The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Óscar Cabrera García and Carla Marrero Yanes:

“Arthur Okun, in 1962, established a relationship between unemployment and GDP after having
studied the behaviour of these variables in the US economy. To analyze the fulfillment of this
relationship in Spain, we used the specification of the model in differences, estimating it not only in
a static but also dynamic way for the national whole, as well as by sex and age groups. Our study
period is between 2003-2023. The results obtained suggest that the “Okun’s Law” is indeed fulfilled,
not only for the national whole but also for age groups and sex, although there are certain
differences in some groups, as well as depending on the type of analysis carried out.”

From a paper by Yadavindu Ajit and Taniya Ghosh:

“This study examines the effects of inflation targeting on inflation levels, its volatility, and its persistence
in emerging market economies. To better estimate the dynamic treatment effects of inflation targeting,
the study uses a larger set of data, including 59 emerging market economies, an extended sample
spanning 1985-2019, and a methodology that takes into account the staggered adoption of inflation
targeting by these economies. Traditional models used in the literature failed to account for staggered
adoption, resulting in biased estimates. Inflation targeting has been shown to significantly reduce
inflation levels in emerging markets, especially when hyperinflationary economies are excluded. Results
indicate significant reductions in inflation three to four years after adoption. In comparison, the findings
for inflation volatility and persistence are more nuanced. Standard models indicate initial volatility
reductions, but models that account for staggered adoption show no significant long-term impact.
Moreover, inflation targeting has no significant impact on inflation persistence, even in more stable
environments. These findings highlight the effectiveness of using models that account for staggered policy adoption when evaluating long-term policy impacts, and they suggest that, while inflation targeting is a viable tool for reducing inflation in emerging markets, its broader effects on inflation volatility and persistence have been limited.”

From a paper by James Mitchell, Taylor Shiroff, and Hana Braitsch:

“This paper shows how both the characteristics and the accuracy of the point and density forecasts from a well-known panel data survey of households’ inflationary expectations – the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations – depend on the tenure of survey respondents. Households’ point and density forecasts of inflation become significantly more accurate with repeated practice of completing the survey. These learning gains are best identified when tenure-based combination forecasts are constructed. Tenured households on average produce lower point forecasts of inflation, perceive less forecast uncertainty, round their uncertainty but not their point forecasts, report unimodal densities, and provide internally consistent point and density forecasts.”

See the link here.

From The Scotsman:

“Watching Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ maiden Budget and Mansion House speech, one thing was clear – this is a UK government focused on long-term economic growth.

Reeves’ plan to “invest, invest, invest”, and the provision of Scotland’s largest financial settlement since devolution demonstrates a clear government mandate to drive growth and boost investment both into and from Scotland.

This is a vision shared by the investment management industry, which channels some £1.4 trillion into the UK economy on behalf of households across the country. Our industry has a long heritage in Scotland. Edinburgh remains the second largest centre of investment management in the UK, managing £490 billion in assets, and the Scottish investment management industry employs about 13,000 people. Much to be proud of.”

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