The Unassuming Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Call for Papers: 6th Workshop on Rent Control on June 22-23 – KTH Royal Institute of Technology
• Credit Constraints and the Redistribution of Housing Wealth – CEPR
• Not Cashing In on Cashing Out: An Analysis of Low Cash-Out Refinance Rates – Philadelphia Fed
• Is it better to rent or buy? Much depends on long-term interest rates – The Economist

On China:

• China’s property woes could last until 2030. Despite the best efforts of its social-media censors – The Economist
• How China’s property crisis helped crash its art market. A gold-framed view into the world of China’s wealthy – The Economist

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Tipped to Rise After ‘Stagnant’ Year – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Toronto Housing Market Ended 2025 With Declines in Prices, Sales – Bloomberg
• [Canada] Quiet December caps off lackluster 2025 for Canada’s housing markets – RBC
• [Korea] Seoul Apartment Prices Continue to Rise Ahead of BOK Meeting – Bloomberg
• [Portugal] Portugal’s support for young home buyers proving effective, minister says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK Housebuilding in Sharpest Drop Since Covid Lockdown of 2020 – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s Housing Crisis Is Hitting New Depths – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Britain’s Housing Crisis Has Seeds in the 1930s – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] House price growth to beat the consensus forecast in 2026 – Capital Economics

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• How a Rent Freeze Helped Destroy Public Housing – AEI
• Mamdani Names Housing Leader and Pledges ‘Rental Rip-off’ Hearings. Mayor Zohran Mamdani named a housing commissioner and announced that the city would hold public hearings where frustrated renters could voice their complaints. – New York Times
• The Contradictions of Supply-Side Socialism. Zohran Mamdani signs executive orders to speed up new construction. His housing policy picks also want to abolish private property. – Reason
• The Rent-Control Slums of New York. Mayor Mamdani tries to stop a bankruptcy his new housing czar caused. – Wall Street Journal
• Democratic Sanity on Rent Control. Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey opposes a destructive state referendum. – Wall Street Journal
• Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Rates End 2025 at the Lowest Level of the Year – NAHB
• Higher interest rates transform housing market, Texas real estate workforce – Dallas Fed

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Donald Trump moves to ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Change would hit buyout groups such as Blackstone and Cerberus that have amassed large residential portfolios – FT
• White House moves to ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Change would hit buyout groups such as Blackstone and Cerberus that have amassed large residential portfolios – FT
• President Donald Trump Is ‘Taking Steps’ To Ban Investors From Buying Single-Family Homes – Realtor.com
• Trump says he’ll ban large investors from buying homes, with few details. Politicians in both parties are trying to respond to voter anger over the price of housing. – Washington Post
• Trump’s Pledge to Evict Big Investors from Housing Market Hits Rental Stocks – Wall Street Journal
• Trump says he will ban big investors from buying single-family homes. Median sale price was at $410,800 last year, according to the Census Bureau, even as Trump campaigned on affordability – The Guardian
• Trump Targets Institutional Investors in Affordable Housing Push – Bloomberg
• Barring Institutional Investors From Buying Homes Won’t Make Housing More Affordable – and Would Likely Make Things Worse. There is no evidence that institutional investors increase prices. Barring them from the market could actually exacerbate the housing crisis. – Reason  
• Trump pushes to limit Wall Street’s footprint in housing. Housing affordability is set to be a central battleground in this year’s midterm elections. – Politico
• Housing Supply & Demand Explained in 1 Graph. And why house prices are so erratic – Real Estate Decoded
• Homebuilding and Remodeling Depend on Immigrant Labor in Major Metros – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Why America stopped building the ‘starter home’. Concepts about starter homes seem inconsistent with today’s prices and expansive floor plans, leaving many first-time homebuyers with few options. – Washington Post
• President Trump’s New Housing Policy Should Include Massive Privatization of Federal Land. The U.S. government currently owns 28% of the land in the United States, which is way too much. – Reason
• The Contradictions of Supply-Side Socialism. Zohran Mamdani signs executive orders to speed up new construction. His housing policy picks also want to abolish private property. – Reason
• Washington D.C.’s Stockpile of Old Offices Makes It a Mecca for Housing Conversions. Nation’s capital converts more offices to apartments than almost anywhere else – Wall Street Journal
• Construction Job Openings Increased in November – NAHB
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December – Calculated Risk 
• Section 8 cuts would send shockwaves through the housing market – The Hill

On other developments:    

• Two Simple Ways to Fix Housing in America – Bloomberg
• This Is Not the Way to Make Housing More Affordable – Bloomberg
• Americans Are Looking to the Midwest to Find Affordability. The region offers housing costs below the national median and steady wage growth – Wall Street Journal
• US Housing Outlook – Apollo
• Richmond ranked a top housing market for 2026 – Axios
• Yes, Politicians Should Run on Affordability – New York Times
• The Condo Market Hasn’t Been This Bad in Over a Decade. Condo prices this fall posted their biggest declines since 2012, hit by rising homeowner-association dues and weaker demand – Wall Street Journal
• Trump Rolls Back Tariffs on Furniture and Kitchen Cabinets. The president has watered down import levies on a host of products in recent months to address concerns about the cost of living – Wall Street Journal
• Zillow’s CEO Is Ready for Another Slow Year in the US Housing Market. The $16 billion company is pushing more into the transaction side of the real estate industry, which Jeremy Wacksman calls ‘a better business to be in.’ – Bloomberg
• Housing Share of GDP: Third Quarter 2025 – NAHB
• The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP – Calculated Risk
• Dems launch election-year affordable housing blitz – Axios
• Why housing reforms struggle to deliver on their central promise. Attempts to lower home prices will falter without follow-through. – Washington Post
• Tariffs, Manufacturing, Housing: Questions for 2026 – Cato
• The Best Markets for First-Time Homebuyers in 2026 Revealed – Realtor.com 
• Home Affordability Remains Strained Nationwide, with Modest Fourth Quarter Improvement – ATTOM

From a paper by Victor Shevchu:

“The aim of the article is to present results of the study on the link between business cycle and house prices in 16 regional capital cities in Poland. Using quarterly data for the period 20102024, the study finds that regional business cycle effects on cyclical fluctuations in regional house prices are predominantly positive. Following an increase in the National Bank of Poland (NBP) reference rate, house prices are on a decline in 11 out of 16 regional capital cities. The effects of housing quality and the exchange rate on house prices are ambiguous.”

On cross-country:

• Global house prices declined in real terms by 0.8% year on year (yoy) in Q2 2025, slightly less compared with the previous quarter (–1.0%). – BIS
• Where house prices are rising fastest globally – Global Property Guide
• European progressives must tackle housing crisis to beat far right, say researchers. Centre left can win broad support by addressing soaring house prices and rents, according to data analysis – The Guardian
• Commissioner Jørgensen welcomes recommendations by the Housing Advisory Board on how to tackle the housing crisis – European Commission
• New Housing in Europe publication out now – Eurostat
• Real estate investment: micro-apartments as a housing trend. Micro-apartments: the smart housing trend – compact and profitable. Ideal for urban lifestyles, they offer investors high rental income but also come with risks such as higher management costs and vacancies. – UBS

Working papers and conferences:

• The Mortgage Debt Channel of Monetary Policy when Mortgages are Liquid – University of Chicago
• “Giving Up”: The Impact of Decreasing Housing Affordability on Consumption, Work Effort, and Investment – SSRN
• Market segmentation and housing prices. Did relaxed credit standards drive the housing boom that led to the Great Recession? – American Economic Association
• The Global Value of Cities – NBER
• The Spatial Distribution of Income in Cities: New Global Evidence and Theory – NBER
• How spatiotemporal urban expansion shapes heat trends in coastal megacities: Developed vs. developing nations – Urban Climate

On China:

• Why China Can’t Sort Out Its Property Market Mess – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] ‘I would just like to see more people housed’: inside NSW’s social housing changes – The Guardian
• [Australia] Australia Caps Risky Loans as Home Prices and Credit Surge – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia Building Activity Jumps in Race to Ease Housing Stress – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] NZ’s housing funk sows doubts on reliable investment strategy, drags on economy – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Ontario’s housing affordability crisis extends far beyond Toronto – Fraser Institute
• [Denmark] Danish Home Price Spike Puts Central Bank on Alert for Stability – Bloomberg
• [Hong Kong] Momentum builds: ‘bigger’ Hong Kong property rebound forecast for 2026. Resurgent stock market helps steer secondary home prices to 14-month high as rent index maintains historical peak – South China Morning Post
• [Hong Kong] Three Arrested as Hong Kong Fire Death Toll Rises to at Least 65. Officials said firefighters extinguished fires in four towers of a high-rise complex, and blazes in three others were effectively under control – Wall Street Journal
• [Portugal] Housing crisis creates “new social challenges” in Portugal – European Commission – ENR
• [Switzerland] Swiss regulator warns mortgage risks are rising as banks stretch lending rules – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Mortgage brokers say house buying at risk from surveyor ‘down valuing’. London and the south-east said to be worst affected, with valuations often coming in at 10% below the agreed sale price – The Guardian
• [Vietnam] Surging Property Prices Draw Bidders for Derelict Vietnam Towers – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• America’s huge mortgage market is slowly dying. Donald Trump’s remedies threaten to inflame a housing crisis – The Economist
• Mortgage lending in America is seizing up. How to revive it. Some rules introduced after the financial crisis have gone too far – The Economist
• The 10 U.S. Cities Seeing the Biggest Home Value Boom Since 2019 – Realtor.com
• Tensions between renters and homeowners challenge Mamdani housing plan. The incoming New York City mayor’s plan relies on higher density in places where some neighbors oppose it. He is scheduled to meet Friday with the president. – Washington Post
• Zillow just revised its home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets. Zillow upgraded its national home price outlook slightly—predicting that over the next 12 months U.S. home prices are likely to rise 1.5%. – Fast Company
• Where Renters and Owners Face the Highest Cost Burdens – NAHB
• Luxury Homes Are Selling Faster as Prices Tick Down—and One Tropical Enclave Has Seen the Steepest Drop – Realtor.com
• Rents Drop in 5 Key Metros—What You Need to Know – Realtor.com
• NAR Housing Market Forecast for 2026—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September. FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in September – Calculated Risk
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October. Punta Gorda House Prices Down Over 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17% – Calculated Risk
• Household Debt Balances Grow Steadily; Mortgage Originations Tick Up in Third Quarter – New York Fed
• Understanding the Federal Home Loan Bank System: What It Is and Why It Matters – New York Fed 

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Trump needs to tackle housing supply, not mortgage rates. A focus on cutting interest costs only fuels home price inflation, hitting working families – FT
• Existing Home Sales Rise in October – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October. Median House Prices Increased 2.1% Year-over-Year – Calculated Risk
• When Home Sellers Set Prices Too High, They’re Paying for It. More than half of homes sold in 2025 through October had at least one price cut – Wall Street Journal
• Building Material Prices Continued to Rise in September – NAHB
• US Home-Purchase Applications Surge to Highest Since 2023 – Bloomberg
• Pending Homes Sales Climb 1.9% as This Region Outperforms the Rest of the Country – Realtor.com
• The ‘New’ Solution for the N.Y.C. Housing Crisis: Single-Room Apartments. There is a push to revive single-room occupancy housing, where kitchens and bathrooms are shared among apartments as small as 100 square feet each. – New York Times
• Delistings Jump 28% as Sellers Pull Homes Off Market Rather Than Settle For Low Prices – Redfin
• States look for clogs in the housing pipeline. As they seek to lower their residents’ housing costs, states are tweaking land use laws and other regulatory frameworks – Minneapolis Fed

On other developments:    

• The Housing Affordability Crisis Is Accelerating Fastest in Rural America – Redfin
• Job and Housing Stresses Are Caught in a Vicious Loop – Bloomberg
• What incentives are states offering to make houses less vulnerable to extreme weather damage? – Brookings
• Are millennials frozen out of the housing market? The reality may be more interesting. An eye-catching report said the average first-time homebuyer is now 40, but the story is more complex. – Washington Post
• America’s Housing Crisis, in One Chart – New York Times
• Every Housing Down Cycle is “unhappy in its own way” – Calculated Risk
• Mike Bird on the Land Trap and How the History of Housing Impacts the Global Economy – Mercatus Center
• Ezra Klein Needs to Look More Closely at His Housing Chart – CEPR
• Is the housing market at risk as more homeowners slip underwater? The share of mortgages that are underwater inches up to 1.6%—still far below the 23% seen in 2009. – Fast Company
• Pulte’s Move to Fix Credit Scores Is Bad News for Homebuyers. Bill Pulte declared by tweet that homebuying costs would be lower if FICO had competition—a move that instead risks pushing credit-score prices higher. – Bloomberg
• What it Means for Housing if the AI Bubble Bursts—5 Key Takeaways – Realtor.com
• Property Taxes by State – 2024 – NAHB
• L.A. Mayor Karen Bass Says You Can Defeat NIMBYism by Building Less – Reason 
• New York Leads Effort to Stop Plan That Could Cut Housing for 170,000. The Trump administration is pushing a new approach to America’s homeless crisis, favoring shelters and rehabilitation centers over long-term housing for people who use drugs and alcohol. – New York Times