The Unassuming Economist

From the IMF’s latest report on Belize:

“Belize is exceptionally vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change. It already faces hurricanes, flooding, sea level rise, coastal erosion, coral bleaching, and droughts, with impacts likely to intensify given expected increases in weather volatility and sea temperature. Hence, planning for resilience-building, and engagement with development partners on environmental reforms, have been central to Belizean policy-making for many years, since well before Belize submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Accord in 2015.

This Climate Change Policy Assessment (CCPA) takes stock of Belize’s plans to manage its climate response, from the perspective of their macroeconomic and fiscal implications. The CCPA is a joint initiative by the IMF and World Bank to assist small states to understand and manage the expected economic impact of climate change, while safeguarding long-run fiscal and external sustainability. It explores the possible impact of climate change and natural disasters on the macroeconomy and the cost of Belize’s planned response. It suggests macroeconomically relevant reforms that could strengthen the likelihood of success of the national strategy and identifies policy gaps and resource needs.

• General preparedness for climate change. Belize’s planned climate response is well articulated. Its NDC includes a clear strategy with relatively well-developed costing for its mitigation and adaptation activities. But while climate planning is advanced and consistent with the broader development strategy (GSDS), implementation capacity remains a challenge. Belize has strong physical emergency planning but receives comparatively little disaster aid and falls short on longer-term financial provisioning.

 

• Mitigation. Belize plans to meet its NDC mitigation goals by expanding its already relatively high share of renewable energy further (from 57 percent to 85 percent of electricity supply), reducing energy intensity and fossil fuel use in transport, and protecting forest reserves and improving sustainable forest management. Given its already-reduced dependence on fossil fuels, and its need to preserve competitiveness with Caribbean neighbors, it has limited scope to raise carbon taxes unilaterally; however, feebates could improve the mitigation incentives in the tax system.

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From a speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank:

“2018 has seen one of the hottest summers in Europe since weather records began.^[1]Increasing weather extremes, rising sea levels and Arctic melting are now clearly visible consequences of human-induced warming.^[2] Climate change is not a theory. It is a fact.

While only one dimension of the human cost, the consequences in macroeconomic terms look set to be large. Without further mitigation, cumulative emissions pose significant risks of economic disruption.^[3]

While there is a wide recognition that environmental externalities should be primarily corrected by first-best policies, such as taxes^[4], all authorities, including the ECB, need to reflect on, and consider, the appropriate response to climate change.

In recent years, central bankers, led by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, have started discussing the financial stability implications of climate change.^[5] The first tangible results are trickling in. The Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures published its first status report just a few weeks ago. Only last week, ECB Banking Supervision communicated to banks that climate-related risks have been identified as being among the key risk drivers affecting the euro area banking system.

And, of course, the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System published its first progress report just a few weeks ago, reasserting that climate-related risks fall squarely within the supervisory and financial stability mandates of central banks and supervisors.

An area that has received less attention though, both in policy and in academia, is the impact of climate change on the conduct of monetary policy. Today I would like to contribute to this debate and offer a way of thinking about how climate change fits into our current monetary policy framework – the way we react to shocks and the way we think policy propagates through the economy – and how it may affect our monetary policy implementation.

I will argue that climate change can be expected to affect monetary policy one way or the other. That is, if left unchecked, it may further complicate the correct identification of shocks relevant for the medium-term inflation outlook, it may increase the likelihood of extreme events and hence erode central banks’ conventional policy space more often, and it may raise the number of occasions on which central banks face a trade-off forcing them to prioritise stable prices over output.

In the more desirable scenario in which humankind rises to the climate change challenge, the implications for monetary policy could be equally far-reaching, in particular if the associated shift in the energy mix changes relative prices to an extent that risks destabilising medium-term inflation expectations.

I will also argue that there is scope for central banks themselves to play a supporting role in mitigating the risks associated with climate change while staying within our mandate.”

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From a new CEP Discussion Paper:

“The US suffers from large regional disparities in employment-population ratios (from here on, “employment rates”) which have persisted for many decades (Kline and Moretti, 2013; Amior and Manning, 2018). Concern has grown about these inequities in light of the Great Recession and a secular decline in manufacturing employment (Kroft and Pope, 2014; Acemoglu et al., 2016), whose impact has been heavily concentrated geographically (Moretti, 2012; Autor, Dorn and Hanson, 2013). In principle, these disparities should be eliminated by regional mobility, but this has itself been in secular decline in recent decades (Molloy, Smith and Wozniak, 2011; Dao, Furceri and Loungani, 2017; Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wohl, 2017).

In the face of these challenges, it has famously been argued that foreign migration offers a remedy. Borjas (2001) claims that new immigrants “grease the wheels” of the labor market: given they have already incurred the fixed cost of moving, they are very responsive to regional differences in economic opportunity – and therefore accelerate local population adjustment.1 And in groundbreaking work on the Great Recession period, Cadena and Kovak (2016) argue further that foreign-born workers (or at least low skilled Mexicans) continue to “grease the wheels” even some years after arrival. In terms of policy, if migrants are indeed regionally flexible, forcibly dispersing them within receiving countries may actually hurt natives as well as the migrants themselves. Basso, Peri and Rahman (2017) have extended the hypothesis beyond geography: they find that immigration attenuates the impact of technical change on local skill differentials.

I revisit the original question of geographical adjustment using decadal US data spanning 722 commuting zones (CZs) and 50 years – and using an empirical model which explicitly accounts for dynamic adjustment. Remarkably, I find that foreign migrants (and specifically new arrivals) account for around half of the average population response to local demand shocks. But in areas better supplied by new migrants, population growth is not significantly larger nor more responsive to these shocks. I claim that foreign migration crowds out the contribution from internal mobility that would have materialized in the counterfactual. This is not to say that natives gain little from the contribution of foreign migration. As I argue below, undercoverage of unauthorized migrants in the census may overstate the crowding out effect – and understate the foreign contribution to adjustment. And in any case, conditional on the overall level of immigration, a regionally flexible migrant workforce may save natives from incurring potentially steep moving costs themselves. As Molloy, Smith and Wozniak (2017) suggest, this may in principle shed a more positive light on the decline in regional mobility since the 1980s.”

From a new ECB Research Bulletin:

“How beneficial is labour market flexibility – for instance, the ability to hire and fire workers – for firm growth? And how does such flexibility interact with a firm’s ability to obtain bank credit? This article provides evidence that less rigid employment protection benefits firms during times of scarce credit. We study the performance of credit constrained Spanish firms during the financial crisis of 2008-09, exploiting a firm-size-specific labour regulation that imposes more stringent employment protection on firms with more than 50 employees. We find that Spanish firms with fewer than 50 employees operating in sectors in which labour and capital are close substitutes grew faster during the financial crisis when exposed to a negative credit shock than similarly credit constrained but larger firms. This effect is more pronounced for firms that were more productive before the crisis, suggesting that flexible employment protection laws benefit otherwise healthy firms that are credit constrained, by enabling them to substitute labour for capital and continue growing.”

A new working paper introduces “an original panel dataset based on the text of country reports by the International Monetary Fund. It consists of a total of 2594 Article IV consultation and program review documents. The reports were published between 2004 and 2017 and cover 189 countries. The text of these reports provides a unique in-depth window into the IMF ‘s assessment of the most important macroeconomic issues. They provide indications of the perceived policy weaknesses, economic risks, ongoing reforms and implemented or neglected policy advice. Thus the content of IMF reports are widely used for qualitative and quantitative analysis in the economics, political science and IR literature.”

The paper also presents “three examples in applying text analytic techniques on the dataset to demonstrate and validate its application for research. First, [it] compares conventional measures of resource dependence with a metric based on term frequency in reports. ”

“Second, [it] analyzes mentions preceding reform events as a way to study reform intent.”

“Finally, [it] shows how mentions of keywords describing opposite fiscal policy stances mimic changes in IMF policy advice during the global financial crisis.”