The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Aina B. Aidarova, Aissulu Nurmambekovna Ramashova, Karlygash Baisholanova, Galiya Jaxybekova, Aliy Imanbayev, Indira Kenzhebekova, and Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev:

“In 2001, Jim O’Neil coined the term “BRIC” to refer to the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. In 2011, South Africa joined the group, and it was updated to “BRICS.” These countries have a significant impact on the world economy, and there are numerous studies examining their macroeconomic structures. This study focuses on the relationship between economic growth, oil revenues, and inflation levels in BRICS countries from 2000 to 2021 and uses panel cointegration analysis. Many studies showed a relationship between these variables in different countries and unions. This study aims to determine if these relationships hold for BRICS countries. The results suggest a cointegration relation and a causality relation between economic growth, inflation, and oil revenues in BRICS countries. This finding demonstrates the impact of energy, specifically oil revenues, on economic growth. However, other macro indicators also affect economic growth, as suggested by existing literature. Therefore, future studies could improve on this research by including additional social and economic variables to evaluate the impact of oil revenues on economic growth from multiple perspectives.”

From a paper by Jerome Creel, and Jonas Kaiser:

“This paper investigates the stabilization property of fiscal policy by revisiting the notion of
potential output via the use of Okun’s Law including the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio (V/U)
to proxy economic slack. We propose new measures of the US fiscal stance based on observable
data and transparent targets. Our results suggest that the US actually had a more conservative
fiscal stance than official data indicate. This paper also examines fiscal multipliers, which are
larger when V/U, rather than the unemployment rate, is used as measure of economic slack. We
find that state-dependence of fiscal multipliers is as sensitive to thresholds for bad years than
to the slack measure employed in Okun’s Law.”