Wednesday, February 4, 2015
The Secret of the (Economic) Universe
It’s like the sign you see outside some restaurants: “Come in and eat or we’ll both starve”
According to Krugman, the secret of the universe is:
It’s like the sign you see outside some restaurants: “Come in and eat or we’ll both starve”
Posted by at 4:45 PM
Labels: Inclusive Growth
Labour mobility in the EU: dynamics and policies
See my presentation here that gives some background on this discussion.
“Labour mobility between countries within the European Union, and within the euro area, is relatively low, especially compared to mobility between States in the United States. Nevertheless, the enlargement of the EU over the previous decade led to substantial migration from new Member States of Eastern Europe to Member States in the west. Furthermore, since the crisis, there have been significant migration flows, as unemployment rose in the hardest hit countries and unemployment rates diverged widely within the euro area.” Read the full article…
Posted by at 2:45 AM
Labels: Inclusive Growth
Tuesday, February 3, 2015
Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth
Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. economic growth. Real GDP growth forecasts have typically started high, but then are revised down over time as the incoming data continue to disappoint. Continue reading the FRBSF Economic Letter here. Read the full article…
Posted by at 1:12 PM
Labels: Forecasting Forum
Monday, February 2, 2015
On Groundhog Day, Honoring A Forecasting Giant
Herman believes that forecasters should predict recessions early and often: “… the cost of a recession is so great that a forecaster should never miss one … Some people argue that turning points are unpredictable. I disagree. I have never had trouble predicting recessions. In fact, I have predicted n+x of the last n recessions.”
Herman’s colleagues and friends organized a conference on his 80th birthday and the proceedings have just been published in a special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting. The conference versions of the papers are available here.
The issue has an article by Fred Joutz, Tara Sinclair and me, which summarizes Herman’s extraordinary career—the early work on forecasting turning points and why forecasters seem to miss nearly every one of them; the first forecasting assessments of the Fed’s Greenbook forecasts; and much more.
Forecasting is difficult and I honor the people who have to do it. My own interest in the topic was triggered by my awful forecasts for growth in the Asian crisis economies in 1997-98. I have continued my own “astonishing record of complete failure” by completely failing to forecast the recent sharp decline in oil prices. I did call the Patriots-Seahawks outcome correctly.
This Groundhog Day I want to honor economic forecasters—and one in particular, Herman Stekler—rather than make fun of them, which is what I’ve tended to do on past Groundhog Days. Herman has had a 60-year career in forecasting and is still making predictions on everything that moves, including Super Bowl games. He recalls that the interview for his first job at Berkeley “occurred during the famous NY Giants–Baltimore Colts championship football game of 1959. Read the full article…
Posted by at 2:21 PM
Labels: Forecasting Forum
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Global Housing Watch Newsletter
This newsletter aims to present a snapshot of the month’s news and research on global housing markets. If you have suggestions on new material that could be included, you can send it by clicking here. The January 2015 issue includes:
- IMF issues report on housing markets in Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain
- The impact of decline in oil prices on housing
- Housing affordability emerging as an issue
- News and research for the following countries: Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Netherland, Norway, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, United Kingdom, United States, and cross country research.
Read the full newsletter here.
This newsletter aims to present a snapshot of the month’s news and research on global housing markets. If you have suggestions on new material that could be included, you can send it by clicking here. The January 2015 issue includes:
- IMF issues report on housing markets in Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain
- The impact of decline in oil prices on housing
- Housing affordability emerging as an issue
- News and research for the following countries: Brazil,
Posted by at 3:47 PM
Labels: Global Housing Watch
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