Tuesday, October 8, 2013
The ‘Shale Gale’ and the ‘China Chill’: the IMF’s Commodity Market Review
How will the shale revolution affect U.S. GDP and trade
balance? How would a growth slowdown in China affect commodity exporters?
Answers given in the IMF’s commodity markets review, released this morning as
part of the World Economic Outlook.
the unconventional energy revolution on U.S. prospects. The simulations of the
IMF’s large scale models suggest a modest impact: increases in unconventional
energy production of the magnitude currently forecast will raise U.S. real GDP
by only 1.2 percent at the end of 13 years and employment by 0.5 percent. The
main reason is the small share of energy in the U.S. economy, even after
factoring in the additional production.
China’s growth slows from an average of 10 percent over the past decade to an
average of 7 ½ percent over the coming decade? The IMF’s illustrative
calculations rank the countries that have benefitted the most from past Chinese
growth—and therefore the ones that could be vulnerable in the absence of
policy actions.
new analysis from my colleague Samya Beidas-Strom on the drivers of the
Brent-WTI differential
How will the shale revolution affect U.S. GDP and trade
balance? How would a growth slowdown in China affect commodity exporters?
Answers given in the IMF’s commodity markets review, released this morning as
part of the World Economic Outlook.
Shale Gale: There has been some euphoria about the impact of
the unconventional energy revolution on U.S. prospects. The simulations of the
IMF’s large scale models suggest a modest impact: increases in unconventional
energy production of the magnitude currently forecast will raise U.S. Read the full article…
Posted by at 1:00 PM
Labels: Energy & Climate Change
Monday, September 30, 2013
Global House Prices: falling, recovering, or bubbling?
My colleague Hites Ahir, who has worked with me over the years on housing issues, is making this presentation at UDC today. What’s the answer to the question posed in this title? See his presentation below to find out.
My colleague Hites Ahir, who has worked with me over the years on housing issues, is making this presentation at UDC today. What’s the answer to the question posed in this title? See his presentation below to find out.
Posted by at 1:56 PM
Labels: Global Housing Watch
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Judging Jeff Sachs
I wrote a profile of economist Jeff Sachs that paints a positive picture of his achievements, particularly of his early work in Poland. A new book seems to be much more critical of Sachs, particularly of his recent work in Africa, according to this book review.
I wrote a profile of economist Jeff Sachs that paints a positive picture of his achievements, particularly of his early work in Poland. A new book seems to be much more critical of Sachs, particularly of his recent work in Africa, according to this book review.
Posted by at 10:03 AM
Labels: Profiles of Economists
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Distributional Consequences of Fiscal Consolidation
The IMF released a second working paper on the distributional impacts of fiscal consolidation. Like the previous work, this one concludes that “fiscal consolidations are likely to raise inequality through various channels including their effects on unemployment. Spending-based consolidations tend to worsen inequality more significantly, relative to tax-based consolidations.” For more on the IMF’s recent work on fiscal policy, see this presentation at UNICEF.
The IMF released a second working paper on the distributional impacts of fiscal consolidation. Like the previous work, this one concludes that “fiscal consolidations are likely to raise inequality through various channels including their effects on unemployment. Spending-based consolidations tend to worsen inequality more significantly, relative to tax-based consolidations.” For more on the IMF’s recent work on fiscal policy, see this presentation at UNICEF.
Posted by at 1:30 PM
Labels: Inclusive Growth
Sunday, September 15, 2013
Global House Price Watch
2. … with house prices rising in 30 countries out of 51 included in the index
3. Among OECD countries, increases and declines are more evenly balanced
4. In most OECD countries house price-to-rent ratios remain above their historical averages …
5. … as do house price-to-income ratios
Here’s the full report.
1. Index of global house prices keeps inching up …
2. … with house prices rising in 30 countries out of 51 included in the index
3. Among OECD countries, increases and declines are more evenly balanced
4. In most OECD countries house price-to-rent ratios remain above their historical averages …
5.
Posted by at 10:23 PM
Labels: Global Housing Watch
Subscribe to: Posts