The Unassuming Economist

Forecasters have a poor reputation for predicting recessions. This Vox column quantifies their ability to do so, and explores several reasons why both official and private forecasters may fail to call a recession before it happens.

My profile of one of my thesis advisors, Robert Barro, for whom the LSE held a major conference last week. Of all the profiles I’ve written I like this the best — I think I knew the subject matter well and it shows. 

The IMF’s independent evaluation office released its study of IMF Forecasts: Process, Quality, and Country Perspectives. It concludes that “the accuracy of IMF short-term forecasts is comparable to that of private forecasts. Both tend to over predict GDP growth significantly during regional or global recessions, as well as during crises in individual countries.” The study thus confirms the two main findings of my 2001 paper: first, “the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished,” as I wrote; second, a statistical horse race between private sector and official sector forecasts ends up in a photo finish. My recent work with Hites Ahir looks at the record of professional forecasters in predicting recessions over the period 2008-12, also confirming both findings. The figure shows the close correspondence between Consensus (private sector) and IMF forecasts.

“House prices have increased rapidly, outpacing income and rental growth, along with strong demand for residential property loans, driven by a robust labor markets and falling lending rates. However, underwriting standards do not appear to have deteriorated, as evidenced by lower default rates by month on book for more recent vintages,” says the annual IMF economic report on Malaysia.