The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: First Quarter 2025 – NAHB
• Price Cuts on Home Listings Surge to 9-Year High—and These 3 Cities Lead the Trend – Realtor.com
• Home Prices Pick Up Steam in the Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Homebuyers face less housing market competition from investors right now. Two-thirds of single-family investors are struggling to find properties for sale that generate positive cash flow. – Fast Company 
• The Trump administration is working on a plan for time limits on rental aid – NPR
• Should federal rental aid come with a time limit? Here’s how it works in one place – NPR
• Fannie and Freddy back again – The Grumpy Economist
• It’s a Buyer-Friendly Housing Market as Mortgage Rates Dip – Realtor.com
• Trump Unlikely To Privatize Fannie and Freddie This Year, Says Mortgage Bankers Association CEO – Realtor.com
• The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q1. Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q1 – Calculated Risk

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• More Evidence of How Housing Regulation Is Bad for Housing – AEI
• Gentrification as a housing problem. The root cause is inflexible supply – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 31, 2025 – Realtor.com
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• 10 states with the biggest housing market inventory shift. At the end of May 2025, 10 states had more active housing inventory for sale than they did in May 2019. – Fast Company
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025 2025 – Calculated Risk
• May 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• AI’s Role in Reshaping Employment: From Theory to Home Building Sector Impacts – NAHB  
• Why developers have stopped building apartments – Axios
• Investors Are Selling a Record Share of Homes To Cut Their Losses—Especially in These 5 States – Realtor.com
• Deporting Undocumented Workers Will Make Housing More Expensive – Home Economics
• 75 housing markets where inventory is catching up—fast. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, these 75 metro areas now have active inventory at or above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
• The Housing Lobby’s Tax Boondoggle
• Republicans may expand a credit that subsidizes real-estate developers. – Wall Street Journal
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending June 7, 2025 – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• Making the case for housing as a human right – NPR 
• Homeownership remains out of reach for many. What will it take to change that? – McKinsey
• Homesteading 2.0: A Proposal to Make Housing Affordable Again – AEI
• The Crime of Treating Housing as a Commodity. In New York City, working-class tenants are often victimized by predatory landlords. Their horror stories show the need for radical housing reform inside and outside the city. – Jacobin
• A West Virginia Salary Of Less Than $35K Will Let You Settle Into a Starter Home With Ease – Realtor.com
• Housing Subsidies Boost Costs – Cato
• U.S. Foreclosure Activity Sees a Slight Monthly Decrease in May 2025 – ATTOM
• World Bank Paints a Bleak Picture of the U.S. Economy—What It Means for Homebuyers and Sellers – Realtor.com
• States Can Help End the U.S. Housing Crisis Through Smart Policies – George W. Bush Presidential Center
• Slumlord Millionaire: how landlords, politicians and developers are fueling the housing crisis. New documentary examines how predatory practices, from inhospitable conditions to deed theft, affect New Yorkers – The Guardian
• Homeowners Are 43 Times Wealthier Than Renters – Realtor.com

From a paper by Zamid Aligishiev and Hamed Ghiaie:

“This paper investigates dynamic relationships between U.S. government expenditure multipliers
and the economy’s cyclical position from 1949 to 2018 using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. We challenge the existing literature, which predominantly relies on predefined economic regimes and assumes a stable relationship between fiscal multipliers and business cycles. Our findings identify two distinct periods: fiscal multipliers were counter-cyclical from 1949 to the late 1980s, followed by a significant decline in their effectiveness during recessions thereafter. These variations are attributed to the prevailing fiscal-monetary policy mix; with higher fiscal multipliers during earlier recessions resulting from sharp shifts toward a fiscally led policy stance, followed by a decline after the Dot-com recession due to a transition toward a monetary-led policy mix. We find particularly low multipliers during the global financial crisis, which provides new insights into the evolving role of financial frictions in the transmission of fiscal policy.”

From a book by K. R. Shanmugam:

“This book extensively examines various contemporary public finance themes of India, namely fiscal policy and macro economy, public expenditure policy, tax policy, fiscal transfers policy, public debt policy and fiscal imbalance, and environment and climate finance policies. It has three to five chapters devoted to each of these broad themes, with the contributors being eminent economists from the region. While the topics are specific to Indian public finance, they are relevant to global audience to understand about Indian public finance themes and make a comparison with public finance in other countries. The findings and suggestions given in each chapter are based on the latest data, using current methodologies, and are relevant to the times. The book serves as an excellent reference for students in economics, public finance, political science and management, and a valuable tool for professionals such as policymakers, fiscal analysts, and other stakeholders in the areas of global economics and public and finance, in general, and India in particular.”

From a paper by Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira:

“Since the Covid-19 pandemic, many economic policy protocols have come under scrutiny regarding their ability to handle unforeseen events and systemic effects. In particular, inflation targeting regimes have been questioned due to significant inflationary deviations resulting from a substantial rise in firms’ operating costs and, simultaneously, the necessary accommodation of shocks by central banks through a reduction in real interest rates to address the recessionary impacts of the pandemic. This brief article explores institutional channels and builds an original optimization analysis of the trade-off between flexibility and credibility as attributes of monetary policy, thereby highlighting aspects that make inflation targeting regimes a resilient framework for dealing with the structural uncertainty surrounding central bank decisions in the post-Covid era.”

From a paper by Nezir Köse and Ali Talih Süt:

“This study proposes an implicit index for central bank credibility, which is critical in developing countries implementing an inflation-targeting regime. In a credible central bank, the policy rate impacts the interest rate on short-term deposits. Under this assumption, the residuals obtained from the panel regression model, in which deposit rates are defined as dependent and policy rates as independent variables, are used to calculate the implicit credibility index of central banks. The proposed central bank implicit credibility index was calculated using monthly data from 12 developing countries and New Zealand implementing the inflation targeting regime between January 2006 and June 2023. According to average implicit credibility scores, the most credible central banks for the period between 2006 and 2023 are Thailand, South Africa, and New Zealand, respectively. The results of the fixed effects model using the annual data of the 13 countries between 2006 and 2022 indicate that inflation and its uncertainties have negative effects on the implicit credibility index of the central bank. These results indicate that central banks in developing countries with high inflation and inflation uncertainty may have difficulty in ensuring credibility.”