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Saturday, February 11, 2023
The latest release of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices showed that cities in Florida reported the highest annual house price gains among the 20 cities covered by the indices. Miami led the way with a 18 ½ % increase, closely followed by Tampa with a 17% percent increase.
A new NBER Working Paper “Florida (Un)Chained” by Charles W. Calomiris and Matthew S. Jaremski, available here, looks at Florida’s land boom and crisis of mid–1920s, which can be helpful in drawing parallels to the present. Below we present the figure 2 from their paper that depicts East Cost Railroad and Monthly Building permits by city.
The authors reach the following conclusions –
· Florida’s unique land markets and banking system explains why developers and not just depositors suffered great losses.
· The crisis can be explained using bounded rationality as people behaved reasonably given the information available to them. Individual agents did not invest in obtaining further information that may have led to different decisions and behavior.
· National advertisements for Florida land led to many of these properties being purchased from a distance. Buyers did not have information regarding the extent of supply – or the quality of land. Given the lack of information on aggregate activity, supply began to exceed the potential demand. Advertisements often mentioned recent price rises to entice buyers with prospects of future returns.
· From a banking perspective, regulators and bank examiners did not prevent hidden risks from insider lending to be built into the system. These hidden risks ended up toppling many of these banks. Some banks indulged in fraudulent activities by hiding high levels of loan risks. Figure 7 from their paper provides the ratio of real estate loans to total loans in state bank by county.
· Will there be a crisis again and will it be different? The authors say that all crises are not alike, and they must be studied as distinct historical phenomena.
The latest release of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices showed that cities in Florida reported the highest annual house price gains among the 20 cities covered by the indices. Miami led the way with a 18 ½ % increase, closely followed by Tampa with a 17% percent increase.
A new NBER Working Paper “Florida (Un)Chained” by Charles W. Calomiris and Matthew S. Jaremski, available here, looks at Florida’s land boom and crisis of mid–1920s,
Posted by 11:27 PM
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Friday, December 2, 2022
On cross-country:
On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:
On the US—other developments:
On China:
On other countries:
On cross-country:
On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:
Posted by 1:04 PM
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Thursday, July 28, 2022
From the IMF’s latest report on Lithuania:
“To address potential risks to the financial sector from rising residential real estate prices, the BoL has implemented a series of macroprudential measures. These include tighter down payment requirements for second and subsequent housing loans and a new sectoral systemic risk buffer for banks with the largest mortgage portfolios. The distribution of loan-to-value ratios on new loans has shifted down since the measure was implemented. The BoL estimates that these measures could reduce new mortgages by 10 percent and slow house price growth by as much as 3 percent. However, the effectiveness of capital-based measures might be limited given excess capital and the profitability of the banking system. Addressing some of the underlying structural bottlenecks in housing supply will help contain real estate prices that, over the last year, appear to have deviated from fundaments in the Vilnius area. This would require a comprehensive approach to regional development and changes in land-use policies to increase allocation to residential housing.
Given higher uncertainty, the emphasis should remain on mitigating potential financial stability risks. While the banking sector remains among the most concentrated in the EU, the degree of concentration across loan segments—and most notably consumer loans—has declined after the third largest bank completed its restructuring. At the same time, interest rates on loans have declined without affecting credit standards. Low interest rates and strong household income are factors driving the boom in the residential real estate market. However, rapidly rising house prices, record sales, buyer intent indicators, and an increase in secondary mortgages may be signs of overheating. Nearly half of real estate transactions do not involve a mortgage, suggesting that an increase in interest rates may have a limited effect on house prices. The expected rapid growth of an online fintech bank focused on non-resident activity and ambitious expansion plans across the EU will require sustained supervisory efforts by national and supranational authorities.”
From the IMF’s latest report on Lithuania:
“To address potential risks to the financial sector from rising residential real estate prices, the BoL has implemented a series of macroprudential measures. These include tighter down payment requirements for second and subsequent housing loans and a new sectoral systemic risk buffer for banks with the largest mortgage portfolios. The distribution of loan-to-value ratios on new loans has shifted down since the measure was implemented.
Posted by 6:32 AM
atLabels: Uncategorized
Friday, March 4, 2022
On cross-country:
On the US:
On China
On other countries:
On cross-country:
On the US:
Posted by 5:00 AM
atLabels: Uncategorized
Friday, December 10, 2021
On Nov. 30, Paul Krugman gave a very lucid exposition of why he was on “Team Transitory”. Will today’s release of the US CPI lead to a change in his position on inflation? Here’s a link to the video of the Nov. 30 webinar.
On Nov. 30, Paul Krugman gave a very lucid exposition of why he was on “Team Transitory”. Will today’s release of the US CPI lead to a change in his position on inflation? Here’s a link to the video of the Nov. 30 webinar.
Posted by 8:42 AM
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