The Unassuming Economist

In a new OCP Policy Center paper, Uri Dadush of Carnegie and OCP writes: “The paper has shown that, over the last thirty years, many economies have been able to double their per capita income and achieve large improvement in other development indicators without relying principally on manufacturing. The main policy implication is not that the manufacturing sector should be shunned or ignored, but that the view that a large manufacturing sector oriented towards world markets is essential to a rapid advance in living standards is mistaken. Read the full article…

The U.S jobs report to be released today is expected to show strong job creation. How do things look outside the U.S.? The new International Jobs Report shows that the global unemployment rate has returned to its pre-crisis level. But emerging economies are doing better than advanced economies; and within advanced economies, the U.S is doing better than the rest.

Read the full article…

According to Krugman, the secret of the universe is:

It’s like the sign you see outside some restaurants: “Come in and eat or we’ll both starve”

Read the full article…

“Labour mobility between countries within the European Union, and within the euro area, is relatively low, especially compared to mobility between States in the United States. Nevertheless, the enlargement of the EU over the previous decade led to substantial migration from new Member States of Eastern Europe to Member States in the west. Furthermore, since the crisis, there have been significant migration flows, as unemployment rose in the hardest hit countries and unemployment rates diverged widely within the euro area.” Read the full article…

Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. economic growth. Real GDP growth forecasts have typically started high, but then are revised down over time as the incoming data continue to disappoint. Continue reading the FRBSF Economic Letter here. Read the full article…