The Unassuming Economist

An update of my previous work on forecasting turning points. While the previous work was on how well economists could predict recessions, this one is on how well they can predict recoveries.

“Our classification implies that [x%] of US jobs can plausibly be performed at home.” What’s your guess for x? Compare your guess to calculations by Dingel and Neiman:

‘I won’t be logging in today. Forgot my password.’.

A new measure of uncertainty related to pandemics and other disease outbreaks finds that uncertainty around the coronavirus is exceptionally high and is much higher than in past outbreaks.

On cross-country:

• Property price dynamics: domestic and international drivers – Bank for International Settlements
• Forget London House Prices. Take a Look at Paris – Bloomberg

On the US:

• Victims of NIMBYism, Unite – The Atlantic
• Technology is poised to upend America’s property market – Economist
• The cost of buying and selling homes is too high – Economist
• When California’s housing crisis slammed into a wealthy suburb, one public servant became a convert to a radically simple doctrine – New York Times
• Discriminatory housing practices are leading to the devaluation of Black Americans – Brookings
• The Distributional Impact of the Sharing Economy on the Housing Market – Harvard University
• Amid Climate And Housing Crises, Cities Struggle To Place Housing Near Transit – NPR
• Corporate Landlords Aren’t the Real Culprit – The Atlantic
• 10 Surprising Facts from America’s Rental Housing 2020 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Black Homeownership Shows Signs of Healing From the Wounds of the Great Recession – Zillow
• Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects of New Housing in Low-Income Areas – Philadelphia Fed
• California Housing Crisis Podcast: Presidential candidates want to make housing affordable – Los Angeles Times
• California Housing Market is Coming Back (Podcast) – Bloomberg
• Offering renters longer leases could improve their financial health and happiness – Brookings
• Home Value Growth Expected to Re-Accelerate Just in Time For Home Shopping Season – Zillow

On other countries:

• [Australia] The Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Local Housing Markets – Reserve Bank of Australia
• [Canada] Canada tweaks mortgage stress test in move that could boost housing market – Reuters
• [China] China’s Real-Estate Market Is Coronavirus Latest Victim – Wall Street Journal
• [Czech Republic] Prague’s unaffordable Old Town sends homebuyers to the suburbs – Financial Times
• [Ireland] Irish house prices grow at slowest rate in six years – Reuters
• [Ireland] Ireland’s political mess rooted in QE house price fallout – Financial Times
• [Netherlands] What is fuelling the Dutch house price boom? – Bruegel
• [South Africa] How Cape Town’s drought led to a housing market downturn – Financial Times
• [United Kingdom] How to fix Britain’s housebuilding problem – Financial Times

As 2019 draws to a close, below is our list of the top ten blogs of the year.

• Housing Market in Sweden
• Housing View – January 3, 2019 [2019 AEA Annual Meeting Special Edition]
• Paul Cheshire on Urban Economics 
• 2019 AEA’s papers on Inequality
• Housing Market in Malta
• 2019 AEA’s papers on Energy and Climate Change 
• Housing Market in Finland 
• Understanding Housing Supply: Views from Jenny Schuetz 
• Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income and Economic Growth 
• Daniel Hamermesh: How Do People Spend Time?

Photo by Colton Duke