The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Daniel A. Dias and João B. Duarte:

“In this paper we study the effect of monetary policy shocks on housing rents. Our main finding is that, in contrast to house prices, housing rents increase in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks. We also find that, after a contractionary monetary policy shock, rental vacancies and the homeownership rate decline. This combination of results suggests that monetary policy may affect housing tenure decisions (own versus rent). In addition, we show that, with the exception of the shelter component, all other main components of the consumer price index (CPI) either decline in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock or are not responsive. These findings motivated us to study the statistical properties of alternative measures of inflation that exclude the shelter component. We find that measures of inflation that exclude shelter have most of the statistical properties of the widely used measures of inflation, such as the CPI and the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), but have higher standard deviations and react more to monetary policy shocks. Finally, we show that the response of housing rents accounts for a large proportion of the “price puzzle” found in the literature.”

From the IMF’s latest report on Indonesia:

“There are no signs of asset bubbles—residential property prices grew by 3 percent (y/y) in 2018:Q4, while commercial property prices have been flat since 2017.”

 

From the IMF’s latest report on Lithuania:

From the IMF’s latest report on France:

“Spending on housing is among the highest among European countries, with mixed outcomes for vulnerable groups (…). Similar to the UK, France spends 1.3 percent of GDP on housing development and housing benefits compared to 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent in Germany and Italy respectively. However, this is associated with mixed outcomes: while the overburden rate of poor households is among the lowest in France (16 percent compared to 37 percent in the UK), the number of rooms per person in poor households is lower in France than in the UK and in Germany, and houses of those at the lowest end of the income distribution in France are three times more overcrowded than in the UK.”

 

From Visual Capitalist:

“With a decade-long bull market and an ultra low interest rate environment globally, it’s not surprising to see capital flock to housing assets.

For many investors, real estate is considered as good of a place as any to park money—but what happens when things get a little too frothy, and the fundamentals begin to slip away?

In recent years, experts have been closely watching several indicators that point to rising bubble risks in some housing markets. Further, they are also warning that countries like Canada and New Zealand may be overdue for a correction in housing prices.

Key Housing Market Indicators

Earlier this week, Bloomberg published results from a new study by economist Niraj Shah as he aimed to build a housing bubble dashboard.

It tracks four key metrics:

1. House Price-Rent Ratio
   The ratio of house prices to the annualized cost of rent
2. House Price-Income Ratio
   The ratio of house prices to household income
3. Real House Prices
   Housing prices adjusted for inflation
4. Credit to Households (% of GDP)
   Amount of debt held by households, compared to total economic output

Ranking high on just one of these metrics is a warning sign for a country’s housing market, while ranking high on multiple measures signals even greater fragility.”

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