The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Homeowners Are Pouncing on the Tiniest Drop in Mortgage Rates. A small drop in rates in recent weeks triggered an outsize response from borrowers – Wall Street Journal
• Refinancing Activity Surges in September – NAHB
• New approach to credit scoring data could reshape US home lending. Shares of Equifax and Experian sink after Fair Isaac Corp moves to sell its ratings directly to industry data groups – FT
•  Credit bureaus snubbed in ‘Fico’ plan to sell mortgage scores direct to users. Shares of Equifax and Experian sink after Fair Isaac Corp moves to sell credit scores directly to industry data groups – FT
• October ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Home Prices Firm” in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Home Prices Surge to Five Times Median Income, Nearing Historic Highs – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• September 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Is the Housing Market Stabilizing? – Home Economics

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Architects: Heed the Construction Slump – Home Economics
• The Housing Shortage Is Over (Sort Of) – Bloomberg
• Supply-Side Cost Pressures Drove Housing as Inflation Leader in 2024 – NAHB
• Recent tariffs threaten residential construction – Brookings
• Shorter Apartment Construction Time in 2024 – NAHB
• Trump Urges Homebuilders To Boost Construction and Stop ‘Sitting on Empty Lots’ – Realtor.com
• Minority-Owned Residential Building Firms Continue to Rise – NAHB
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September – Calculated Risk
• Trump Urges Homebuilders To Boost Construction and Stop ‘Sitting on Empty Lots’ – Realtor.com
• Remodeling Market Sentiment Improves in Third Quarter – NAHB
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Tiny Homes Aim to Address Shortage on Lakota Reservation. A local Y.M.C.A. branch in South Dakota partnered with a Brooklyn-based firm to design tiny homes as existing two-bedrooms swell with 10 to 15 people. – New York Times
• Fed Officials Discussed Risk of Housing Market Collapse at Recent Meeting to Cut Interest Rates – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• What the Government Shutdown Could Mean for Housing – Zillow
• Housing Affordability? Build, Baby, Build – AEI
• Government Shutdown Adds Uncertainty to Housing Market as Mortgage Rates Tick Up Again – Realtor.com
• Shutdown Adds to the D.C. Housing Market’s Challenges. Many federal workers who took buyouts earlier this year aren’t getting paid, and the government shutdown could add to region’s unemployment – Wall Street Journal
• 93% of Americans Say Housing Costs Are Too High—and These Are the Factors They Blame – Realtor.com
• The Atlanta Fed Examines Housing Affordability Challenges in Music City – Atlanta Fed
• Cash is King: Trends in All-Cash Home Sales – Realtor.com
• Homebuyer Sentiment Remains Muted as Most Say It’s Still a Bad Time to Buy – Realtor.com
• Is New Housing Popular? It depends who you ask, how you ask, and when you ask. – Reason
• How Zillow makes renting easier, fairer and more affordable for everyone. By partnering with trusted platforms like Redfin and Realtor.com, Zillow is expanding access to rental listings, lowering costs for housing providers, and providing renters with a clearer and simpler way to find their next home – Zillow 
• Quantitative easing and housing inflation post-COVID – Brookings
• How the Affordable Rental Housing Crisis is Hurting Hispanics – CEPR 
• Single-Family vs. Multifamily Homes—Which Builds Equity Faster? – Realtor.com

On cross-country:

• World’s real estate worth $393.3 trillion and is the world’s largest store of wealth. The value of all global real estate (residential and commercial real estate, and agricultural land) was $393.3 trillion as of the start of 2025, according to Savills, maintaining the asset’s position as the world’s most significant store of wealth. – Savills
• EU housing plan to tackle speculation, short-term rentals. Brussels wants more public cash to build homes — and insists they be genuinely affordable. – Politico

Working papers and conferences:

• Price and Volume Divergence in China’s Real Estate Markets: The Role of Local Governments – NBER
• The Impact of Carcinogenic Risk Exposure on Housing Values: Estimates From Chemical Reclassifications – NBER
• How Mortgage Lock-In Affects the Price of Housing – Philadelphia Fed
• Understanding the Lag Between CPI Shelter Inflation and Market Rents – NBER

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Sydney remains ground zero for Australia’s housing crisis – Grattan Institute
• [Australia] It’s about to get easier to buy your first home as Australia’s first home guarantee expands. The guarantee slashes the deposit requirements for a loan, reducing the savings wait time for people earning enough to pay off a home loan – The Guardian
• [Australia] Michele Bullock says ‘nothing I can do personally’ about house prices – as it happened – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Rise for First Time in Six Months – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Argentina] Argentina Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong may relaunch public flat purchase scheme but not in near future. Housing minister Winnie Ho says cautious approach and timing key to success of purchase scheme and protection of supply – South China Morning Post
• [Korea] Seoul’s Apartment Prices Rise for 34th Week as Pace Picks Up – Bloomberg
• [Mexico] Mexico’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Saudi Arabia] Saudi Arabia Orders Freeze on Riyadh Rents After Price Surge – Bloomberg
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Prices Accelerate Again After New Buying Wave – Bloomberg
• [Slovakia] Slovakia’s Residential Real Estate Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [South Korea] South Korea’s Property Market Rally Clouds Case for BOK Rate Cut – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Spain’s student housing draws global investors as overseas enrolment booms – Bloomberg
• [Turkey] Turkey Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] Dubai Residential Market Overview – August 2025 – REIDIN
• [United Kingdom] London considers lowering affordable homes target to spur house building. Developers complain that 35% goal is too high and makes schemes unviable – FT
• [United Kingdom] Latest House Price Index Report – hometrack
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise more than expected in September. Low unemployment and buoyant wages underpin gains, says lender Nationwide – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices return to growth amid ‘broad stability’ in market. Nationwide says prices rose by 0.5% in September after August drop, lifting average price of property to £271,995 – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise more than expected in September. Low unemployment and buoyant wages underpin gains, says lender Nationwide – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise slightly more than expected in September, Nationwide data shows – Reuters   
• [United Kingdom] Think twice before rushing to fix the UK’s broken property taxes. It took us a generation to get into the present council tax mess and would take another to emerge with minimal scars – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year. Punta Gorda House Prices Down almost 20% from Peak – Calculated Risk
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July. FHFA House Prices up 2.3% YoY in July – Calculated Risk
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 10.0% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Rates Continue Downward Trend in September – NAHB
• Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – MBA
• Homeowners With Sub-4% Mortgage Rates Are On the Move—and They’re Buying Newly Built Homes – Realtor.com 
• Falling Mortgage Rates Could Unlock These 10 Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• FHFA’s Q2 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores – Calculated Risk
• 5 Key Takeaways: Mortgage Rates Could Drop Below 6% – Realtor.com
• 80% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt Has a Sub-6% Rate – Realtor.com
• Share of Mortgages with Rates Above 6% Climbs to 10-Year High as Americans Adapt to New Normal – Redfin
• Where Falling Mortgage Rates Could Spark the Most Change – Realtor.com
• Rise of ‘Accidental Landlords’ Is Bad News for Investors Who Bet Big on Rentals. Problems in the for-sale housing market are starting to infect the rental business – Wall Street Journal
• The end of rent debt? Tenants are going on strike against their landlords. – Vox
• A rent freeze is not the answer to New York’s housing crisis. If he is elected mayor, Zohran Mamdani should concentrate on expanding supply – FT

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Home Sales Fell in August, Slowed by High Home Prices. Median home price rises to $422,600, up 2% from year ago and highest price ever for month of August – Wall Street Journal
• What if local control can actually help build housing? Some places want to build. Maybe we should just let them. – Noahpinion
• Developers look to New York’s vacant offices to meet high housing demand. Manhattan has become increasingly residential since the pandemic as more commercial properties are converted – FT
• Three Levers to Unlock 1.5 Million Homes a Year – AEI
• Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales – Calculated Risk
• US pending home sales rebound in August amid low mortgage rates – Reuters
• Pending Home Sales Rise in August as Falling Mortgage Rates Finally Spur Activity – Realtor.com
• Construction Labor Market Softens – NAHB
• AEI Housing Market Indicators, September 2025 – AEI
• Goldman Says Looser Land Rules May Ease US’s Housing Squeeze – Bloomberg
• 17% of NAHB Builders Built Age-Restricted Housing in 2024 – NAHB
• Square Foot Prices Moderate in 2024 – NAHB
• Sellers in Top Buyer’s Markets Are Sweetening Deals With Discounts – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• The Rise of ‘Accidental Landlords’. When properties don’t sell, it may be time to get a tenant. – New York Times
• New York City’s Suburbs Heat Up as Residents Move in Anticipation of a Mamdani Win – Realtor.com
• Housing secretary says work will start on three new towns before election. Steve Reed hails predecessor Angela Rayner as ‘true working-class hero’ and accuses Tories of blocking new homes – The Guardian
• Characteristics of Homes Built in Age-Restricted Communities – NAHB
• Does the Zillow rent measure help predict CPI rent inflation? – Econbrowser 
• Two-Thirds of Working-Age Renters Struggle to Afford Basic Needs – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic) – Calculated Risk
• Real Estate Visualized: America’s Home Buyers by Generation – Visual Capitalist
• ATTOM Launches Transparent Owner to Reveal True Property Ownership – ATTOM
• Home Values Rise Slightly in July Nationwide but Drop in These 7 Major Cities – Realtor.com
• Strong Foundations Shows Every Community a Way Forward on Housing – AEI
• Why a shutdown looms over the housing market. The National Flood Insurance Program is set to lapse along with government funding. – Politico
• The Housing Hero Gotham Deserved. Plus: New York’s expensive new stove regulations, Los Angeles rent controls, and the housing policy implications of a federal shutdown. – Reason
• How an infrastructure financing law can help build thousands of homes and expand transit access – Brookings
• A Once Unstoppable Luxury Housing Market Is Starting to Crack Economic uncertainty has taken a toll on wealthy buyers and sellers – Wall Street Journal
• New Tariffs Could Worsen America’s Housing Crisis. President Trump’s tariffs on timber, wood, furniture and kitchen cabinets could raise the cost of building and buying a home. – New York Times
• A Boring Housing Market Is Good News for Buyers. Sellers appear to realise that “peak” pricing is now in the past. – Bloomberg

On cross-country:

• Home economics: the tax roulette of buying a house in Europe. House buying costs vary from zero to thousands of euros, depending on where you buy – FT

Working papers and conferences:

• Is There a Puzzle in Underwater Mortgage Default? – Boston Fed
• Supply Constraints Do Not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities – San Francisco Fed
• Organizational Form and Thrift Risk During the US Housing Boom and Bust – Cleveland Fed 
• Do Banks Price Flood Risk in Mortgage Origination: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in New Orleans – FED
• Conference: Housing affordability: what is new? in Zagreb, Croatia, on 26 September 2025 – Institute of Public Finance
• Homeownership and Housing Equity in the Mid-Twentieth Century – FED
• Under Pressure: Financial Stress and Housing Payments – Philadelphia FED

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [New Zealand] New Zealand woos the wealthy with golden visa changes. The country is introducing a minimum property investment of $3mn as part of a plan to entice foreigners seeking ‘a safe haven’ or outdoor lifestyle – FT

On other countries:  

• [Ireland] Mortgage rules have stopped house prices from rising even more quickly, says Central Bank. Deputy governor Vasileios Madouros said the rules, introduced in 2015, guard against the damaging effects of unsustainable mortgage lending – Irish Independent
• [Germany] German home prices rise as depressed property sector seeks momentum – Reuters
• [Singapore] What’s behind Singapore’s world-high property transaction costs? Island nation has tried to calm foreign property demand by adding fees – FT
• [Switzerland] Switzerland Holds Vote on Abolishing $2.1 Billion Property Tax – Bloomberg
• [United Arab Emirates] UAE Residential Property Price Report – August 2025 – REIDIN
• [United Arab Emirates] Will Dubai’s super-hot property market avoid a crash? Despite fears of a reckoning, its fundamentals look solid – The Economist
• [Vietnam] Vietnam PM calls for more housing to cool real estate prices – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Mortgage Interest Rates Today: Mortgage Rates Dip to 6.26% Following Long-Awaited Fed Cut – Realtor.com
• How the Fed’s rate cut impacts mortgage rates – AP
• Mapping Home Price Changes – New York Fed
• Household Formation Drives Housing Demand – Calculated Risk
• Housing prices are causing some people to have smaller families than planned – NPR

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Lennar’s Profit Sinks as Housing Market Remains Stalled. The homebuilder’s profit fell for a fourth consecutive quarter – Wall Street Journal
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Homes Are Built Faster in 2024 – NAHB
• Housing Supply Drops Most in 2 Years as Sluggish Demand Spooks Sellers – Redfin 
• One reason so many seniors are staying in large homes. Congress should raise capital gains exemptions for seniors to address shortage of homes for sale. – Washington Post
• Home equity loans will keep US housing market tight. Downsizing has become less appealing to older generations, lowering inventory of property sales – FT
• With New Plan, Hochul Fast-Tracks Housing Supply. A new program will put manufactured homes at the center of a statewide effort to make housing more affordable. – New York Times  
• California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 5th Straight Month – Calculated Risk
• Summer 2025 Was the Strongest Buyer’s Market in Records Dating Back Over a Decade – Redfin
• Single-Family Construction Loan Volume Falls Back – NAHB
• New Home Sales Post Unexpected Large Gain in August – NAHB
• New Home Sales increased to 800,000 Annual Rate in August. Median New Home Price is Down 10% from the Peak due to Change in Mix – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Fall in August Amid Higher Mortgage Rates – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in August. Median House Prices Increased 2.0% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk

On other developments:    

• Introducing JobsWatch – Home Economics
• Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy – Stanford
• A Three-Legged Affordability Agenda! Just out from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, by yours truly and the great Neale Mahoney. – Jared Bernstein
• The 6 states with the highest homeownership rates in America — and the 6 lowest. Learn more about the factors shaping homeownership rates. Plus, get homeownership data for 13 U.S. states – Quartz
• The US Abandoned Affordable Housing. We Can Create It Again. – Jacobin
• Trump Appointees Roll Back Enforcement of Fair Housing Laws. Interviews and internal documents show that signature civil rights protections in housing are being dismissed as ideologically driven and D.E.I. in disguise. – New York Times 
• U.S. Birth Rates Plummet as Home Prices Surge: Here’s How the Housing Market Is Shaping Family Planning – Realtor.com
• The Fed’s Rate Path Is Too Cautious to Fix Housing. Growing pessimism about a rebound is taking hold among companies tied to residential construction. – Bloomberg
• Four Easy Fixes for the Housing Crisis – New York Times
• Beyond the numbers: Real families, real barriers — and the practical steps to achieving homeownership. Families share how inequities have shaped their housing journeys. Zillow shares what can be done to create a fairer path to homeownership. – Zillow
• Homeownership Costs, Drop in Home Value Hit Black Households Hardest. Minority households are more likely to be cost-burdened, spending more than 30% of their income on mortgage, property taxes, and insurance. – Zillow
• The American Dream Will Now Cost You $5 Million – Realtor.com
• The Fed’s Rate Path Is Too Cautious to Fix Housing. Growing pessimism about a rebound is taking hold among companies tied to residential construction. – Bloomberg
• Third Quarter Sees Homes Grow Less Affordable in Much of Country – ATTOM