The Unassuming Economist

Improvements in energy diversification for OECD nations – a key determinant of energy security – are mostly attributable to the increased importance of natural gas as an energy source, a recent IMF working paper reveals. To read more, see the commercial climate’s Blog article on the paper.

From today’s New York Times — “The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished,” wrote IMF economist Prakash Loungani in one of many papers demonstrating the near-universal truth that economists’ predictions are least accurate when they are most needed. Read the rest of the New York Times excerpt of this new book on the dismal record of economic forecasting by Dan Gardner.

World oil prices are back above $100 a barrel, more than double levels two years ago, but increased diversification of energy supplies has given many economies greater resilience to price fluctuations. However, countries remain vulnerable to supply disruptions and extreme oil price volatility. To continue reading, see the IMF Survey piece on the rising oil prices.