The Unassuming Economist

Policymaking and research on perhaps some of the most pressing social issues in the contemporary world today, like poverty, inequality, access to resources, and related matters, is both blessed and plagued with the idea that additional evidence on people’s identities and information sets can radically transform the rate of success or failure of policies. 

Among other things, one such question has also been the irony of demand for redistributive and poverty alleviation programs not rising commensurately or even remotely as much with the ever-rising level of inequalities in the world. Many studies have attempted to explain this phenomenon by presenting the idea that poor people often have only limited knowledge about their relative deprivation viz other people in the economy. They also believe their income levels to approximately coincide with the average income level of the country, thus convincing themselves of the non-usefulness of any redistribution programs. 

This study, by Hoy and Mager, empirically tests some of these theories using randomized surveys and churns out some insightful observations. It redefines the idea of ‘benchmarking’ incomes for designing redistribution programs and explains the importance of information sets in shaping poor people’s preferences for accepting aid. 

Click here to read more.

From https://voxeu.org/

By Elena Bobeica, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, Gerhard Rünstler, Georg Strasserposted on 31 October 2021 

“The recent decade has shown that forecasters need to continuously adapt their tools to cope with increasing macroeconomic complexity. Just like the global crisis, the current Covid-19 pandemic highlights once again that forecasters cannot be content with just assessing the single most likely future outcome – such as a single number for future GDP growth in a certain year. Instead, a characterisation of all possible outcomes (i.e. the entire distribution) is necessary to understand the likelihood and nature of extreme events.

This is key for central bank forecasters as well, as pointed out by ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane in his opening remarks at the 11th Conference on Forecasting Techniques. Central banks rely heavily on forecasts to design their policy and need robust techniques to navigate through turbulent times. They not only ensure price stability and are thus directly interested in the most likely future inflation path, but in the process also contribute to the understanding, managing, and handling of macro-economic risks and thus need to grasp the likelihood of extreme events (see also the discussion in Greenspan 2004).”

Continue reading here.

From a new CESifo working paper by Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang

“We forecast New York state tax revenues with a mixed-frequency model using a number of machine learning techniques. We found boosting with two dynamic factors extracted from a select list of New York and U.S. leading indicators did best in terms of correctly updating revenues for the fiscal year in direct multi-step out-of-sample forecasts. These forecasts were found to be informationally efficient over 18 monthly horizons. In addition to boosting with factors, we also studied the advisability of restricting boosting to select the most recent macro variables to capture abrupt structural changes. Since the COVID-19 pandemic upended all government budgets, our boosted forecasts were used to monitor revenues in real time for the fiscal year 2021. Our estimates showed a drastic year-over-year decline in real revenues by over 16% in May 2020, followed by several upward nowcast revisions that led to a recovery to -1% in March 2021, which was close to the actual annual value of -1.6%.”

From VoxEU.ORG

Expectations data indicate the US is entering recession about now

By Alex Bryson, David Blanchflower 21 October 2021

“With the mass rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations and the attendant decline in COVID-related deaths in most advanced economies, and with many economic indices turning positive, it looks like most economies are on the road to recovery although the data paint a confusing picture. 

For example, in the spring of 2020, wage growth jumped sharply at the same time unemployment was rising. This was in both the US and the UK. Since then, unemployment has been falling while wage growth remains high. This implies the wage curve slopes up, which seems unlikely. But other metrics are telling a different story, most notably those capturing consumer and business sentiment.

Two series – from The Conference Board on business conditions, employment and income six months hence, and from the University of Michigan on the financial situation in a year and business conditions a year and five years hence – tell the same story: sentiment peaked in spring or early summer. And it has been falling precipitously since (Blanchflower and Bryson 2021a). This is true for the US as a whole and for the eight largest states for which The Conference Board collect data.”

Continue reading here.

On cross-country:

• Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices? – NBER
• Call for Papers: ESCP-TAU-UCLA Conference on Low-Income Housing Supply and Housing Affordability, June 14-16, 2022 – American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association
• Call for Policy Papers on Rethinking Cities for Resilience and Growth in the Post-COVID-19 World – Asian Development Bank Institute

On the US:   

• Should You Buy a Home in the US? – Project Syndicate
• NY Fed’s Williams says rising home prices don’t pose financial stability risks – Reuters
• America’s Housing Boom Will Keep Builders and Agents Busy. There is no more off season any more for housing as builders and buyers make up for lost time – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Market Shows Cracks With Price Cuts in Pandemic Boomtowns. In places like Boise, homebuyers are gaining an edge after a real estate frenzy. – Bloomberg
• The Market for Single-Family Rentals Grows as Homeownership Wanes. House hunters are attracted to the hassle-free living and lack of down payments, but there’s a trade-off: They give up the investment of owning a home. – New York Times
• Pelosi tries to salvage housing aid. The White House as of Friday was refusing to go above $150 billion for housing, according to two people familiar with the talks. – Politico
• How Private Equity Landlords are Changing the Housing Market – Cato Institute
• The Economic Burden of Pension Shortfalls: Evidence from House Prices – NBER
• New York Fed Releases White Paper on Effective Eviction Prevention and New Data Collection Efforts Focused on Renters and Landlords – New York Fed
• Why America’s real estate industry is so racist. MacArthur Fellow Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor writes about how, 53 years after the Fair Housing Act, Black families still face rampant housing discrimination. – Fast Company
• Commercial Real-Estate Sales and Values Surge to Records. Investors hunting for yield gobbled up apartment buildings, life-science labs and industrial properties during the third quarter – Wall Street Journal
• Congress isn’t going to save the housing market. Build Back Better doesn’t build enough. – Vox

On China

• China expands property tax trials in next step of ‘common prosperity’ drive. Xi Jinping backs plan to test levy that could alter country’s economic model – FT
• China’s new property tax may prompt owners of multiple homes to sell down their holdings before prices take a hit, say analysts. – South China Morning Post
• How China Is Rolling Out a Property Tax on Homes, and Why – Bloomberg
• Another Chinese property developer defaults, shares drop – Reuters
• The effect of homeownership on migrant household savings: Evidence from the removal of home purchase restrictions in China – Economic Modelling

On other countries:  

• [Germany] In Berlin 85% of people rent their homes — and prices are spiralling. The end of a rental cap and a shortage of stock are making the German capital unaffordable for many – FT
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong house prices fall by the most in nearly a year as volatile stock market hits buying sentiment – South China Morning Post
• [Italy] Why Americans and Britons Are Rushing to Buy Idyllic Homes in Italy. A range of tax incentives, relatively lower prices and the potential for working remotely is driving up demand from house hunters overseas. – Bloomberg
• [Namibia] How innovative construction could ease Namibia’s housing crisis – World Economic Forum
• [Singapore] The go-go property market doesn’t have legs. Stretched valuations, worsening demographics and policy risks are flashing warning signs – The Straits Times
• [Thailand] Thai central bank eases mortgage rules to support property sector – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Will the UK embrace long fixed-rate home loans? Lenders have been slow to heed Boris Johnson’s call to action on mortgage terms – FT