The Unassuming Economist

On cross-country:

• Threat of global housing slide looms amid rising rates – Dallas Fed
• ‘The risk of a deep housing slide persists’: Dallas Fed says downturn in U.S. and German housing markets could affect the rest of the world – Market Watch  
• How low will house prices go? Lessons from UK, US, Europe and elsewhere – The Guardian

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to highest level since November – MBA – Reuters
• US to Cut Mortgage Insurance Costs for Some New Homeowners. Program seeks to ease soaring borrowing costs that hurt demand. Vice President Harris to announce the program on Wednesday – Bloomberg
• Mortgage applications plummet as rates jump – Axios  
• That 3% Mortgage Just Keeps Getting Better. As the Fed pushes interest rates higher, homeowners who secured ultra-cheap loans during the pandemic can invest in low-risk Treasuries that earn enough to significantly offset the cost of their homes. – Bloomberg
• Measures of Shelter in the CPI and PCE price indexes Still Increasing – Calculated Risk
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index “Decline Continued” to 5.8% year-over-year increase in December – Calculated Risk
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Declines for 7th Consecutive Month in January. 37 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
• U.S. house price inflation cools further in December – Reuters
• A Tight Labor Market Could Keep Rent Inflation Elevated – Kansas City Fed
• Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate. Expect YoY Rents to Slow Further – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

• America’s property market suggests recession is on the way. As developers find clever ways to cut mortgage rates, the Fed may fight back – The Economist
• Checking in on the U.S. Housing Market. Activity is normalizing along with rates. Builders’ prudence on hiring during the boomlet is now shielding the job market. – The Overshoot
• Will US Housing Crash The Economy? Maybe it’s different this time. – Bloomberg
• How homebuilders are luring buyers back – Axios
• New Home Sales Increase to 670,000 Annual Rate in January – NAHB
• New Home Sales Up in January but Higher Rates Signal Further Weakness – NAHB
• Lawler: AMH Net Seller of Existing Single-Family Homes, “Investor” Home Purchases Plunged – Calculated Risk
• America’s Housing Market Has Flipped But Not Flopped. A dearth of supply of existing homes is leading to a boom in building, despite sky-high mortgage rates. – Bloomberg
• U.S. pending home sales post largest gain in 2-1/2 years in January – Reuters
• The frozen housing market. And what it means for the economy – FT
• The Age Gap in Mortgage Access – Philadelphia Fed
• Financial Benefits Motivated Homebuying During the Pandemic, More So Than Space or Location Preferences – Fannie Mae
• How Is Digitalization Transforming How People Find and Finance Housing? – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Private Residential Spending Falls Slightly in January – NAHB

On other countries:  

• [Germany] Germany home prices to sink nearly 6% this year – Reuters
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices end seven-month decline with 0.6% rise in January – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Rising UK Rents Will Cushion Any Drop in House Prices. The cost to society of a dysfunctional housing market, as young aspiring buyers are thwarted while landlords saving for retirement are penalized, is rising. – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK’s Soaring Mortgage Costs Mean It’s Cheaper to Rent a Home. Capital Economics says average mortgage tops £1,000 a month. Renting probably will become more expensive next year – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] England’s new housing supply likely to fall to lowest level in decades, study says. Home Builders Federation warns planning policy changes will result in government meeting less than half its annual target – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] House building set to slump in England, warns trade body. Number of new properties completed each year could fall to 110,000 says Home Builders Federation – FT  
• [United Kingdom] Three years on: how the pandemic reshaped the UK housing market – Lloyds Banking Group
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices suffer biggest fall in more than a decade as higher interest rates bite. Nationwide figures show a greater than expected 1.1% drop in year to February – FT

From the IMF’s latest report on Belgium:

“Cooling of the housing market, which has been characterized by elevated prices, calls for heightened vigilance and release of buffers, if needed. Although valuations are not as stretched as elsewhere in Europe, model-based estimates point to some overvaluation. Bank mortgage exposures are relatively high, and debt-service-to-income ratios are somewhat elevated. Risks are mitigated by prevalence of mortgages with full-recourse provisions that amortize fully over the maturity of the loan and by a high share of fixed-rate and longer-term (>15 years) loans. A sectoral systemic risk buffer (SSyRB) against housing-related exposures introduced in May 2022 and tighter LTV limits imposed by prudential guidelines since 2020 provide additional comfort. Moreover, aggregate liquid assets of households exceed mortgage debt (…), potentially cushioning the impact of deteriorating income prospects on debt servicing capacity. Still, the recent slowdown of house-price momentum, potentially heralding a sharper market turn, deserves careful monitoring and SSyRB deployment, if needed. Despite limited use, strict eligibility criteria, and adequate provisioning, reactivating mortgage moratoria for October 2022-March 2023 to cushion energy-crisis impacts was inappropriate, as it may delay timely bank-borrower engagement to address debt-servicing challenges. NBB efforts to gather housing stock energy efficiency information to allow for better assessment of collateral values and risks are welcome and should continue, particularly given emerging stratification of house prices based on sustainability considerations.”

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Home Prices Are Overvalued but Will Decline Only Gradually – Kansas City Fed
• The housing market correction has already caused homeowners to lose $2.3 trillion – Fortune
• The housing market correction just took a new turn – Fortune
• As the Decade Long Home Price Boom Ends and a Major Home Price Correction Begins, the Impact Will Vary as Metro Areas Are Buffeted by a Variety of Headwinds and Tailwinds – AEI
• Has Housing Bottomed? – Seeking Alpha
• The value of US homes recorded its biggest six-month drop since 2008. The Bay Area saw the biggest fall, but the market is hot in flood-prone Florida – Quartz
• First time ever more “Built-for-Rent” Units started Quarterly than “Built-for-Sale” – Calculated Risk
• Multifamily Built-for-Rent Share Rises – NAHB
• CoreLogic: “US Annual Rent Price Growth Dropped by Nearly Half in December” – Calculated Risk
• Another Pointless Government Mortgage Pricing War Begins – AEI
• The Normal Seasonal Changes for Median House Prices – Calculated Risk
• Biden Administration to Cut Mortgage ​​Insurance Costs for Lower-Income Buyers – Wall Street Journal

On the US—other developments:    

• The State of US Housing: A Roller Coaster Ride – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• How the Housing Shortage Warps American Life. Atlantic writers explain why a lack of housing makes everything worse. – The Atlantic
• Additional Declines for New Home Size – NAHB
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in January – Calculated Risk
• Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in January – NAHB
• What Do US Growth Zones Have in Common? They Build Housing – Washington Post
• Congress Could Have Prevented 500,000 Foreclosures During The Great Recession But Chickened Out – Real Estate Decoded
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January. Year-over-Year: Sales Down Sharply, Inventory Increased, New Listings Down – Calculated Risk
• Missing Middle Housing Production Lags – NAHB

On China:

• Global Impact: China turns up the heat on its property sector as economy slowly rebuilds – South China Morning Post
• Chinese cities cut mortgage rates for first-time buyers to lowest since 2019 in bid to revive property market – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

• [Australia] Australia’s housing crisis: how RBA interest rate hikes are pushing families closer to the edge – The Guardian
• [Portugal] Portugal Wants to Force Owners of Vacant Homes to Find Tenants. Move is intended to ease tensions in a tight housing market. Property owners’ group calls proposed measure unconstitutional – Bloomberg
• [Singapore] Singapore’s soaring expat rents undermine bid to oust Hong Kong as finance hub. Rising living costs damage city-state’s ambition to lure regional businesses – FT
• [South Korea] South Korea’s ‘jeonse’ rent-free renters hit by property downturn – Reuters
• [Switzerland] How Does Immigration Affect Housing Costs in Switzerland? – IZA Institute of Labor Economics
• [United Kingdom] UK property asking prices show weakest February gain on record: Rightmove – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Britain Lacks Millions of Homes Due to Tight Planning Laws, Says Think Tank – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK’s Long Housing Boom Helped Trigger Exodus of Older Workers – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] Is a frozen market worse than a house price crash? UK housing downturns tend to live long in the memory, but a period of stagnation could be even more painful – FT

Presented at IHA Global Meetings 2023.

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

• Housing Slump Set to Give Fed an Inflation-Fighting Assist. A slowdown in new household growth could ease prices and rents, but rising wages cause worry – Wall Street Journal
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.8% Below Peak. Houses are the least “affordable” since 1982 when 30-year mortgage rates were over 14% – Calculated Risk
• Lawler: Update on Rent Trends. And an Update on New Cleveland Fed Rent Paper – Calculated Risk
• US House Prices by Census Division: Persistence, Trends and Structural Breaks – IDEAS
• Mortgages are still confusing… and it matters – How borrower attributes and mortgage shopping behavior impact costs – Fannie Mae
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index “Continued to Decline” to 9.2% year-over-year increase in October. FHFA: “House prices were flat nationwide in October, experiencing a 0.0 percent change from the previous month” – Calculated Risk
• Home Prices Fell in October for Fourth Straight Month. A jump in mortgage rates is curbing demand, with many economists expecting prices to continue sliding from their spring peaks – Wall Street Journal
• Double-digit U.S. home price growth streak skids to an end – Reuters

On the US—other developments:    

• The 2022 housing market: A tale of two halves. Less rate-dependent mortgage products, home equity loans, HELOCs were the name of the game in 2022 as the industry shrank – Housing Wire
• New Home Sales Increased in November; Previous 3 Months Revised Down Sharply. New Home Sales Increase to 640,000 Annual Rate in November – Calculated Risk
• November New Home Sales Up as Interest Rates Fall Back – NAHB
• Multifamily Construction Continues to Expand Outside Metro Core Areas – NAHB
• What Would It Take to Turn More Offices Into Housing? Vast amounts of empty real estate are a crisis for building owners. But some politicians and business leaders hope they can be converted into something new — and transform downtown neighborhoods. – New York Times
• Our Top 10 blogs of 2022 – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
• Top Posts of 2022: Housing Market at Inflection Point as Builder Confidence Continues to Fall – NAHB
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November. Year-over-Year: Sales Down Sharply, Inventory Increased, New Listings Down – Calculated Risk
• Existing Low-Rate Mortgages Blunt Impact of Recent Rate Surge – Dallas Fed
• Two Graphs Give Insight Into The Housing Market Present And Future – Seeking Alpha

On other countries:  

• [Australia] IMF sees potential for imminent ‘sizeable’ bust in Australia’s housing market. Report warns homes keep getting less affordable, and Australia has one of the highest rates of people spending more than 40% of their income on housing – The Guardian
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Tiniest Apartments Take Biggest Hit in Housing Slump. Nano-flat sales struggle most as buyers opt for bigger options. Developers only able to sell 48% of studio units in 11 months – Bloomberg
• [India] India’s Upscale Housing Market Strengthens, Defying Global Trend. Affluent Indians who throttled back on spending during the pandemic are returning to the country’s housing market in force – Wall Street Journal
• [Ireland] Irish property: the boom that shows no signs of slowing. While other markets cool off, Ireland is facing a housing shortage that is driving up the cost of renting and buying – FT
• [Latvia] Latvia’s high inflation gives an illusion that house prices are still rising – Global Property Guide
• [Mexico] As Remote Workers Flock to Mexico City, Airbnb and Housing Prices Soar. American and Europeans are using Airbnb to find long-term rentals in Mexico’s capital, pushing housing costs higher and, critics say, forcing out local residents. – New York Times
• [Singapore] Singapore Rents Forecast to Rise at Slower Pace Next Year. Private rents could rise 13% to 16% next year, researcher says. Influx of new private homes could ease rental pressure – Bloomberg
• [Singapore] Singapore’s house prices rising, despite falling demand – Global Property Guide
• [United Arab Emirates] New generation of rich spur boom in Dubai’s luxurious homes market. Demand soars since pandemic, with owners inundated with requests to sell homes with swimming pools and terraces – FT
• [United Kingdom] Experts predict housing market will cool in 2023 as UK enters a recession. The slowdown is expected to intensify with price declines between 5% and 12% – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK banks to ease pressure on mortgage holders as late payments set to surge. Some measures could include switching borrowers to interest-only deals – FT