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Inclusive Growth

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Global Housing Watch

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Forecasting Follies

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Energy & Commodities

House Prices in Ireland

“House prices are rising nationally, with strong growth in Dublin and increases emerging elsewhere (…),” according to the latest IMF report on Ireland.

“House prices are rising nationally, with strong growth in Dublin and increases emerging elsewhere (…),” according to the latest IMF report on Ireland.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 2:26 AM

Labels: Housing

Reforming Dual Labor Markets In Advanced Economies

Labor market duality has increased dramatically in many advanced countries in recent years. While duality has some positive aspects, microeconomic and cross-country studies suggest that an excessive reliance on “non-regular” employment has a negative impact on total factor productivity (TFP) and growth, according to Giovanni Ganelli. His excellent article summarizes recent research on this topic, and draws some policy implications for reforms aimed at reducing duality and creating more inclusive labor markets in advanced economies.

Labor market duality has increased dramatically in many advanced countries in recent years. While duality has some positive aspects, microeconomic and cross-country studies suggest that an excessive reliance on “non-regular” employment has a negative impact on total factor productivity (TFP) and growth, according to Giovanni Ganelli. His excellent article summarizes recent research on this topic, and draws some policy implications for reforms aimed at reducing duality and creating more inclusive labor markets in advanced economies.

Read the full article…

Posted by at 1:47 PM

Labels: Unemployment

The China Chill & the Shale Gale: The IMF’s Commodity Market Review

The latest IMF’s Commodity Review was presented at the MENA Industrial Gas Conference 2013. On my presentation, Rob Cockerill tweeted:

  • “The message here is firstly that the advanced economies in the west, particularly the US and Europe, have to be very nimble in their policy making. Secondly, if countries who have benefited from China’s growth in the past fail to diversify, they will be vulnerable.”
  • “Thirdly, don’t get carried away by the shale gale – the numbers do not translate into huge income gains in the US and therefore won’t have huge impact elsewhere. It might have huge impact for companies, but not countries.”
  • “US incomes go up, by just a little over 1% after 12-13 years, there is very little additional employment generated from this, and domestic demand goes up by about 1.5% – we’re not talking about big changes in the US. Which means, we are not talking about big changes in the rest of the world either.”
  • “We revise our forecast every three months, and what you can see here is that we have revised down our global forecast slightly, and we have also revised this down for 2014.”
  • “This is due to some revisions within our outlook of developing and emerging economies. If you break down within the emerging markets, we’ve really marked down Russia, India and China, a little bit. The BRICs are areas where we are seeing softness, more than we did three months ago.”

For a summary of the conference click here and here

The latest IMF’s Commodity Review was presented at the MENA Industrial Gas Conference 2013. On my presentation, Rob Cockerill tweeted:

  • “The message here is firstly that the advanced economies in the west, particularly the US and Europe, have to be very nimble in their policy making. Secondly, if countries who have benefited from China’s growth in the past fail to diversify, they will be vulnerable.”
  • “Thirdly,

Read the full article…

Posted by at 1:39 PM

Labels: Energy

Moving closer? Changing patterns of labour mobility in Europe and the US

Labour mobility is one of the keys to a successful currency union – be it within or across nations. This column discusses new evidence showing that the shock-absorbing role of migration has increased in Europe and declined in the US. During the Great Recession, European migration remained high – although not high enough given the vast differences across the Eurozone. Overall, Europe has strengthened this essential adjustment mechanism. Read the full column here

Labour mobility is one of the keys to a successful currency union – be it within or across nations. This column discusses new evidence showing that the shock-absorbing role of migration has increased in Europe and declined in the US. During the Great Recession, European migration remained high – although not high enough given the vast differences across the Eurozone. Overall, Europe has strengthened this essential adjustment mechanism. Read the full column here

Read the full article…

Posted by at 10:28 PM

Labels: Unemployment

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