The Unassuming Economist

From the Astana Times:

“The global economy remains slow, creating major challenges for reducing poverty and inequality. According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook update, global growth is expected to be 3.2 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2025, which is much lower than the pre-pandemic average of 3.8 percent.

Economic stagnation often leads to fewer job opportunities and low wage growth, worsening long-term unemployment and reducing the share of income that goes to workers. The pandemic has made inequality worse, with widespread job losses and income gaps causing a 0.5-point rise in the global Gini index in 2020.

In response to these challenges, governments need to focus on inclusive growth to create strong and resilient economies. Inclusive growth ensures that economic prosperity benefits everyone, especially the most vulnerable. It aims to create decent jobs, expand opportunities for all, and promote fairer wealth distribution.

Kazakhstan is at a crucial point in its development, working to shift toward a more inclusive and sustainable growth model. As part of its commitment to the United Nations 2030 Agenda, the country is focused on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to improve the well-being and prosperity of its people. Over the past three decades, Kazakhstan has used its natural resources to achieve significant economic progress, becoming a key player among oil-producing nations.

However, the benefits of growth have not been equally distributed. The Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality, saw a notable decline from 0.366 in 2000 to 0.267 in 2009. Yet, the years following 2010 revealed a gradual rise in inequality, with the coefficient fluctuating between 0.278 and 0.291. Between 2013 and 2023, the Gini index increased by 5.1%, reflecting challenges in achieving equitable growth.

Data from the World Inequality Database highlight disparities in wealth distribution. The wealthiest 1% of Kazakhstan’s population controls 29.2% of the nation’s assets, while the bottom 50% holds a mere 4.6%. 

In response to these challenges, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev introduced a new economic course in 2023. This ambitious strategy aims to achieve sustainable economic growth rates of 6–7% and double the size of the national economy to $450 billion by 2029. At the heart of these reforms lies the principle of inclusivity, with a strong focus on equitable wealth distribution to ensure that “every citizen tangibly benefits from the fruits of consistent economic progress.””

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From a paper by David Barmes, Irene Claeys, Simon Dikau and Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva:

“Central banks have made significant progress on incorporating climate risks into their monetary policy frameworks to address the economic and financial challenges posed by climate change. Key developments include conducting climate scenario analyses to evaluate the financial system’s resilience to climate-related risks, exploring how climate change affects price stability and monetary policy transmission, integrating climate variables into forecasting frameworks, fostering collaboration through initiatives like the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) and, in some cases, integrating sustainability considerations into monetary operations such as collateral frameworks and quantitative easing programmes. Despite this progress, a critical area remains underexplored: the challenges that inflation-targeting central banks may face if confronted with more frequent, persistent and severe climate-related supply shocks.

Unlike demand shocks, supply shocks create trade-offs for central banks and, unlike transitory supply shocks, persistent supply shocks can lead to a systematic and prolonged overshooting of inflation targets and undermine long-term macroeconomic stability. A small number of senior figures in the central banking community have recently begun to highlight the risks of a future of intensified supply-side volatility (Brainard, 2022; Schnabel, 2023; Maechler, 2024; Bénassy-Quéré, 2024). Building on these analyses, this report aims to spark a policy discussion on adaptive inflation targeting, with a view to equipping central banks with a framework, analysis and toolkit that enables them to better navigate these supply-side disruptions. To maintain credibility and ensure the smooth implementation of possible changes to existing inflation-targeting regimes, central banks must communicate these changes clearly in times of relative stability when inflation is at or around target.”

From The Astana Times:

“Making fiscal policy more pro-poor, improving the quality of education, and strengthening climate resilience are critical priorities for policymakers to reduce poverty and inequality in Kazakhstan, according to the Kazakhstan Poverty and Equity Assessment 2024 report, published by the World Bank on Dec. 12.

Kazakhstan’s economy has shown robust growth since 2006, with an average annual rate of 4.7%. This has improved living standards and elevated the country to upper-middle-income status, lifting 5.9 million people out of poverty and reducing the poverty rate from 49.5% to 8.5% over the same period.

Consumption growth, fueled by higher labor incomes, has been the main driver of poverty reduction. However, the report identifies three distinct phases in Kazakhstan’s poverty reduction journey. Between 2006 and 2013, poverty declined rapidly but saw a partial reversal during the 2014-2016 economic downturn, which increased poverty rates. From 2016 to 2021, poverty reduction resumed but at a slower pace.

The middle class has expanded significantly since 2006, increasing 2.5-fold to reach 67% of the population in 2021, compared to 26% in 2006. However, growth stagnated after 2013 as structural transformation and productivity gains slowed. The report underscores the importance of diversifying Kazakhstan’s economy, which remains heavily dependent on commodity exports.”

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From a paper by Radhika Pandey, Ila Patnaik and Rajeswari Sengupta:

“It has been eight years since India adopted the inflation targeting (IT) framework for its monetary
policy. In this paper we present a comprehensive analysis of the IT regime, addressing several critical
aspects. We evaluate the performance of inflation over this period, and review the conduct of monetary
policy during and after the Covid-19 pandemic. We also identify key challenges that persist particularly
in context of the Impossible Trilemma and highlight issues that may require further examination in
order to improve the effectiveness of the IT framework in the future.”

A list of papers that study the economic effects of rent control

1. Housing market spillovers: Evidence from the end of rent control in Cambridge, Massachusetts – Autor, Palmer, and Pathak (2014)
2. The effects of rent control expansion on tenants, landlords, and inequality: Evidence from San Francisco – Diamond, McQuade, and Qian (2018)
3. Robbing Peter to pay Paul? The redistribution of wealth caused by rent control – Ahern and Giacoletti (2022)
4. Rent control effects through the lens of empirical research: An almost complete review of the literature – Kholodilin (2024)