The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• How Property Taxes Can Help Low-Income Countries to Develop. Satellites, drones, and the right policies can help countries increase revenue by up to 10 times at the local level – IMF

Working papers and conferences:

• Home Purchase Appraisals in Minority Neighborhoods – FHFA
• Expecting Climate Change: A Nationwide Field Experiment in the Housing Market – NBER
• Quantitative Urban Economics – NBER
• Spatial Economics – NBER
• The Rise in Mortgage Fees: Evidence from HMDA Data – Philadelphia Fed
• Disentangling the Drivers of Exuberant House Prices – SSRN
• Institutional Investors In The Market For Single-Family Housing: Where Did They Come From, Where Did They Go? – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• New England has a housing shortage. Could ‘ADUs’ help? Boston Fed event explores ‘accessory dwelling units’ as part of housing solution – Boston Fed
• If the Fed Is Cutting Rates, Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising? The latest rise, to 6.79% for a 30-year mortgage, reflects bond market concern about President-elect Trump’s agenda. It extends an uptick in mortgage rates despite expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. – New York Times
• If the Fed Is Cutting Rates, Why Aren’t Mortgage Rates Falling? Consumer borrowing costs haven’t tracked the Fed since it cut rates by half a percentage point in September – Wall Street Journal
• Consumers Feeling Better About Housing Market Despite High Home Prices. HPSI Up Significantly from All-Time Low Recorded Two Years Ago – Fannie Mae
• Here’s Where Minimum-Wage Workers Can Actually Afford Rent. A study found that people who earn low wages were rent-burdened in all of the country’s 50 largest real estate markets. – New York Times
• Trump’s a Developer, But Don’t Expect Him to Solve the Housing Crisis. The incoming president’s messaging on housing has been muddled by his support for tariffs and deportations, which would make it costlier to build. – Bloomberg
• U.S. Residential Building Permits by Market Size: 2023 – New Geography
• Mortgage Rates Fell, Then Rose. What Comes Next? Many would-be home buyers are still hoping for mortgage rates to come down as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. How much they will fall is unclear. – New York Times
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October. First Year-over-year Sales Gain Since August 2021 – Calculated Risk
• Housing Costs Continue to Drive Inflation – NAHB
• NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low – Calculated Risk 
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024 – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• Moving to the Country: Unpacking the Persistent Increase in Rural Housing Demand Since the Pandemic – Fannie Mae
• Weekly Housing Market Update: Election Puts Housing Supply and Affordability on the Radar – Realtor.com
• Americans Staged a Property Tax Revolt on Election Day. Florida, Georgia among the states that voted for certain limits on property taxes, while North Dakota rejected complete ban – Wall Street Journal
• What Makes Omaha Different From Other Million-Dollar Housing Markets. Home to billionaire investor Warren Buffett, the Nebraska city remains relatively affordable compared with other luxury real-estate markets – Wall Street Journal
• How Zoning Regulations Affect Affordable Housing – NAHB
• Housing has become less affordable across all US metros. – Oxford Economics
• Washington has a housing crisis. The Feds need a creative solution. The key is underused pre-World War II office space, which is well suited for conversion to apartments. – Washington Post
• Why ‘Affordable Housing’ in New York City Can Still Cost $3,500 a Month. Soaring rents and few options have made it hard for average people to live in the city. Even “affordable” units often cost too much. – New York Times  
• In Greater Minnesota, apartment owners’ operating costs rise as small cities “scream for more housing”. Rental housing owners, managers, and developers describe both new and long-standing challenges in Minnesota’s smaller markets – Minneapolis Fed
• Consumers’ Perspectives on Housing Density and Zoning – Fannie Mae  
• The Election’s Sleeper Issue. The impact of costly—and scarce—housing on election results may be underappreciated. – Barron’s
• How higher property taxes increase home affordability. Economists find raising property taxes can boost homeownership for young families – Minneapolis Fed
• Most Consumers Support Building New Housing but Disagree on the Details in Their Own Neighborhoods – Fannie Mae
• Building Material Prices Increase While Other Input Prices Fall – NAHB
• New York Doesn’t Have Enough Housing. Why Is It So Expensive to Build? The scarcity of apartments makes it easy for landlords to raise rents, but building new developments comes with high costs and regulatory hurdles. – New York Times      

On China:

• Is Trump election good or bad for Chinese property investors in the US? It’s a mixed bag. Trump tax cuts, tariffs will keep interest rates high, but current owners will benefit from his presidency – South China Morning Post
• Has China’s property market reached the bottom? – Goldman Sachs
• China Cuts Taxes for Home Purchases in Fiscal Policy Support. Home purchase deed tax is reduced to as low as 1% for buyers. Move signals more fiscal support for the sluggish economy – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] The type of property where prices are falling most right now – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [Australia] ‘It’s never going to happen’: three in five Australian renters expect to never own a home as steep rents hit. Nation of homeowners is about ‘to flip’ to having more people renting, which presents policy challenges, researchers say – The Guardian
• [Australia] Voters furious at housing impasse, O’Neil warns Greens – Financial Review
• [Australia] Want to slash social housing waitlists? We should allow tenants to swap homes – The Conversation
• [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices rise in October as rate cuts boost confidence – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices to bottom out in short term after rate cut, analysts say. Unexpected prime-rate cut by local lenders seen bringing more buyers into market, shoring up prices – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Why didn’t Hong Kong set stricter rules to wipe out its notorious shoebox flats? Setting a larger minimum size for subdivided flats would have meant delays in supplying homes to those affected, minister says – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Residential Property In 2025: Volume Will Rise, Not Price – S&P Global
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong residential property prices to rebound next year, though unsold inventory looms. ‘We expect Hong Kong home prices to be up 5 per cent in 2025,’ says Praveen Choudhary of Morgan Stanley – South China Morning Post 
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Tycoons Are Selling Trophy Homes at Fire Sale Prices. China’s economic downturn has not been kind to the ultrarich who made their wealth on its rise. In their haste to cough up cash, Hong Kong’s luxury property market has had some fire sales. – New York Times
• [Ireland] Building small terraced homes could reduce construction costs, boost supply and lower prices for first-time buyers. Small terraced houses would be more affordable for one- and two-person households, but builders prefer to construct apartments or semi-detached homes because of higher profit margins – The Irish Times
• [Israel] Jerusalem planners laud anticipated skyscrapers, but wary locals cite towering concerns. While the municipality claims that constructing 500 tall buildings will give the Holy City a vertical facelift, residents say it will mar the landscape and only benefit developers – The Times of Israel
• [Saudi Arabia] Saudi Residential Real Estate: The Market Is Booming – S&P Global
• [United Kingdom] Does the Bank of England’s interest rate cut mean lower mortgages? What the decision means for homeowners – and the implications for savings, loans and credit cards – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices hit record high in October, says Halifax. Typical property now costs £293,999, surpassing previous peak set in June 2022 – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK home sales still below pre-pandemic levels. Pricier mortgages in recent years have a knock-on effect on property transactions – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK renters hit by housing supply squeeze. Number of new properties coming to market is weakest since 2021, driving rent rises, Rics survey finds – FT

From UNDP:

“From September 9th to 13th, 2024, Namibia proudly hosted the 3rd Annual African Union Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (AU MSME) Forum in Windhoek, under the theme, “Fostering Financial Empowerment and Educational Innovation for African Startups and MSMEs.” This landmark event brought together over 300 entrepreneurs, policymakers, investors, and thought leaders from 54 African countries and marked a significant step forward in advancing Africa’s MSME sector.

The forum served as a vital platform for addressing key challenges facing MSMEs, including access to finance, market opportunities, and capacity-building. With a focus on fostering sustainable inclusive growth and development, participants explored solutions to the pressing financial and structural barriers that limit the growth of MSMEs.

The 20th Ordinary Session of the African Union Conference of Ministers of Industry (CAMI 20) urged member states to create a supportive environment for MSMEs. In response, the AU MSME Development Strategy & Action Plan was launched, aiming to foster sustainable economies, encourage entrepreneurship, industrial development, and enhance regional trade. The AU MSME Forum, which began in Cairo in 2022 and followed in Addis Ababa in 2023, serves as a key platform for knowledge-sharing and collaboration across Africa.”

Continue reading here.

From Mirage:

“Consensus, as we all recognize, is APEC’s most vital tool and a testimony to our shared responsibility,” said the 2024 Chair of APEC Senior Officials Ambassador Carlos Vasquez as he welcomed senior officials from the 21 APEC economies to Lima on Monday.

“It is what enables this forum to serve our economies effectively, addressing both today’s priorities and those goals envisioned at APEC’s founding 35 years ago,” he continued. “Today, we find the APEC Putrajaya Vision 2040 and the Aotearoa Plan of Action guiding us towards a dynamic and inclusive Asia-Pacific community.”

The Concluding Senior Officials’ Meeting serves as the precursor to the APEC Economic Leaders’ Week, uniting representatives from the Asia-Pacific to advance APEC’s 2024 priorities, namely trade and investment for inclusive growth, digital innovation, and sustainable and resilient development.

As economies face intersecting global challenges – from climate change and economic inequality to digital transformation – APEC Peru 2024 underscores the importance of collaborative solutions to create a future that is both prosperous and resilient.

“From our meeting last December in Lima to the first ministerial meeting in Arequipa, where we achieved early consensus on key deliverables, we have moved together with purpose, bound by our commitment to APEC’s core values,” said Ambassador Vasquez, noting the high number of results achieved so far this year.

This week’s meetings aim to provide greater policy direction for APEC members to deliver an environment that facilitates trade and harnesses regional economic integration and technologically driven growth, sparks business innovation and employment, and brings a better quality of life to people across the Asia-Pacific.

Continue reading here.

From The Statesman:

“India’s economic growth, celebrated in aggregate terms, hides an uncomfortable truth: much of this progress has bypassed the majority of the population, particularly in rural areas. Despite being one of the world’s largest economies, India ranks poorly in per capita income, a stark reminder that GDP growth alone does not equate to widespread prosperity. This widening economic gap has real implications, most notably in terms of demand ~ the very engine of sustainable growth. Recent analyses point to stagnant rural wages, a persisting issue that has kept the purchasing power of millions at a minimum.

Surveys show that the average income for a rural earning person is less than Rs 35,000 a year, or about Rs 2,886 per month. This is barely enough to cover basic needs for an earning person’s family, leaving little room for discretionary spending that could stimulate demand in other sectors of the economy. In fact, a large part of household expenditure in rural India goes towards food ~ nearly 40 per cent ~ reflecting the immense burden of basic costs. Even as the urban middle class begins to feel the strain of stagnant wages, the situation in rural areas is far more concerning. This demand deficit is now reverberating across the broader economy.

Consumption data reveals that rural and low-income urban households spend less than Rs 3,000 and Rs 5,000 per capita monthly, respectively, underscoring a sharp divide in consumer power. Even among salaried urban workers, incomes are modest, with casual labourers faring far worse. Without income growth to support rising aspirations, spending power remains subdued, creating a cycle of low demand that impacts businesses and, ultimately, economic growth. India’s challenge, therefore, is not just about growth, but about inclusive growth. Job creation, particularly in rural areas, is essential. The current trend toward increased informalisation ~ with more people in unstable jobs or self-employment ~ further erodes income stability and social mobility.”

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From a paper by Luciano Vereda, Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, and George Morcerf:

“Our study advances the modelling of forecast revisions by accounting for the nuanced impact of informational shocks across different time horizons. Specifically, we introduce modifications to the error structure of regression models used to detect biases in macroeconomic forecasts. Drawing on consensus forecasts of inflation and output growth from the central banks of Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, our approach offers a nuanced understanding of bias estimation uncertainty, leading to a more robust rejection of the null hypothesis of no biases. By elucidating the differential effects of informational shocks on forecast accuracy across time periods, our findings not only contribute to the refinement of forecasting methodologies but also have implications for policymakers and economic analysts striving for more accurate and reliable predictions in dynamic economic environments.”