The Unassuming Economist

“Residential real estate prices in Dubai have been rising substantially, while other market segments, especially office space, are recovering at a slower pace. The recovery in the Abu Dhabi real estate market has been lagging,” according to the latest IMF economic report on UAE. On Dubai and Abu Dhabi, it says:

• “The recovery in Dubai is largely concentrated in high-quality residential properties, helped by robust non-oil GDP growth, increasing numbers of expatriates, and Dubai’s relative stability as an investment destination. Residential real estate prices rose on average 16 percent year-on–year in April 2013. Supply growth was modest in 2012 but is expected to increase in 2013. Hotel occupancies and room prices have increased significantly because of a substantial rise in tourism. Despite a large increase in the supply of office space, a recovery in rentals started in late 2012.”

• “The recovery of the real estate market in Abu Dhabi has been lagging. Price increases in the residential market have been modest (4 percent year-on-year in April 2013). New supply of office space has remained substantial, with constant high-quality rental rates since mid-2012, while lowerquality office leases are still facing downward pressure. Retail supply could grow significantly in 2013, which could place downward pressure on rentals, which have been flat in nominal terms since 2009. Demand for hotel rooms has not kept up with supply in 2012, and significant further capacity is expected to come on stream this year.”

Here is a snapshot of the recent developments in the U.S. housing sector. For more information see the report here.

“Real estate has rebounded,” is one of the messages of the latest IMF’s economic report on China. The report says, “Real estate investment in 2012 accounted for 12½ percent of China’s GDP, 14 percent of total urban employment, and rising share of FAI. Lending to real estate is primarily for household mortgages and has slowed recently. The real estate market has shown signs of a recovery lately, with moderate growth in prices, investment, and sales and affordability indices have been improving and prices now seem to be broadly in line or even below fundamentals nationwide and in major cities. Over the medium term, residential construction is likely to slow as the market matures.”

“(…) house prices in the UK are currently high relative to incomes and rents,” says the latest IMF report on house prices in the UK. More specifically, it says:

• “Residential property prices in the UK are elevated relative to incomes and rents. Although house prices declined significantly during the crisis (13 percent), they have recovered substantially, reaching near pre-crisis peak values. Moreover, residential property values are currently about 20 percent above their historical average values of price-to-income and price-to rent ratios.”

• “This aggregate trend masks some variation across regions. London remains prime real estate and prices are now 12 percent higher relative to their 2007 peak value. In the South East region, prices have stabilized at around 4 percent above their pre-crisis peak values. By contrast, in the rest of Britain house price inflation is zero, although residential values have stabilized at around 6 percent above their trough values.”

• “Overseas investment may be an important factor in driving the rapid increase in London house prices. London receives a constant flow of property investors from across Europe, the Middle East and Asia, who are looking for safe investments to protect their wealth. House purchases by foreigners amounted to 5 percent of total transactions in the UK in 2012, and this represented a 40 percent increase relative to 2010 in value terms.”

“House prices slightly below pre-crisis peaks,” says IMF’s report on Malta that was released today. According to the report, “the fall in property prices was not drastic. The decline in property prices during the crisis was 8 percent. The loss in household wealth from property was thus moderate. Malta’s house prices are one of the most undervalued amongst the advanced economy countries, indicating there is no potential risk of correction in the property market. Both the price-to-income and price-to rent ratio remain one of the lowest among the advanced economies.”