The Unassuming Economist

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• Using Income Changes to Forecast Home Prices by County – Home Economics
• Expert Panel Expects Moderating Home Price Growth through 2026 – Fannie Mae
• Mortgage Rates Ease to 6.84% – Realtor.com
• Buyer-Friendly Housing Market Gets a Boost With a Dip in Mortgage Rates – Realtor.com
• Housing Isn’t Expensive for Everyone. Do you have a ZIRP-era mortgage or not? – Bloomberg
• Congress Considers a Crackdown on Those Spammy Calls From Mortgage Lenders. Legislation would curb ‘trigger leads,’ whereby credit bureaus sell your mortgage application information to competing lenders – Wall Street Journal 
• Trump has a plan to remake the housing-finance system. It’s baffling to many lawmakers and experts. The question of what to do with Fannie and Freddie, the two dominant mortgage financiers, has bedeviled policymakers for decades. – Politico

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• More Home Listings Are Paving the Way to a Buyer-Friendly Market – Realtor.com
• 32 housing markets where tight inventory still favors sellers. Among the nation’s 200 largest metro area housing markets, 32 markets at the end of May 2025 still had at least 50% less active inventory than in May 2019. – Fast Company
• New Real-Estate Math: Half a Million More Sellers Than Buyers. New listings haven’t been enough to jolt the housing market out of its slumber – Wall Street Journal
• Permit Activity Weakens in April 2025 – NAHB
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Reading Since 2012 – NAHB
• Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts – Calculated Risk
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May – Calculated Risk
• Sharp Drop in Multifamily Production Brings Overall Housing Starts Down – NAHB
• US single-family housing starts rise in May; permits slump – Reuters
• US housing construction falls to 5-year low as tariffs weigh on sector. Signs of property market weakness come hours ahead of Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates – FT
• Single-Family Home Construction Stays Muted in May as Builders Grapple With Rates and Tariffs – Realtor.com
• There Are Nearly 15 Million Vacant Homes in America—Here’s Where Most of Them Are – Realtor.com
•  Buyer-Friendly Housing Market Grows as Home Prices Hold Steady – Realtor.com
• Housing’s Woes Are a Leading Indicator – Wall Street Journal
• Housing Starts Weaken Amid Gloomy Builder Sentiment – Wall Street Journal
• The housing market slump is getting worse – Axios

On other developments:    

• Household Real Estate Asset Value Falls to Start the Year – NAHB
• Here’s how Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ would impact housing – CNN
• Why did those apartments for the poor cost D.C. more than $1 million each? – Washington Post
• The affordability gap: Is home ownership still within reach in today’s economy? – JP Morgan Chase
• Home Flipping Profits Drop in First Quarter – ATTOM
• The 10 states where homeownership will most be out of reach in 5 years. These 10 states are projected to have the largest gaps between income and homeowners in five years – Quartz
• Can You Guess the Hidden Costs of Homeownership? – New York Times

On cross-country:

• Luxury property’s final frontier. There is a boom in ultra-prime apartments in Africa’s megacities – The Economist

Working papers and conferences:

• Housing Affordability, Supply, and Spatial Misallocation – University of Washington

On China:

• China Taps $1.5 Trillion Fund to Boost Home Market Support – Bloomberg

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Australia’s rental crisis at home also cost its reputation abroad. Migrants drawn by Australia’s inclusive image encounter discriminatory rental practices that damage the nation’s soft power. – Lowy Institute
• [Australia] Average Australian home passes A$1m amid housing crisis – BBC

On other countries:  

• [Canada] Early signs of renewed housing market confidence emerge in Canada – RBC
• [India] India housing outlook steady but cracks from demand slowdown start to widen – Reuters poll – Reuters
• [Ireland] Ireland modifies rent controls as it seeks to revive homebuilding – Reuters
• [South Africa] Do too many people want a slice of Cape Town? South Africa’s second city is at a crossroads: those flocking to live there are powering the economy, but also driving up house prices and exacerbating a strained market and local infrastructure. For a city surrounded by ocean and mountains, the expansionist path forwards is a complex one – FT
• [United Kingdom] Residential UK house prices fall by more than expected amid economic uncertainty. Average property price drops 0.4% month on month in May to £296,648, Halifax says – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices slid in May following stamp duty tax hike, Halifax says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall by more than expected amid economic uncertainty. Average property price drops 0.4% month on month in May to £296,648, Halifax says – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] Rachel Reeves plans ‘housing bank’ to deliver cheaper financing for builders. UK chancellor also considers funding settlement of up to £25bn for social housing in Wednesday’s spending review – FT
• [United Kingdom] Labour’s housing dreams exceed UK developers’ reality. Industry still faces slow build despite hopes for action in government’s spending review – FT
• [United Kingdom] England’s social housing funds ‘less generous’ than £39bn settlement suggests. Analysis indicates spending of about £3bn a year until 2029, similar to AHP’s money for current financial year – FT

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: First Quarter 2025 – NAHB
• Price Cuts on Home Listings Surge to 9-Year High—and These 3 Cities Lead the Trend – Realtor.com
• Home Prices Pick Up Steam in the Hottest Housing Markets – Realtor.com
• Homebuyers face less housing market competition from investors right now. Two-thirds of single-family investors are struggling to find properties for sale that generate positive cash flow. – Fast Company 
• The Trump administration is working on a plan for time limits on rental aid – NPR
• Should federal rental aid come with a time limit? Here’s how it works in one place – NPR
• Fannie and Freddy back again – The Grumpy Economist
• It’s a Buyer-Friendly Housing Market as Mortgage Rates Dip – Realtor.com
• Trump Unlikely To Privatize Fannie and Freddie This Year, Says Mortgage Bankers Association CEO – Realtor.com
• The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q1. Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q1 – Calculated Risk

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• More Evidence of How Housing Regulation Is Bad for Housing – AEI
• Gentrification as a housing problem. The root cause is inflexible supply – The Works in Progress Newsletter
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 31, 2025 – Realtor.com
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• 10 states with the biggest housing market inventory shift. At the end of May 2025, 10 states had more active housing inventory for sale than they did in May 2019. – Fast Company
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025 – Calculated Risk
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025 2025 – Calculated Risk
• May 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor.com
• AI’s Role in Reshaping Employment: From Theory to Home Building Sector Impacts – NAHB  
• Why developers have stopped building apartments – Axios
• Investors Are Selling a Record Share of Homes To Cut Their Losses—Especially in These 5 States – Realtor.com
• Deporting Undocumented Workers Will Make Housing More Expensive – Home Economics
• 75 housing markets where inventory is catching up—fast. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, these 75 metro areas now have active inventory at or above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. – Fast Company
• The Housing Lobby’s Tax Boondoggle
• Republicans may expand a credit that subsidizes real-estate developers. – Wall Street Journal
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending June 7, 2025 – Realtor.com

On other developments:    

• Making the case for housing as a human right – NPR 
• Homeownership remains out of reach for many. What will it take to change that? – McKinsey
• Homesteading 2.0: A Proposal to Make Housing Affordable Again – AEI
• The Crime of Treating Housing as a Commodity. In New York City, working-class tenants are often victimized by predatory landlords. Their horror stories show the need for radical housing reform inside and outside the city. – Jacobin
• A West Virginia Salary Of Less Than $35K Will Let You Settle Into a Starter Home With Ease – Realtor.com
• Housing Subsidies Boost Costs – Cato
• U.S. Foreclosure Activity Sees a Slight Monthly Decrease in May 2025 – ATTOM
• World Bank Paints a Bleak Picture of the U.S. Economy—What It Means for Homebuyers and Sellers – Realtor.com
• States Can Help End the U.S. Housing Crisis Through Smart Policies – George W. Bush Presidential Center
• Slumlord Millionaire: how landlords, politicians and developers are fueling the housing crisis. New documentary examines how predatory practices, from inhospitable conditions to deed theft, affect New Yorkers – The Guardian
• Homeowners Are 43 Times Wealthier Than Renters – Realtor.com

On cross-country:

• We don’t need zoning. Cities shouldn’t micromanage their economies – The Post-Suburban Future
• What will it cost to build the cities of the future? – World Bank

Working papers and conferences:

• America’s Housing Supply Problem: The Closing of the Suburban Frontier? – NBER
• Global Housing Returns, and the Emergence of the Safe Asset, 1465-2024 – SSRN
• Measuring the Impact of the NAR Settlement – SSRN

On China:

• China is waking up from its property nightmare. An ecstatic $38m luxury-mansion auction lights up the market – The Economist
• New home prices in China rise on policy hope, private survey says – Reuters

On Australia and New Zealand:

• [Australia] Rate cut and hopes of more lift Australia home prices to record high in May – Reuters
• [Australia] Australian House Prices Continue to Climb After RBA Rate Cut – Bloomberg
• [Australia] Australia’s horror housing crisis singled out by global think tank – The Sydney Morning Herald
• [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Fall Further Even as Loans Get Cheaper – Bloomberg
• [New Zealand] New Zealand home prices to rise 3.8% in 2025 as rate cuts support the market – Reuters poll – Reuters

On other countries:  

• [Brazil] Brazil’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Canada] Why Canada should apply labour protections to the rental housing sector – The Conversation
• [Colombia] Vivienda sin llaves: el boom del arriendo en Colombia – Republica
• [Cyprus] Cyprus’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Georgia] Georgia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Netherlands] The Netherland’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Norway] Norway’s House Prices Flat in May as Property Market Cools – Bloomberg
• [Poland] Poland’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [Slovenia] Slovenia’s Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• [United Kingdom] The Guardian view on social housing: invest boldly to tackle ‘simmering anger’ about substandard homes. Two weeks before the spending review, the housing ombudsman has issued an important warning about a deepening crisis and growing human misery – The Guardian
• [United Kingdom] British home prices to rise 3.5% this year; government to miss 5-year building target: Reuters poll – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Return of 100% mortgage gathers pace as lenders target first-time buyers. More no-deposit deals to come after launches this month, say industry figures – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Post Surprise Increase in May, Nationwide Says – Bloomberg
• [United Kingdom] UK house price growth in May exceeds forecasts. Average cost of residential property rose 0.5% between April and May to £273,427 – FT
• [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise 3.5% y/y in May, Nationwide says – Reuters
• [United Kingdom] Stamp Duty Deadline Dents The UK Housing Market. Can we expect a rapid rebound, or stagnation later this year? – Bloomberg

On prices, rent, and mortgage:    

• US home prices to rise 3.5% this year but tariffs will hinder new construction: Reuters poll – Reuters
• Home Prices Rebound After Brief Pullback—but There’s Good News for Homebuyers – Realtor.com
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year. 4 of the 5 cities with largest price declines are in Florida! – Calculated Risk
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
• High Mortgage Rates Are Not Killing the Dream of Homeownership for One Generation – Realtor.com
• June ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool – Calculated Risk
• The Mortgage-Market Questions Key to a Public Offering for Fannie and Freddie. Trump administration wants to sell shares in these key financial companies. How it does so will have big impact on home buyers and owners. – Wall Street Journal
• Donald Trump’s plans for Fannie and Freddie would mean payday for hedge funds. Critics warn privatisation of the mortgage giants would enrich Wall St but endanger the housing market – FT 
• Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
• Mortgage Applications Dip in May amid Refinance Slowdown – NAHB

On sales, permits, starts, and supply:    

• Pending Home Sales Slump as Mortgage Prices Weigh. The pending home sales index sank 6.3% in April, more than offsetting the 5.5% rise in March – Wall Street Journal
• The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record. That Will Likely Cause Home Prices to Fall – Redfin
• Pending Home Sales Declined 6.3% in April – NAR
• U.S. Home Vacancy Rate Steady for 13th Straight Quarter – ATTOM
• Multifamily Absorption Moves Lower for New Apartments – NAHB
• Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 24, 2025 – Realtor.com
• The Housing Inventory Is Here—Where Are the Buyers? – NAR
• April Private Residential Construction Spending Dips – NAHB
• Redfin: These 31 major housing markets have shifted to buyer’s markets. The shifted U.S. housing market now has 500,000 more home sellers than homebuyers, Redfin calculates. – Fast Company
• U.S. Home Sellers Are Sitting on Nearly $700 Billion Worth of Listings, an All-Time High – Redfin
• States with Highest and Fastest Rising Construction Wages, 2025 – NAHB

On other developments:    

• Sun Belt buyers hold the most power this spring – Zillow
• Real Estate Mapped: U.S. Housing Affordability by State – Visual Capitalist
• We’re all addicted to Zillow now. Forget house hunting. Real estate listings are all about gossip, escapism and scoping out your neighbor’s bathroom renovation. – Washington Post
• A Soft Housing Market Isn’t Just a Florida and Texas Story Now. Sellers may be cutting prices, but buyers can wait. – Bloomberg
• Sellers outnumber prospective homebuyers as high prices and mortgage rates skew the housing market – AP
• The housing market cracks. It’s not just about affordability. – Quartz
• America’s housing market is cracking. After more than two years of relentless price increases, the fundamentals are shifting. What’s emerging is a dramatic reversal from what came before – Quartz  
• The Housing Market Was Supposed to Recover This Year. What Happened? Economists predicted that the United States would break free of its long-running housing slump in 2025. But the opposite happened. – New York Times
• How Trump’s Tariffs and Immigration Policies Could Make Housing Even More Expensive. Out-of-control housing costs helped Trump win the 2024 election. Is he about to make the problem worse? – Reason
• How the N.Y.C. Mayoral Candidates Plan to Solve the Housing Crisis. The candidates’ ambitious plans could bring hundreds of thousands of new homes to a city desperate for them, though many are light on details about how they’d pay for them. – New York Times
• The United States Residential Property Market Analysis 2025 – Global Property Guide
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in April. Fannie Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Jan 2011 (ex-Pandemic) – Calculated Risk
• 2025 Top Rental Markets for Recent College Graduates – Realtor.com
• New Housing Doesn’t Have to Create New Traffic. Americans want to reduce sprawl, but how we actually build depends on the city. – Slate
• First-Time Home Buyers Making Up a Smaller and Smaller Share of the Market – Apollo