The Unassuming Economist

From a new World Bank report:

“We are facing a series of overlapping and interconnected crises that are impacting lives and livelihoods almost everywhere. The combined effects of slow economic growth, rising conflict and fragility, persistent inequality, and extreme weather-related events have sent shockwaves across the globe.

High-income economies are showing signs of resilience, but the outlook for low-income economies and fragile countries remains deeply troubling.

Just a decade ago, we had cause for more optimism. There was significant progress in sustainable development between 1990 and 2015, with more than a billion people lifted out of extreme poverty. This was a monumental achievement, driven primarily by strong economic growth in China and India, and it brought the wealthiest and least-well off economies closer in income levels.

Yet, what seemed like a clear path to complete poverty eradication has since faded. Our new report shows that global poverty rates have only now gone back down to pre-pandemic levels, with forecasts indicating a trajectory for the coming years that is dismal at best.

Almost half the world’s population—around 3.5 billion people—is living on less than $6.85 a day, the poverty line for upper-middle-income countries. At a more extreme level, almost 700 million people are living on less than $2.15 a day, the poverty line for low-income countries. Extreme poverty has become increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa or places affected by conflict and fragility.”

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From Nishtha Anushree at Swarajya:

“The Nobel Prize 2024 in Economic Sciences has been awarded to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A Robinson “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity.”

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has chosen the awardees of the 2024 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for demonstrating the importance of societal institutions for a country’s prosperity.

The laureates’ model for explaining the circumstances under which political institutions are formed and changed has three components. The first is a conflict over how resources are allocated and who holds decision-making power in a society (the elite or the masses).

The second is that the masses sometimes have the opportunity to exercise power by mobilising and threatening the ruling elite; power in a society is thus more than the power to make decisions.

The third is the commitment problem, which means that the only alternative is for the elite to hand over decision-making power to the populace.

“The introduction of inclusive institutions would create long-term benefits for everyone, but extractive institutions provide short-term gains for the people in power,” the laureates say.

The laureates have also developed an innovative theoretical framework that explains why some societies become stuck in a trap with what the laureates call extractive institutions, and why escaping from this trap is so difficult.

They have added a new dimension to previous explanations for the current differences in the wealth of countries around the globe. One of these relates to geography and climate.

Their insights regarding how institutions influence prosperity show that work to support democracy and inclusive institutions is an important way forward in the promotion of economic development.”

From McKinsey & Company:

“Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson of MIT, and James Robinson of the University of Chicago were awarded the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for their research on how societal institutions shape a country’s prosperity. “I believe that the political economy of growth, how we make it happen, what sort of institutions we have to have in order to undergird growth, who benefits from growth, how you regulate growth, and technology, automation, AI, the direction of technological change—those are intimately connected,” said Acemoglu in a 2021 episode of the McKinsey Global Institute’s Forward Thinking podcast with Michael Chui.

For more on the role of inequality in economics, check out McKinsey Publishing interviews with Nobel Prize winners Angus Deaton, Robert Solow, and Richard Thaler, and insights from McKinsey’s Anu Madgavkar, Sven Smit, Kweilin Ellingrud, Tracy Francis, and Asutosh Padhi.”

On cross-country:

• Taming the World’s Affordable Housing Crisis – Insead
• The EU’s plan to make housing more affordable. The European Commission has a plan to tackle the housing squeeze even as it acknowledges that its powers are limited. – Politico
• Why does the Anglosphere Suck at Housing? Speaking English is part of the problem – Home Economics
• Global house price growth accelerates. House prices across our 56-country basket rose by 3.3% in the 12 months to the end of June, with prices increasing by 1.9% over the past three months alone – Knight Frank

Working papers and conferences:

• Monetary policy transmission: why consumers’ housing situations matter. – European Central Bank
• Long-term fixed-rate mortgages through an international lens: could they lead to higher home ownership? – Bank of England
• House Price Experiences and Consumer Spending – SSRN
• Housing Policy, Homeownership, and Inequality – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Why have mortgage rates fallen, and where are they headed? – Brookings
• US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Climbs by Most in More Than a Year – Bloomberg
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Why Mortgage Rates Haven’t Fallen Since the Fed Cut. Would-be home buyers anticipating more relief from the Fed might be waiting a while – Wall Street Journal
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September. Significant Regional Differences for Active Inventory – Calculated Risk
• NYC Apartment Renters Get a Break But Bargains Remain Elusive. Manhattan median is $200 below record after string of declines. Leases jump, signaling the market’s still fiercely competitive – Bloomberg
• Remodeling Market Sentiment Dips in Third Quarter – NAHB
• Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High – Calculated Risk
• Housing Confidence Inches Higher Amid Record-High Optimism Toward Mortgage Rates. Renter Sentiment Also Up, Including Share Expecting Rates to Fall – Fannie Mae
• Mortgage rates are rising again. An uptick in rates slowed total loan applications after several months of growth – Quartz
• Despite Housing Shortage, America Has 5.6 Million Vacant Homes—What Gives? – Realtor.com  

On the US—other developments:    

• Removing Barriers to Abundant, Affordable Housing. InsideSources published an op-ed from Kevin DeGood about the role that state and local governments play in America’s housing affordability crisis. – Center for American Progress
• Americans Recognize Housing Affordability Crisis, Support New Policies To Fix the Market and Build More Homes. New survey data show housing affordability is a salient national issue. – Center for American Progress
• Contra J.D. Vance and Tim Walz, Housing Should Be a ‘Commodity’. Housing is unaffordable because regulations have prevented its commodification. – Reason
• Why YIMBYs like Kamala Harris – Axios  
• The link between immigration and housing costs isn’t as obvious as it seems – Axios
• Gavin Newsom’s blunt instrument on housing – Politico 
• The Week in Review. Week of Sept 30th — Payrolls pop – Home Economics
• San Francisco’s mayoral election defined by housing crisis and shift to right – Reuters
• Housing costs are rising. How do Trump and Harris plan to tackle them? – NPR
• Manufactured Homes: Shipments, Prices, and Characteristics in 2023 – NAHB
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs “Spike”, Especially in Florida – Calculated Risk
• See Where the Housing Market Could Change the Most as Mortgage Rates Drop – Realtor.com
• Soaring Insurance Costs Are Menacing Owners of Big Buildings, Too. Struggling landlords and developers are seeking leeway on coverage from their lenders — mostly in vain. – New York Times
• State of Local Homeownership Prior to the Election – NAHB 

On Australia and New Zealand

• [Australia] Downsizing How Australia’s housing crisis opens door for eager Asian investors. The factors in Australia’s affordability crisis can be seen elsewhere in Asia, making it important for investors not to overlook their own markets – South China Morning Post
• [New Zealand] Difficult mortgage decisions for borrowers likely to continue – CoreLogic

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Buying a home gets a tad more affordable as rates drop – RBC
• [Canada] Can private real estate help lead Canada out of the housing crisis? – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Korea Touts Progress in Cooling Real Estate Ahead of BOK Meeting. Finance Ministry comments just days before Bank of Korea meets. BOK has delayed cutting interest rates on concerns about debt – Bloomberg
• [Korea] Cooling in Seoul’s Apartment Market Pauses Ahead of BOK Meeting. High-frequency data show top properties demand still strong. Government continues to pledge to rein in household debt – Bloomberg
• [Kuwait] Why Housing Prices in Kuwait Keep Going Up? Unveiling the Drivers Behind the Crisis – LSE
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property prices have ‘bottomed out’ and will ‘rebound slowly’, sector leader says. Recent strength in stock market can help drive economic recovery and boost property sector, head of developers’ association says – South China Morning Post
• [United Kingdom] UK property market strengthens, pressure on renters intensifies, RICS says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rising for first time in two years – Yahoo Finance

On cross-country:

• The house-price supercycle is just getting going. Why property prices could keep rising for years – The Economist
• House prices and rents went up in Q2 2024 – Eurostat
• House prices up by 1.3% in the euro area – Eurostat
• Eurozone house prices rise for first time in more than a year. Annual increase of 1.3% in second quarter points to gradual recovery of region’s housing market – FT
• The housing crisis is global. What are other countries doing about it? Australia is not the only country facing a housing crisis. Alan Kohler takes us on a whistle-stop tour of five governments trying to make homes more affordable – The Guardian

Working papers and conferences:

• Racial Differences in the Total Rate of Return on Owner-Occupied Housing – SSRN
• Disaster Risk and Rising Home Insurance Premiums – NBER
• Psychological Effects of Air Pollution: Evidence from House Viewings – SSRN
•  Did Brexiteers Get What They Voted for? Evidence from the Housing Market – SSRN
• Why higher house prices lead to higher borrowing. The UK housing market has experienced a dramatic rise in house prices and mortgage debt over recent decades, both of which have outpaced average income growth. New research shows that much of the increase in mortgage debt can be attributed to homebuyers being compelled to borrow more in order to afford adequately sized homes. – LSE

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• US Home Price Insights –  October 2024 – CoreLogic
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Ticked Up in August – Calculated Risk
• US housing market: Home prices climb to new record high in July – S&P Global
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Rates Continue Downward Trend in September – NAHB
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in August; Up 3.7% Year-over-year. Over the last 6 months, the seasonal adjusted index has increased at a 1.5% annual rate – Calculated Risk
• Private Residential Construction Spending Falls for Third Straight Month – NAHB
• FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores – Calculated Risk
• Refinancing Activity Continues to Climb in September – NAHB
• Majority of Americans Still Feel Locked in by Mortgage Rates—With More Than Half of Borrowers’ Rates Below 4% – realtor.com
• 84% of Outstanding Mortgage Debt has a Sub-6% Rate – realtor.com
• September 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – realtor.com

On the US—other developments:    

• Edward Glaeser on Zoning, Land Use Regulation, and Urban Economics – Hoover Institution
• How We Unintentionally Created the Affordable Housing Crisis – New York Times
• Making housing more affordable – Brookings
• Miami Housing Is Expensive. Just Don’t Call It a Bubble. The Florida city tops this year’s UBS ranking of global cities with elevated home prices. But the market’s fundamentals may not be as weak as they seem. – Bloomberg
• Housing market shift: Here’s where homebuyers are gaining power fast. Buyers have gained some leverage in most resale markets over the past year, with some markets even becoming buyer’s markets. – Fast Company
• In Las Vegas, housing could make or break the battle for the White House. Nevada, once known for its low living costs, has seen house prices soar and rents climb – can Trump take advantage? – The Guardian
• In a Florida Town Ravaged by Storms, Homeowners All Want to Sell. Ballooning home insurance costs and the perennial threat of violent storms hit Tampa Bay housing market hard – Wall Street Journal
• The San Diego infinite housing glitch. How a bonus ADU program allows ‘granny towers’ in gardens – The Work in Progress Newsletter
• That Luxury Home Comes With an Ocean View—and Surging Insurance Costs. A lot of high-end real estate is in parts of the country that have become hotbeds for climate disasters in recent years – Wall Street Journal
• J.D. Vance Actually Does Understand How Costs Get Passed Along the Supply Chain. Vance says higher energy prices make building houses more costly. What, then, do tariffs on steel and lumber do? – Reason
• Three Principles for a Rental Assistance Guarantee – Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
• Housing is having a moment. It’s not enough to fix wildfire insurance – Politico  

On China:

• China Developers Offer Deals Betting Home Prices Will Hit Bottom. Moves come as policymakers unveil aggressive housing stimulus. Biggest builder to give refunds if prices drop after purchase – Bloomberg
• China announces new measures to arrest housing slump and boost growth. Benefits to rise for poorest and local authorities to be given powers to intervene in real estate markets – The Guardian
• China’s Politburo Supercharges Stimulus With Housing, Rates Vows. Politburo calls for measures to stop property market decline. Pledge to ensure fiscal spending among steps signaling urgency – Bloomberg
• Can China’s stimulus bazooka repair confidence, income deficit in housing market? Fitch analyst sees more support measures next quarter to ensure Beijing’s latest stimulus bazooka achieves its aims – South China Morning Post
• China Moves to Cut Mortgage Rates to Revive Housing Market – Bloomberg
• China Removes Curbs on Home Buyers, Sparking Stock Market Surge. After seeing prices decline for years, Chinese officials have made a burst of policy changes aimed at making it easier to buy homes. – New York Times
• China’s Housing Glut Collides With Its Shrinking Population. Many cities are stuck with empty homes that they will likely never fill, adding to the country’s economic woes – Wall Street Journal

On Australia and New Zealand

• [Australia] Downsizing Baby Boomers Face Apartment Shortages in Sydney – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] House prices will stop falling soon – Corelogic – RNZ
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Continue to Retreat Despite Rate Cuts – Market Watch
• [New Zealand] Rate cuts haven’t pumped up house prices yet – Core Logic

On other countries:  

• [Canada] In Canada’s hot small-city housing markets, rent-to-own is on the rise – Globe and Mail
• [Canada] Toronto Home Prices Fall for Second Month as New Listings Surge. Buyers are gaining more negotiating power, market analyst says. Economists expect central bank to continue to lower its rate – Bloomberg
• [Denmark] Denmark faces EU court questions on housing policy, racism – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong needs to fix its student housing supply. The private student accommodation market shows great potential, but repurposing existing properties will only go so far to satisfy growing demand – South China Morning Post
• [Ireland] House prices in Dublin rise 8.4% over past 12 months. Property advisers DNG expect resale market in the capital to reach 9% in 2024 – The Irish Times
• [Ireland] House prices are now 37% higher than at start of Covid pandemic in 2020. Prices rise 3% in third quarter as shortage of second-hand homes for sale bites, according to Daft report – The Irish Times
• [Korea] Seoul’s Apartment Market Cools More Ahead of BOK Rate Decision – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK Home Price Rise Most Since February, Nationwide Says. Mortage lender’s gauge shows market bounced back in September. Mortgage approvals rise to highest level since September 2022 – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices hit highest annual growth since 2022. Nationwide says yearly rise in house prices increased by 3.2% in September putting the average home at £266,094 – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Yimbys hear this – simply building more homes won’t solve our housing crisis. The ‘yes in my back yard’ voices are getting louder, but housebuilding quality is more important than quantity – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] The Recovering UK Housing Market: Who Benefits? Prices and sales are rising. That’s good news for a wide range of sectors, not just builders. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] U.K. Home Sales Soar as Mortgage Rates Ease. September’s agreed sales were 25% higher on year – Wall Street Journal
• [United Kingdom] UK house sales rise at fastest pace in three years, data shows. Lower interest rates spur rise in buyer demand in September, says Zoopla – FT