The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Justina Joseph Jeyaraj, Shyue Chuan Chong, Mui Yin Chin, Lee Peng Foo:

“Youth unemployment remains a persistent global challenge, clouded by the uncertainties surrounding the expanding digital and gig economies. As governments now turn their attention to regulating the gig economy, the potential impact on youth unemployment is unclear. This study seeks to address this gap by investigating the optimal level of labour regulation that can harness the gig economy’s potential to alleviate youth unemployment, among countries from different geographical locations. Drawing from panel data from 79 countries between 2017 to 2021, the threshold of labour regulation that would mitigate youth unemployment was estimated using the Dynamic Panel Threshold Model (DPTM). The findings reveal that the gig economy’s benefits are maximised when countries achieve a specific threshold of labour regulation—53.5596 on a 100-point scale. This suggests that regulations should not be too stringent, as this can stifle job creation and limit opportunities for youth, leading to higher unemployment. Conversely, overly lenient regulations can lead to exploitation and deteriorating working conditions, which also contribute to unemployment. The policy implications include introducing moderate labour regulations mirroring traditional labour markets, improving cybersecurity and data protection, and creating co-working spaces to reduce social isolation. Additionally, transboundary labour regulations are also essential to safeguard gig workers.”

From a paper by Christos A. Makridis  and Saurabh Mishra:

“The share of artificial intelligence (AI) jobs in total job postings has increased from 0.20% to nearly 1% between 2010 and 2019, but there is significant heterogeneity across cities in the United States (US). Using new data on AI job postings across 343 US cities, combined with data on subjective well-being and economic activity, we uncover the central role that service-based cities play to translate the benefits of AI job growth to subjective well-being. We find that cities with higher growth in AI job postings witnessed higher economic growth. The relationship between AI job growth and economic growth is driven by cities that had a higher concentration of modern (or professional) services. AI job growth also leads to an increase in the state of well-being. The transmission channel of AI job growth to increased subjective well-being is explained by the positive relationship between AI jobs and economic growth. These results are consistent with models of structural transformation where technological change leads to improvements in well-being through improvements in economic activity. Our results suggest that AI-driven economic growth, while still in the early days, could also raise overall well-being and social welfare, especially when the pre-existing industrial structure had a higher concentration of modern (or professional) services.”

On cross-country:

• How cohesion policy helps solve Europe’s housing crisis – European Commission
• Stronger Asian currencies a mixed blessing for region’s property markets. While currency appreciation may provide relief for property investors, economies reliant on trade and tourism should proceed with caution – South China Morning Post
• NIMBYism and how to resolve it. A diagnosis and a solution. – The Works in Progress Newsletter

Working papers and conferences:

• Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance – Dallas Fed
• El Clasico of Housing: Bubbles in Madrid and Barcelona’s Real Estate Markets – Research Institute of Applied Economics
• Tax Preferences and Housing Affordability: Explorations using a Life-Cycle Model – NBER
• Income Inequality, Mortgage Debt and House Prices – SSRN
• Distributional effects of monetary surprises across regional housing markets – SSRN

On China:

• China’s developers at risk as young home buyers walk away. There are signs of hope for the market but not enough to help developers out of their current predicament – FT

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] RBA interest rate cuts expected to drive home-buyer activity but economists doubtful of ‘boom market’. Though analysts still expect multiple rate cuts this year, expectations for major drops are evaporating – The Guardian
• [Australia] House prices and Trump tariffs: what does the RBA’s rate cut mean for you? – video – The Guardian

On other countries:  

• [Canada] In Canada’s residential mortgage market, it’s the Big Banks against everyone else – The Globe and Mail
• [Hong Kong] Cheaper private flats in Hong Kong don’t erase need for subsidised housing. Although home prices have fallen, subsidised housing’s raison d’être remains, with larger units much in demand – South China Morning Post
• [Ireland] Ireland’s main banks flag lack of appetite for house building – Reuters
• [Norway] Nordea Questions Norway’s Data on Faltering Home Construction – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Spain Orders Airbnb to Take Down 66,000 Rental Listings. The government is widening a crackdown on tourist rentals as it seeks to alleviate a painful housing crunch. – New York Times
• [United Kingdom] How to fix the UK’s housing crisis. For young adults, property shortages reinforce the feeling that life is a zero-sum game – FT
• [United Kingdom] Average asking price for home in Great Britain hits new high of almost £380k. Rightmove says figure has risen in May by 0.6% compared with April despite lower demand from new buyers – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Owners of second homes in Wales are having to sell up. That’s no disaster: it’s a godsend. Council tax hikes on holiday homes aren’t ‘anti-English’ or detrimental to tourism. This is about preserving embattled communities – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rose by most since 2022 in March, official data shows – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Kensington and Chelsea house prices fall to lowest since 2013. Sharp decline comes as prime London market suffers effects of higher property taxes, Brexit and non-dom changes – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Housing market shift: Foreclosures are creeping back up again. Foreclosures are up 40% year over year, but they’re still 13% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. – Fast Company
• US Mortgage Rates Rise to Three-Month High, Slowing Home Demand – Bloomberg
• Americans are getting priced out of the American dream. As mortgage rates top 7% and home prices come in at $400,000, more and more Americans can’t afford to buy – Quartz
• In Q1 2025, 19% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family – Calculated Risk
• Home-Price Trends in Opportunity Zones Still Following National Patterns During First Quarter of 2025 – ATTOM
• Trump floats sale of government-controlled housing finance giants. Such a move would be a massive shift for the housing market. – Politico

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
• Cost of Credit Eases for Builders and Developers – NAHB
• Gavin Newsom lays down the law on housing construction. The governor is wielding his power on an issue at the heart of California’s struggle to address soaring costs. – Politico
• Housing Affordability and Supply: Rising Inventory, But for Whom? – Realtor.com
• The Ultra Wealthy Are Riding Out the Market Chaos in Luxury Real Estate. Despite broader economic uncertainty, major markets like New York, Miami and Aspen have seen a surge in sales for homes priced at $10 million and up – Wall Street Journal
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April – Calculated Risk
• Fresh Listings Tick Up—but Sales Lose Steam Over Stubbornly High Mortgage Rates – Realtor.com
• Single-Family Starts Down on Economic and Tariff Uncertainty – NAHB
• Single-Family Home Construction Drops as Tariff Turmoil Hits Homebuilders – Realtor.com
• Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April – Calculated Risk  
• U.S. Housing Starts Ticked Up in April. The gauge of new residential construction rose 1.6% last month – Wall Street Journal
• US Housing Starts Increase on Pickup in Multifamily Construction – Bloomberg
• Tariffs Suppress New Construction in April, but Multifamily Projects Outperform – Realtor.com
• Flat Custom Home Building Trends – NAHB
• Flat Growth for Single-Family Built-for-Rent – NAHB
• California Home Sales “Retreat” in April; New Listings “Surge”. Active Inventory Highest Since October 2019 – Calculated Risk
• Slight Gains for Townhouse Construction – NAHB
• Spring Homebuying Season Sputters as Supply Jumps to 5-Year High, Existing-Home Sales Drop to 6-Month Low – Redfin

On other developments:    

• 5 Policies to Help Curb Housing Costs Immediately. These tools are effective ways to increase housing supply and homeownership opportunities – Pew
• US Housing Outlook – Apollo
• Housing market shift explained—and where it’s happening the fastest. The Pandemic Housing Boom was too much, too fast. Now, we’re in an affordability-constrained housing market—and it’s driving up the number of active listings for sale. – Fast Company
• How do you grade the Spring housing market? – Calculated Risk
• Single-Family Home Size Trending Higher – NAHB
• Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011. Zillow projects that U.S. home prices will fall 0.9% between April 2025 and April 2026. Zillow economists had previously expected national home prices would rise this year. – Fast Company
• Georgia Is One of the Few Places Where Middle-Class Americans Can Afford an Average-Priced Home – Realtor.com  
• Home Depot shows that the housing market chill is hitting hard. $400,000 houses at 7% mortgage rates are weighing on the DIY trade. Just ask Home Depot – Quartz
• Income Growth Helps Mute Existing Affordability Constraints – NAHB

From a paper by Mahdi Shahrazi, Saman Ghaderi & Bahram Sanginabadi:

“The potential influence of global commodity prices on consumer price inflation has been a concern of researchers and policymakers for decades. Even though a body of literature has investigated such connections, the results are mixed. This study uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to investigate the impact of global commodity prices on Iran’s inflation over the 2009:1-2018:11 period. We have included commodity price, exchange rate, and stock returns as explanatory variables in our model. Based on the findings of our long-run multiplier matrix the response of inflation to the commodity price shocks is positive and statistically significant. In other words, global commodity prices increase Iranian inflation. Also, the results suggest that the explanatory power of commodity price shocks in inflation fluctuations is higher than those of exchange rate and stock returns in the long run.”