The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Ahmet Kara:

“Public debt trajectories are multidimensionally interconnected with the other processes in the
economy, and as such, they had better be analyzed within a system framework that takes into account the
public-debt related interrelations and feedback loops which could involve many macroeconomic as well as microeconomic factors (including the non-economic ones) that could have significant influences on the
trajectories in question. In this paper, we develop a simple system-based framework where we begin to
exemplify the interrelations and causal connections embodied within the system. By explicating such
interrelations, we will account for the underlying interconnectivity that, together with other factors, give rise to the formation of the debt trajectories which could span over a number of years. Once the underlying interconnectivity and the relevant factors are specified, we can construct a system dynamics model so as to simulate the debt trajectories under conditions that are of practical significance to policy makers. Simulating the trajectories, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, opens the doors to the optimal management of debt processes. Correctly predicting the debt figures at different points in time enables the policy makers to design and implement policies so as to influence/control the trajectory to achieve the debt-related objectives. An example of the policy of this kind will be provided in the text.”

From a paper by Ngoc Duc Lang and Duc Hong Vo:

“This paper aims to examine the relationship between geopolitical risk, arms race proxied by military spending, and health expenditure in 43 countries from 1990 to 2021–the period with many significant geopolitical events. This study addresses potential endogeneity issues by using novel causal inference approaches, including the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM), Lewbel-IV estimation, and Half-Panel Jackknife (HPJ) estimation. We find that geopolitical risk significantly reduces public health expenditure. This finding has largely remained across various settings. Our finding also confirms a heterogeneity in the impacts of geopolitical risk on public health expenditure in countries with different living standards. More specifically, countries with lower living standards suffer more adverse effects of geopolitical risk on public health expenditure. Our results also indicate that military spending serves as the mediating channel through which geopolitical risk reduces public health expenditure.”

From a paper by Istvan Abel & Pierre L. Siklos:

“Stabilising properties have always been an important aspect of monetary policy implementation, albeit with due recognition of the economic environment. We develop a simple theoretical model to evaluate the main elements in the choice of policy strategy aimed at inflation control. While the analytical framework is useful to assess different monetary policy frameworks, our focus is the flexible inflation targeting framework that provides a role for exchange rate fluctuations. Empirical evidence, relying on Taylor rules, suggests that monetary policy has been practiced with considerable flexibility in Hungary and has contributed to business cycle stabilisation.”

From a paper by Hlalefang Khobai, Ponalo Xinishe, Mpho Lenoke:

“The surge in oil price levels remains a world-wide concern, more specifically to oil-importing countries such as South Africa. The dependence on crude oil from these net exporters makes the country vulnerable to external shocks, such as geopolitics. These effects have a pass-through effect to domestic headline inflation, induced by imported inflation. The general objective of the study is to investigate the asymmetric effect that the price of oil has on inflation in South Africa. To achieve these objectives, the study applied the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL), Error Correction Model (ECM), Pairwise Granger Causality, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition. The bounds test of cointegration revealed that cointegration exists between the observed variables of the study. After estimating the error correction model, the study found that in the short-run, the relationship between a positive change in oil price and inflation is negative and significant. However, the relationship between a negative change in oil price and inflation in the short-run is now positive and significant. Therefore, the correction of disequilibrium will take place in the long run by means of short-run adjustments, with the speed of 1.71%. Pairwise Granger Causality test revealed that a unidirectional relationship occurs from oil prices to inflation. The Variance Decomposition results show that a shock to oil price accounts for a greater percentage of fluctuation in inflation. The Impulse Response Function reveals that within a 10-year period there is a positive response of inflation to oil prices, specifically from year three to year five. The study recommends the South African oil import diversification policy to source oil from multiple exporting countries to ensure steady supply and reduce dependence on any single source. This strategy improves security and reduces vulnerability to oil price shocks and supply disruptions caused by various factors.”

From Business Standard:

“Flip through any magazine or coverage of Bangladesh’s RMG sector, and you’ll inevitably spot a smiling woman—representing the heart and soul of the industry. Yet, the lived experiences of these women tell a different story—one where their representation on factory floors and in leadership roles is steadily shrinking.

The ready-made garments (RMG) sector has been the driving force behind Bangladesh’s economic rise, propelling the country to become the world’s second-largest garment exporter. Women have been at the heart of this success, making up 80% of the workforce in the 1980s. Fast forward to today, and that figure has dropped to just 53.65% (Jenns, 2023). The situation is even more concerning in leadership, with only 9% of managerial roles held by women between 2010 and 2018 (Uddin, 2021).

This raises a crucial question: Why, after contributing so much to the sector’s growth, are women still not moving up the ladder? Societal norms, family expectations, and organizational barriers have created a glass ceiling, preventing women from reaching their full potential. To truly unlock the sector’s power, we need to break down these barriers and open the door for women to step into leadership roles.”

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