The Unassuming Economist

On the US:   

• 2022 home prices will keep rising at or near double digits, predicts the analyst who called the current housing boom – American Enterprise Institute
• Flattening the curve: Pandemic-Induced revaluation of urban real estate – Journal of Financial Economics
• Supporting Philadelphia’s Black Homeowners in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis – Philadelphia Fed
• Introducing the Brookings and Ashoka Collaborative Innovation Challenge: Valuing Homes in Black Communities – Brookings
• Affordable Housing as a Pathway to Economic Opportunity – Harvard University
• Desperate for Housing Options, Communities Turn to Ballot Initiatives. Cities and counties will vote on measures, like tax increases and curbs on Airbnb, aimed at creating more affordable housing. – New York Times
• In a Supertall Tower, How Much Affordable Housing Is Enough? The only residential building at the World Trade Center will be 25 percent affordable — a real accomplishment, supporters say. Others insist it should be 100 percent. – New York Times
• ‘Palm Beach is sold out’ after frenzied pandemic property sales. Prices are rising as millionaires are priced out by billionaires, pushing them to nearby West Palm Beach – FT
• As Boomers Downsize, Competition Grows for Simpler—but Not Always Smaller—Homes. Smaller houses, desired by aging seniors and young couples, are among the toughest to find – Wall Street Journal
• ‘Gimme Shelter’: Meet California’s housing chiefs – Los Angeles Times
• States under time crunch to provide housing assistance: How to fix it – Brookings
• ‘Don’t Buy Zillow Homes’: A Tale of Failure, Mistrust and Hot Housing Markets. Twitter and TikTok users are raging against the real estate firm as it looks to sell 7,000 homes for $2.8 billion following the failure of a much-vaunted business. – Bloomberg
• Could Zillow buy the neighborhood? iBuyers want to be the Amazon of real estate. What does that mean for the rest of us? – Vox
• Zillow May Have Stumbled, But iBuying Is Here to Stay – Barron’s
• Strip Malls to Homes: An Analysis of Commercial to Residential Conversions in – Terner Center for Housing Innovation
• AEI housing market indicators, October 2021 – American Enterprise Institute
• Institutional Investors Have a Comparative Advantage in Purchasing Homes That Need Repair – Urban Institute
• Eviction and Voter Turnout: The Political Consequences of Housing Instability – Princeton University

On China

• China’s long wait for a tax everyone loves to hate. The government will at last roll out a property tax – The Economist
• The strongest weapon in Xi Jinping’s common prosperity armoury is a property tax – Quartz
• How China’s property crackdown is being felt in a remote city steeped in Communist Party lore. Beijing’s push to reduce excessive borrowing in the property sector and tame house prices is hurting regional finances. The policy tightening could be related to the current political cycle ahead of the 20th Party Congress, some analysts say – South China Morning Post
• Why China May Not Bail Out Evergrande. A complicated political calculus goes into which businesses Beijing cares about most. – Foreign Policy
• Why Beijing will endure property tax’s drag on housing market – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia’s Hot Housing Market Shows Signs of Cooling Momentum – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Borrowers rush to lock in low interest rates amid expectations of RBA rise. Rising house prices and a resurgent economy could nudge the Reserve Bank to raise rates for first time in 11 years – The Guardian
• [Brazil] Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform – NBER
• [Brazil] How to improve access to housing for the low-income population? – IADB
• [Canada] Bank of Canada’s early lift-off warning may dampen housing boom fanned by speculators – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] What Hong Kong must do to solve the city’s perennial housing and land shortage problems – South China Morning Post
• [Israel] Israel Plans AirBnB Restrictions, Taxes to Curb Housing Prices – Bloomberg
• [Italy] Living on my own: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on housing demand – Bank of Italy
• [New Zealand] Growing supply will bring down New Zealand house prices, says RBNZ’s Orr – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Homeowners face biggest hike in mortgage costs since 2008. Data from government’s independent forecasting unit suggests interest payments could increase by 13% in 2023 – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Surge in mortgage lending prompted by stamp duty deadline. The end of the tax break in September fuelled lending but the outlook for approvals remains ‘resilient’ – FT
• [United Kingdom] Rising Interest Rates Expected to Cool U.K. Housing Market – Bloomberg

From a new paper by Arpit Gupta, Vrinda Mittal, Jonas Peeters, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh:

“We show that the COVID-19 pandemic brought house price and rent declines in city centers, and price and rent increases away from the center, thereby flattening the bid-rent curve in most U.S. metropolitan areas. Across MSAs, the flattening of the bid-rent curve is larger when working from home is more prevalent, housing markets are more regulated, and supply is less elastic. Housing markets predict an urban revival with urban rent growth exceeding suburban rent growth for the foreseeable future, as working from home recedes.”

From Raj Chetty’s (Harvard University) Testimony Before the House Financial Services Committee:

“Stable housing in high-opportunity neighborhoods can provide a critical foundation for a variety of outcomes such as future earnings, health, and education. Failing to meet our children’s basic housing needs serves to worsen already-stark racial and economic disparities and bar generations from growing up and joining the middle class.

Today, we have an unprecedented opportunity to expand access to neighborhoods that research shows are foundational to children’s and families’ long-term success. Well-designed expansions of the Housing Choice Voucher program, public housing investments, the Housing Tax Credit, and place-based investments could significantly increase housing supply and access to opportunity. Such investments can give all children an opportunity to grow-up in communities that will support their long-term success.

More broadly, to achieve long-term mobility for all children in the United States, we must reduce historic patterns of segregation that have limited access to opportunity-rich neighborhoods, particularly for Black and Hispanic Americans. Equally important, we must also increase opportunity in communities that do not presently see such outcomes. Expanding access to affordable housing can be valuable on both fronts. We must continue to deploy our resources towards increasing options for low- and middle-income families living in areas currently offering high levels of opportunity, and simultaneously to maintain and expand high-quality housing options and community development efforts in areas that currently offer lower levels of opportunity. These strategies will help ensure that all families have a true choice about where to live, reduce the present bifurcation between ‘high’ and ‘low; opportunity areas across the country, and give all children – irrespective of their race, ethnicity, or family income – a chance of achieving the American Dream.”

On cross-country:

• Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices? – NBER
• Call for Papers: ESCP-TAU-UCLA Conference on Low-Income Housing Supply and Housing Affordability, June 14-16, 2022 – American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association
• Call for Policy Papers on Rethinking Cities for Resilience and Growth in the Post-COVID-19 World – Asian Development Bank Institute

On the US:   

• Should You Buy a Home in the US? – Project Syndicate
• NY Fed’s Williams says rising home prices don’t pose financial stability risks – Reuters
• America’s Housing Boom Will Keep Builders and Agents Busy. There is no more off season any more for housing as builders and buyers make up for lost time – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Market Shows Cracks With Price Cuts in Pandemic Boomtowns. In places like Boise, homebuyers are gaining an edge after a real estate frenzy. – Bloomberg
• The Market for Single-Family Rentals Grows as Homeownership Wanes. House hunters are attracted to the hassle-free living and lack of down payments, but there’s a trade-off: They give up the investment of owning a home. – New York Times
• Pelosi tries to salvage housing aid. The White House as of Friday was refusing to go above $150 billion for housing, according to two people familiar with the talks. – Politico
• How Private Equity Landlords are Changing the Housing Market – Cato Institute
• The Economic Burden of Pension Shortfalls: Evidence from House Prices – NBER
• New York Fed Releases White Paper on Effective Eviction Prevention and New Data Collection Efforts Focused on Renters and Landlords – New York Fed
• Why America’s real estate industry is so racist. MacArthur Fellow Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor writes about how, 53 years after the Fair Housing Act, Black families still face rampant housing discrimination. – Fast Company
• Commercial Real-Estate Sales and Values Surge to Records. Investors hunting for yield gobbled up apartment buildings, life-science labs and industrial properties during the third quarter – Wall Street Journal
• Congress isn’t going to save the housing market. Build Back Better doesn’t build enough. – Vox

On China

• China expands property tax trials in next step of ‘common prosperity’ drive. Xi Jinping backs plan to test levy that could alter country’s economic model – FT
• China’s new property tax may prompt owners of multiple homes to sell down their holdings before prices take a hit, say analysts. – South China Morning Post
• How China Is Rolling Out a Property Tax on Homes, and Why – Bloomberg
• Another Chinese property developer defaults, shares drop – Reuters
• The effect of homeownership on migrant household savings: Evidence from the removal of home purchase restrictions in China – Economic Modelling

On other countries:  

• [Germany] In Berlin 85% of people rent their homes — and prices are spiralling. The end of a rental cap and a shortage of stock are making the German capital unaffordable for many – FT
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong house prices fall by the most in nearly a year as volatile stock market hits buying sentiment – South China Morning Post
• [Italy] Why Americans and Britons Are Rushing to Buy Idyllic Homes in Italy. A range of tax incentives, relatively lower prices and the potential for working remotely is driving up demand from house hunters overseas. – Bloomberg
• [Namibia] How innovative construction could ease Namibia’s housing crisis – World Economic Forum
• [Singapore] The go-go property market doesn’t have legs. Stretched valuations, worsening demographics and policy risks are flashing warning signs – The Straits Times
• [Thailand] Thai central bank eases mortgage rules to support property sector – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Will the UK embrace long fixed-rate home loans? Lenders have been slow to heed Boris Johnson’s call to action on mortgage terms – FT

On cross-country:

• IMF urges caution as house prices surge globally – Irish Examiner
• Creating Housing Markets in Emerging Market Economies – IFC
• Warning: Some Transaction Prices can be Detrimental to your House Price Index – University of Graz

On the US:   

• RV Capital of America Tops WSJ/Realtor.com Housing Index in Third Quarter. Index ranks cities for appreciating housing markets and lifestyle amenities – Wall Street Journal
• Construction on new homes slows as supply-chain woes hit the housing market. The number of housing projects completed in September fell to the lowest level in over a year – Market Watch
• U.S. homebuilding stumbles as supply constraints mount – Reuters
• Another upward force on American inflation: the housing boom. Property could join energy, shipping, used cars and wages as a contributor to rising consumer prices – The Economist
• Immediate and Longer-Term Housing Market Effects of a Major U.S. Airport Closure – NBER
• Do Restrictive Land Use Regulations Make Housing More Expensive Everywhere? – Economic Development Quarterly
• Psychoanalyzing the Housing Frenzy With Redfin’s CEO. The emotional and financial stakes of buying a home have never been higher. – Curbed

On China

• China new home prices hit by first month-on-month fall since 2015. Data reveal price decline in big cities in September as weakness in real estate sector reverberates – FT
• Chinese developer Sinic defaults as Evergrande deadline looms. More companies miss debt payments as country’s real estate sector contracts in third quarter – FT
• Evergrande: concerns linger even as embattled developer’s Hengda unit makes interest payment on US$327 million onshore bond. – South China Morning Post
• Evergrande’s debt crisis sates appetite for risk, forcing 206 plots to withdraw from China’s land auctions since September – South China Morning Post
• Housing slowdown threatens China’s economic muscle – Axios
• China’s property and construction sectors contract in third quarter as Evergrande crisis and tougher regulation hit home – South China Morning Post
• In Tackling China’s Real-Estate Bubble, Xi Jinping Faces Resistance to Property-Tax Plan. After negative feedback from within the party, an initial proposal to test a property tax in some 30 cities has been significantly scaled down – Wall Street Journal
• Time for orderly resolution for Evergrande is running out. If the state has a grand plan, it will need to make it known soon – The Economist

On other countries:  

• [New Zealand] New Zealand plans new housing density laws to tame red-hot property market – Reuters
• [New Zealand] Sweeping housing legislation could reshape New Zealand cities for decades to come. Housing campaigners welcome changes, saying they will boost businesses, lower emissions and enable better transport links – The Guardian
• [Turkey] Housing prices in emerging countries during COVID-19: evidence from Turkey – International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis
• [United Kingdom] The problem with new-build property. It loses its premium over time, so mortgage providers are more reluctant to lend to those with small deposits – FT