The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Monsoï Kenneth Colombiano Kponou:

“This article examines the effect of gender role perceptions on the quality of women’s participation in the labor market across six Sahelian countries: Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal. Using data from the demographic and health survey (DHS) to ensure comparability, the perception of gender roles was measured through a composite index. The study analyzed its effect on two employment outcomes: (i) employment sector, and (iii) remuneration mode. The findings indicate that gender roles significantly influence women’s labor market participation, specifically increasing the likelihood of women doing vulnerable jobs. Our results highlight the importance of strengthening policies that support girls’ education. Additionally, there is a need to restructure jobs to address the unique constraints faced by different groups of economic agents, including tailored incentives to promote work-life balance, especially for women.”

From a paper by Zixiang Qi, Bicong Wang, and Yaxin Wang:

“According to the increasing marginal tendency towards tax avoidance, we develop a macro theoretical model and derive an optimal path of economic growth using only dimensionless parameters, which illustrates an inverted U-shaped effect of income inequality on economic growth in the long run. Specifically, economic growth initially moves upwards and subsequently downwards as the Gini coefficient increases. Moreover, this study presents empirical evidence via dynamic GMM estimates based on instrumental variables and PMG estimates relying on cointegration analyses, consistent with the implications of our theoretical model.”

From The Astana Times:

“Making fiscal policy more pro-poor, improving the quality of education, and strengthening climate resilience are critical priorities for policymakers to reduce poverty and inequality in Kazakhstan, according to the Kazakhstan Poverty and Equity Assessment 2024 report, published by the World Bank on Dec. 12.

Kazakhstan’s economy has shown robust growth since 2006, with an average annual rate of 4.7%. This has improved living standards and elevated the country to upper-middle-income status, lifting 5.9 million people out of poverty and reducing the poverty rate from 49.5% to 8.5% over the same period.

Consumption growth, fueled by higher labor incomes, has been the main driver of poverty reduction. However, the report identifies three distinct phases in Kazakhstan’s poverty reduction journey. Between 2006 and 2013, poverty declined rapidly but saw a partial reversal during the 2014-2016 economic downturn, which increased poverty rates. From 2016 to 2021, poverty reduction resumed but at a slower pace.

The middle class has expanded significantly since 2006, increasing 2.5-fold to reach 67% of the population in 2021, compared to 26% in 2006. However, growth stagnated after 2013 as structural transformation and productivity gains slowed. The report underscores the importance of diversifying Kazakhstan’s economy, which remains heavily dependent on commodity exports.”

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From a paper by Robert Holzmann:

“After the global financial crisis and until 2021, the primary objective of central banks in advanced economies was to implement policies aimed at increasing inflation, given that inflation had been too low for too long. Having reached the effective lower bound (ELB) of nominal interest rates, monetary policy had to resort to unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures, which were not without negative side effects. In response to the rise in inflation in 2021, central banks returned to policy interest rates as their primary monetary policy tool and began to unwind their set of UMP measures. Assuming that inflation has been tamed, will we be able to maintain sufficient distance from the ELB to rely broadly on policy rates? Or will we again be forced to implement UMP with all its side effects and proportionality issues? Part I of the paper outlines the rationale and instruments of UMP: how it was supposed to work and how it actually worked, including its negative side effects. Part II considers alternative monetary policy options in a low inflation environment that prove limited and little convincing. The paper ends by discussing how prolonged use of UMP impacts on central bank profitability and central bank independence, also offering possible remedies.”

From a paper by Ruiqi Tan and Wei Dai:

“In this paper, we use monthly data from 1992 to 2022 and a structural VAR model to investigate the effects of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks in the global crude oil market on the Canadian stock market. Our analysis reveals that these shocks affect the S&P/TSX Composite Index and various sector-specific indices in different ways. Specifically, the response of the Canadian market to oil-specific demand shocks diverges notably from the U.S. market, highlighting Canada’s unique position as an oil-exporting country. In the long run, oil price shocks account for over 10% of the variation in the composite index and as much as 35% in the Energy sector index.”