The Unassuming Economist

From a paper by Remi Jedwab, Brian Blankespoor, Takaaki Masaki, and Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán:

“What are the spillover effects of foreign conflicts on regional economies, and what local factors can help mitigate the impact of such economic shocks? Adopting a difference-in-difference framework leveraging the breakout of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria in 2009, we study its effects in neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad and Niger that were not directly targeted by Boko Haram activities until the mid 2010s. We find strong negative effects on regional economic activities – proxied by reductions in nighttime lights – particularly amongst areas within 200 km from the Boko Haram area. This negative impact is concentrated in urban areas, as trade was impacted and economic uncertainty rose. The rise of Boko Haram also resulted in more agricultural burning. Foreign conflict shocks can thus accentuate pressure on domestic resources. Focusing on the heterogeneity of the impacts, we find smaller resilience effects in those areas with a worse geography, less agricultural development, more limited infrastructure, and weaker markets and institutions. Overall, these findings suggest that conflicts may have larger spillover effects in geographically challenging and/or economically poorer regions, as is the case in various regions of Africa.”

Working papers and conferences:

• Is there club convergence in the European housing markets? – IDEAS
• Missing Home-Buyers and Rent Inflation: The Role of Interest Rates and Mortgage Underwriting Standards – IMF
• Why Is Geographic Mobility Declining? – Richmond Fed

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Labor wants to fix Australia’s housing issues – but there’s little hope for those not already on the ladder. Without genuine reform, experts predict house prices to ‘climb by 6-10% in 2025’ and the gap between homeowners and those locked out of market to widen – The Guardian
• [Australia] Housing policy outlook clears after Federal Election in Australia – Oxford Economics

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Toronto home sellers are slashing prices, offering big discounts – Bloomberg
• [Germany] Real estate prices on the rise, especially in major cities – KIEL
• [Germany] German property prices rise sharply across seven biggest cities – Yahoo Finance
• [Mexico] El precio de la vivienda en México crece 8,2% en 2025, más del doble que la inflación. El precio promedio de una propiedad es de 1,8 millones de pesos, pese a que se ha desacelerado el incremento de precios – El Pais
• [Singapore] Forum: Housing agents not to blame for unrealistic price expectations – The Straits Times
• [Spain] BBVA Research: La escasez de oferta y la presión de la demanda impulsarán el precio de la vivienda un 7,3% en 2025 y un 5,3% en 2026 – BBVA
• [Sweden] Swedes’ Housing Optimism Weakens With Lower Consumer Confidence – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Map Shows Where Prices Are Dropping for Newly Built Homes as Builders Target Smaller Floor Plans – Realtor.com
• Widespread softening: Almost every major housing market is seeing softer pricing. Among the nation’s 50 largest metro-area housing markets, 49 have a weaker year-over-year home-price shift this spring than a year ago. – Fast Company
• Mortgage Rates for New Homes Are Typically Lower, New Research Finds – Realtor.com
• Residential Mortgages Experience Weaker Demand in First Quarter – NAHB
• Rent Prices Are Falling—but These 5 Coastal Cities Remain the Least Affordable – Realtor.com
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2025 – Calculated Risk  
• Q1 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Increase – Calculated Risk
• 2 Southern States Lead the U.S. With the Highest Number of Foreclosures – Realtor.com

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• 37 housing markets where sellers hold the most power heading into summer 2025. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, 37 still have significantly less housing inventory than they did in April 2019. – Fast Company
• The Spring Home Sales Season Is Shaping Up to Be a Dud. Inventory is rising, but high home prices and mortgage rates are putting off buyers during the prime selling season – Wall Street Journal
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 3, 2025 – Realtor.com
• Home Listings Surge to 6-Year High—but Cautious Buyers Hold Back – Realtor.com
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
• New-Construction Insights: Builders Deliver Smaller and More Affordable Homes in These Metros, but Tariffs Threaten Progress – Realtor.com
• Highest Paid Occupations in Construction in 2024 – NAHB
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Permit Activity Declines in March 2025 – NAHB
• First-Time Home Buyers Are Struggling. That’s Bad News for Builders. Even with construction companies offering cheap mortgages, youngish people are finding it difficult to enter the market – Wall Street Journal
• What is driving up housing costs across the US? – Brookings
• Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence – NAHB

On other developments:    

• What Abundance Lacks. A bestselling progressive book gets its policy all wrong. – Foreign Policy
• US House to Claw Back Biden’s Climate Law to Fund Trump Tax Cuts – Bloomberg
• What’s new in building beautifully. Interesting developments from the last two decades – The Works in Progress Newsletter

On cross-country:

• How a mortgage transforms your investment portfolio. They turn retail savers into hedge-fund managers – The Economist
• Why skyscrapers are so short. How to overcome physical, economic and regulatory barriers and build taller – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• The purpose of a building is how it looks. True functionalism combines utility and beauty – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• From Projects to Process. The Promise of Service-Oriented Housing Development – Thesis Driven
• Where Healthcare Meets Housing. A new generation of operators are boosting returns by marrying Medicaid and real estate – Thesis Driven

Working papers and conferences:

• 5th International workshop on rent control – Universitat Rovira i Virgili
• Social media sentiment and house prices: Evidence from 35 Chinese cities – SSRN
• The Effects of Flood Risk Mandatory Disclosure on Housing Markets – SSRN 
• Global Variations of Urban Form: Characterization and Quantification through Intelligent Remote Sensing Image Analysis – Sustainable Cities and Society
• Introduction to Housing – Routledge

On China:

• China Weighs Housing Market Overhaul to Curb Pre-Sales – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] How Housing Became the Third Rail of Australian Politics. Going into a federal election, both major parties are hesitant to tame the sky-high property values that have priced many voters out of the housing market. – New York Times
• [Australia] Australian House Prices Hit Record High Ahead of Saturday’s Vote – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Our Carrie Bradshaw index shows Australia’s housing is in crisis. In most big cities, the average worker struggles to afford their own place – The Economist
• [Australia] Albanese tells crossbench to ‘get out of the way’ on housing as he faces calls for stronger action on environment. PM flags cutting university debts as priority for newly re-elected government as cabinet speculation swirls – The Guardian
• [New Zealand] New Zealand’s house price crash steepens – MacroBusiness

On other countries:  

• [Belgium] Brussels’ collapsing rental market: How Airbnb is draining the housing supply. In some parts of the city, over 30% of real estate has been converted into tourist accommodation. – The Brussels Times
• [Canada] Canada’s building homes fast─but for how long? – RBC
• [Canada] Canada’s housing markets crack under weight of trade war – RBC
• [Canada] Toronto Home-Price Declines Accelerate Amid Trade War With US – Bloomberg
• [Canada] GTA: Home sales remained depressed in April – National Bank of Canada
• [India] India sees debut listing of residential mortgage-backed securities – Reuters
• [Norway] Norway’s Home Prices Shrink for First Time in Nine Months – Bloomberg
• [Spain] Madrid’s House Prices Rise 24% as Real Estate Crunch Deepens – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] One-of-a-kind ‘Delayed Start’ mortgage launched in UK. The deal, unveiled by Skipton building society, means buyers would not have to make any repayments for the first three months – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK financial watchdog consults on steps to simplify mortgage rules – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK regulator to dilute mortgage lending rules. FCA responds to prime minister’s call for watchdogs to focus on promoting economic growth – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rose unexpectedly in April – Halifax – Reuters

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.5% below 2022 peak – Calculated Risk
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool – Calculated Risk
• Prices for New Homes Continue to Drop as Existing Rises – NAHB
• Renters Are Paying More Than Ever—Here’s Where Rents Have Spiked the Most – Realtor.com
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• Falling Rents Are Holding the Housing Market Captive. A historic wave of apartment construction has kept rental prices down in much of the US, allowing would-be buyers to put off purchasing decisions. – Bloomberg
• Trump budget would slash rental aid by 40% — and let states fill the gap if they want – NPR
• See Where Home Prices Are Rising and Falling the Most. Markets in Florida and Texas with lots of inventory post biggest price declines, while prices in Northeast and Midwest rise – Wall Street Journal
• Sellers in Sun Belt Cities Are Slashing Home Prices the Most—and the Majority of Cuts Are in Florida – Realtor.com
• High mortgage rates and tariff uncertainty drag on US housing market. Trump’s trade wars and federal job cuts lead to stagnation during what should be peak selling season – FT
• Mortgage Activity Levels Off in April as Rates Increase – NAHB
• April 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• 3 Reasons Why Houses Are So Expensive Right Now – Redfin
• Could climate change trigger the next subprime mortgage crisis? Climate change is quietly corroding the foundations of the U.S. housing market. The result could be disastrous. – Fast Company

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Canadian Snowbirds Are Selling. Which housing markets are most vulnerable? – Home Economics
• March Private Residential Construction Spending Dips – NAHB
• Federal opportunities to build housing supply and advance affordable homeownership – JP Morgan Chase Policy Center
• Would the Housing Crisis Ease if Boomers Rented Out Their Empty Rooms? Millions of single-family homes are underused, on spacious lots. Refitting them for “roommate houses” or backyard cottages could make a difference. – New York Times
• 69 housing markets where higher inventory is tipping scales to buyers. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, these 69 metro areas now have active inventory at or above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
• Residential Building Worker Wage Growth Slows Amid Softer Labor Market – NAHB
• Former V-P Mike Pence warns Trump’s tariffs could lead to US shortages – The Straits Times
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
• Multifamily Developer Confidence Falls in the First Quarter – NAHB

On other developments:    

• Is Florida’s Downturn Coming for the Rest of the Country? It feels a bit like 2004 – Home Economics
• Americans’ Satisfaction With ‘Good, Affordable Housing’ in U.S. Plunges—Here’s Why – Realtor.com
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March. Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Equals Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic) – Calculated Risk
• April 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• Homeownership further out of reach as rising prices, high mortgage rates widen affordability gap – AP
• Fitch Ratings to Host Webinar on State of the U.S. Housing Economy – Fitch
• Supporting bipartisan policies to tackle the national housing supply shortage – JP Morgan Chase 
• Trump Seeks to End Permanent Supportive Housing for the Chronically Homeless. More than 300,000 people live in such housing, all chronically homeless and disabled. Many are veterans. – New York Times
• Market Volatility Is Already Making the Housing Shortage Worse. What an Arizona land investor is seeing in the market – Bloomberg
• Proposed cuts to housing programs could affect millions, experts warn. The White House proposed slashing funding for Section 8 and other federal programs by about 43 percent, saying it will “fix our broken federal housing policy.” – Washington Post
• Problems With Low-Income Housing Tax Credits. State and local governments should reassess zoning rules, land-use regulations, and permitting requirements that raise costs and slow construction, particularly for multifamily housing. – Cato
• Home Equity Dips Slightly During First Quarter But Remains Near Historic Highs – ATTOM