The Unassuming Economist

From a new paper by John Asker, Allan Collard-Wexler, Charlotte De Canniere, Jan De Loecker and Christopher R. Knittel:

“Market power reduces equilibrium quantities and distorts production, typically causing welfare losses. However, as Buchanan (1969) noted, market power may mitigate overproduction from negative externalities. This paper examines this in the global oil market, where OPEC’s market power affects oil production and carbon intensity. We estimate that from 1970 to 2021, OPEC’s market power reduced emissions by over 67 GtCO2, equating to $4,073 billion in climate damages and 17.8% of the carbon budget needed for the 1.5◦ C Paris Agreement target. This environmental benefit outweighs the welfare loss from distorted production allocation.”

From a paper by Sara El Aboudi, Youssef Jouali, Mounir El Bakkouchi and Abdellah Echaoui:

“In this study, we analyze the cross-impact of inflation, exchange rates and economic growth on income inequality in Morocco between 2000 and 2022, based on the GINI index as a measure of inequality. Its main objective is to understand how these macroeconomic variables influence income disparities. Our methodology is based on a VAR model to capture dynamic interactions between variables. To validate the robustness of the model, Granger causality tests and specification tests, including tests of homoscedasticity and autocorrelation of residuals, were used. The result is that inflation has a significant positive impact on income inequality, and exchange rate fluctuations directly influence inequality. Furthermore, economic growth helps to reduce inequality, although this effect depends on the distribution of the benefits of this growth. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence of the importance of macroeconomic stability and educational and fiscal policies in reducing income inequality.”

From a paper by Cheol-Keun Cho and Myunghyun Kim:

“We consider a proxy FAVAR (Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression) model to analyze the impact of an oil supply news shock on the Korean economy. To identify an oil supply news shock, we use the variation in oil futures prices around OPEC production announcements as a proxy. Moreover, we include a factor that captures the common movement of many Korean macro variables such as various price indices and investment. The estimation results of the proxy FAVAR model show that an oil supply news shock increases the real oil price and the US CPI, and decreases world oil production and US GDP. As for Korean macro variables, GDP and net exports fall and CPI increases in response to the shock.”

Working papers and conferences:

• The Distaste for Housing Density – NBER
• The Determinants of Local Housing Supply in England – CEPR

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• What can the next administration do about the US housing shortage? – Brookings
• Scariest Charts of the Week – Real Estate Decoded
• All-Cash Sales and Prices Decline in the Third Quarter – NAHB
• This Year’s Housing Turnaround Ended Before It Started. Sales of existing homes are on track for the worst two-year period since the mid-1990s – Wall Street Journal
• Owner-Occupied Single-Family Housing Units Across Congressional Districts – NAHB
• Pending Home Sales in US See Biggest Gain Since Summer 2020. Index of sales remains low despite outsize September rise. All US regions report increases, led by jump in western states – Bloomberg
• Housing market faces 7% mortgage rates again—here’s what is really going on. The Fed lowered interest rates, so why are the mortgage rates for the housing market climbing back up again? – Fast Company 
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year. 17 of the 30 worst performing cities are now in Florida! – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• Why a Key Biden Effort to Boost Affordable Housing Has Faced Hurdles. The Biden administration rolled out a plan last year to create more housing by unlocking more than $35 billion in lending capacity. It has yet to close on any loans that would support housing-related projects. – New York Times
• What Harris and Trump plan to do about housing costs. Housing affordability has become a key issue for both the Trump and Harris campaigns. Today on “Post Reports,” what each candidate is proposing to do about the housing crisis, and whether their solutions could actually work. – Washington Post
• Can Public Housing Play a Role in a New American Social Housing System? – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Boosting Housing Affordability: Practical Suggestions for Congress and the White House. How executive actions and new laws in Washington can help reform efforts in the states. – Mercatus Center
• To Fix the Affordable Housing Shortage, Policymakers Should Support Smarter Housing Policies Instead of Using Immigration to Evade Responsibility. Avoiding the real issues causing higher housing costs distracts from constructive solutions to solve America’s housing shortage. – Center for American Progress
• Where do Trump and Harris stand on housing, taxes and other policies? Polls show US voters unhappy about the economy, their top election concern. How would the presidential candidates address economic issues such as cost of living and labor? – The Guardian
• A Proposal to Address the Housing Crisis – Calculated Risk
• Fewer US Homes Are Insured Against Floods, Even as Risks Are Rising – Econofact
• U.S. housing market is on the ‘verge of a vicious cycle,’ which is ‘not good for America,’ Lennar Mortgage head warns. Politicians should ‘stop talking about affordability — and start delivering on affordability,’ Laura Escobar says – Market Watch
• The Role of the Recent Immigrant Surge in Housing Costs – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Hedge funds and housing – Politico
• Climate Change Should Make You Rethink Homeownership – New York Times
• Construction Job Openings Fall in September – NAHB
• Weaker Homeownership Data for Younger Households – NAHB
• A Wall Street Landlord Bought Your Neighbor’s House. It’s a Mixed Blessing. The zip codes where investors own a bigger share of homes have seen higher-than-average increases in both prices and rents – Wall Street Journal
• The Year’s Most Important Housing Vote. Proposition 33 would repeal all of California’s state-level limits on rent control. It’s passage could prove to be a disaster for housing supply in the Golden State. – Reason
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September. Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Ties Highest Since 2011 – Calculated Risk
• Radical Plans for Public Housing Stir Up Hope, and Doubt. A plan would demolish aged housing projects in Chelsea and build new homes and thousands of additional apartments. It could be a game changer. – New York Times
• N.Y.C. Housing Voucher Program Is ‘Plagued With Problems,’ Audit Says. Thomas DiNapoli, the New York State comptroller, found that management lapses had caused delays for people who needed permanent housing. – New York Times
• Nightmare on Main Street: Unpacking 10 Scary Housing Trends – CoreLogic
• Zombie Foreclosures Remain Sparce Around U.S. in Fourth Quarter Amid Ongoing Strong Housing Market – ATTOM 

On Australia and New Zealand

• [Australia] Housing market on the cusp of another boom – Financial Review
• [Australia] Housing policy heats up – Grattan Institute
• [Australia] Sydney House Prices Drop for the First Time in Almost Two Years – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand Housing Market Bogged Down by Flood of Listings. Prices seen recovering in 2025 if summer sales clear backlog. ‘Prices may bounce along the bottom for a few months yet’: ANZ – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Canada faces worsening home ownership crisis with stalled condo sales – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Rising Home Sales Still Face Economic Headwinds – Bloomberg
• [Ireland] Economic policy issues in the Irish housing market – IDEAS
• [Singapore] Singapore Home Prices Fall Less Than Expected; Rents Rebound – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Chancellor pledges extra £500m for social homes in budget. Treasury plans £5bn total investment in housing supply and reduction in discounts under right-to-buy scheme – The Guardian