prices Are Stuck, and So Is the Fed – Barron’s
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – Mortgage Bankers Association
• Fannie Mae Underpins the Mortgage Market. Should the Government Sell It? Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were bailed out by the government during the housing crisis nearly 17 years ago. The Trump administration is considering letting them go private again. – New York Times
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January – Calculated Risk
• Is it a buyer’s or seller’s housing market? Zillow’s analysis for over 200 metro areas. This interactive housing market map shows where sellers—and buyers—have the most power right now. – Fast Company
• The Top 10 Metros With the Largest Home Price Increases – Realtor.com
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Monthly U.S. Foreclosure Activity Increases in January 2025 – ATTOM
• Home Values in Opportunity Zones Continue to Ride Coattails of National Gains During Fourth Quarter – ATTOM

On the US—other developments:    

• Will Trump Tariffs Harm Home Affordability? Navigating construction material prices amid the new administration’s recent tariffs – CoreLogic
• Canada and Mexico tariffs risk inflating US housing crisis, Trump is warned – The Guardian
• From Missing Middle Housing to Gentle Density: Identifying Affordable Housing Trends Through Policy Tracking – Fiscal Note
• Builders’ Top Challenges for 2025 – NAHB
• Owning a Home More Affordable Than Renting Across U.S. but Both Still Pose Significant Burdens – ATTOM
• Overall Housing Sentiment Ticks Higher Despite Consumers’ Growing Affordability Concerns. Sharply Higher Share of Survey Respondents Expects Rent Prices to Rise – Fannie Mae
• Affordable housing is in short supply across the US. Atlanta may have found a way forward. Mayor Andre Dickens is turning to Atlanta’s own land and resources to create new development opportunities – The Guardian
• A Sore Spot in L.A.’s Housing Crisis: Foreign-Owned Homes Sitting Empty. International buyers, particularly from China, have contributed to the hundreds of thousands of vacant properties in Los Angeles County – Wall Street Journal 
• Non-Cash Rentals House More than Two Million Renters Affordably – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Aging Boomers Are About to Rekindle the Senior-Housing Market. The oldest baby boomers turn 80 in less than a year, and the senior housing market is moving from glut to shortage – Wall Street Journal
• Investing in housing: Unlocking economic mobility for Black families and all Americans – McKinsey
• How to house all Americans. Henry Cisneros and Cullum Clark discuss how to finally end the U.S. housing crisis – George Bush Institute
• Where Were the Top 15 Cities for Home Sales Growth in 2024. Although U.S. home sales decreased in 2024 compared with 2023, some metro areas still posted substantial sales growth – CoreLogic
• Zillow Revenue Grows but Outlook Collides With Subdued Housing Market. Home-listing site projects gains will continue despite challenges including high mortgage rates that have dampened the housing market – Wall Street Journal 
• Housing Unaffordability Is A Policy Choice Not A Technology Problem – Forbes
• The prophet of parking. A eulogy for the great Donald Shoup – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• D.C. mayor proposes permanent rollback of pandemic-era housing protections. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser said the legislation is an attempt to support affordable housing providers who are in crisis mode over unpaid rent. Tenant advocates are worried. – Washington Post
• Multifamily Developer Confidence Reflected Mixed Results in the Fourth Quarter – NAHB

On China:

• Why China Can’t Sort Out Its Property Market Mess – Bloomberg
• China’s Property Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase. Risks grow as authorities are forced into a first mainland rescue and iconic Hong Kong developer New World’s bonds sink into distress. – Bloomberg
• Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of House Price Bubble Risks in Provincial Areas of China – SSRN

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] The U.S. Housing Market vs. The Australian Housing Market – A Wealth of Common Sense
• [New Zealand] New Zealand hints at letting more foreign investors buy homes – The Straits Times

On other countries:  

• [Andorra] Andorra’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Belgium] Belgium’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] Canada’s housing market outlook: Sustaining recovery in uncertain times – RBC
• [Hungary] Hungary’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Ireland] Tackling housing challenges and reducing public finance vulnerabilities would boost Ireland’s economic resilience and living standards – OECD
• [Portugal] Portugal court spares big banks from paying millions in fines for mortgage collusion – Reuters
• [Romania] Romania’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Saudi Arabia] Saudi Arabia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Spain] New forecasts for the Spanish real estate sector: the expansionary cycle takes hold in 2025. In 2024, Spain’s real estate market enjoyed a remarkable recovery, with a significant increase in both house prices and sales. Factors such as the growth of gross disposable income, foreign demand and falling rates drove this trend. In this article, we unveil our forecasts for 2025 and explain why we expect this boom to continue. – CaixaBank
• [United Kingdom] The problem with taxing overseas homebuyers. The UK has tinkered with taxes on foreign buyers for a decade — but has it actually helped locals? – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices jump as tax deadline looms, lender Halifax says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices jump to new high as stamp duty rise looms, says Halifax. Average property price increases by 0.7% in January to record £299,138 as market starts year ‘on positive note’ – The Guardian 
• [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market’s Spring Could Come Early. Declining rates and limited supply point to stronger property prices. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK housing market cools in January but surveyors stay upbeat – Reuters
• [Vietnam] Vietnam’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide