Showing posts with label Forecasting Forum. Show all posts
Monday, January 7, 2013
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
A new paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. The authors find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
A new paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. The authors find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
Posted by at 2:50 PM
Labels: Forecasting Forum
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Seven Questions on Turning Points of the Global Business Cycle
The depth and breadth of the worldwide recession that followed the 2007–09 financial crisis have led to intensive discussions about the phases of the global business cycle—global recessions and global recoveries. The fragile nature of the ensuing global recovery has added a new twist to these discussions because of widespread concerns about the possibility of a double-dip global recession. This article provides brief answers to seven commonly asked questions about the global recessions and recoveries. Read more.
The depth and breadth of the worldwide recession that followed the 2007–09 financial crisis have led to intensive discussions about the phases of the global business cycle—global recessions and global recoveries. The fragile nature of the ensuing global recovery has added a new twist to these discussions because of widespread concerns about the possibility of a double-dip global recession. This article provides brief answers to seven commonly asked questions about the global recessions and recoveries. Read more.
Posted by at 9:54 AM
Labels: Forecasting Forum
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Honoring a Forecasting Giant
Herman Stekler has predicted 10 of the last 6 U.S. recessions. Despite this dismal forecasting performance, he is considered one of the giants of the economic forecasting profession. At the age of 80, he is still going strong, recently finishing his 100th academic paper.
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| photo: IMF |
A GW-IMF Forecasting Forum held on November 15-16, 2012 honored Stekler’s contributions to the profession. The program features papers by:
- Prakash Loungani on whether forecasters believe in Okun’s Law (they do);
- Neil Ericsson on uncovering biases in government forecasts of U.S. debt;
- Ulrich Frtische on whether there is (lack of) herding in foreign exchange rate forecasts;
- Michael Kumhof on what will happen to the price of oil in ten years (warning: this is not the official IMF view);
- Natalia Tamirisa on information rigidity in growth forecasts;
- Massimiliano Marcellino on whether the estimation of large Bayesian VARs can be speeded up by assuming a common stochastic volatility factor.
The papers can be downloaded from here along with the comments of the stellar group of discussants (Kajal Lahiri, Tara Sinclair, Ed Gamber, Danny Bachman, Robert Fildes, Jonas Dovern, Olivier Coibion, Andy Levin, Fred Joutz, Chris Erceg, Keith Ord and Xuguang Sheng).
The forecasters attending the forum had been asked to predict the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. Peg Young came the closest, predicting that Obama would win 50.5% of the popular vote (he got 50.6%) and 326 votes in the electoral college (he got 332).
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| photo: IMF |
Herman Stekler has predicted 10 of the last 6 U.S. recessions. Despite this dismal forecasting performance, he is considered one of the giants of the economic forecasting profession. At the age of 80, he is still going strong, recently finishing his 100th academic paper.
photo: IMF
A GW-IMF Forecasting Forum held on November 15-16, 2012 honored Stekler’s contributions to the profession. The program features papers by:
- Prakash Loungani on whether forecasters believe in Okun’s Law (they do);
Posted by at 6:05 PM
Labels: Forecasting Forum
Thursday, September 13, 2012
The Construction Sector: Reeling or Rolling?
sector is looking optimistic. In 2012, total construction spending is expected
to grow by 3 to 9 percent. And the future looks even brighter; total
construction is expected to go up by 6 to 10 percent per year in 2013-2017.
September 6, Ken Simonson, Chief Economist of the Associated General
Contractors, gave a presentation on the economic outlook for construction at an
event hosted by the National Economist Club.
construction sector? Simonson said that office, retail, and lodging
constructions are up due to remodeling. In addition, the production of shale
gas (67 percent increase in 2007-10), and the expansion of the Panama Canal are
driving new activity. Shale gas has both direct and indirect impacts on
construction. For example, the direct impacts include the construction of
access road, site preparation, storage pond, support structures, and pipes for
each well. The indirect impacts include local spending by drilling firms,
workers, royalty holders, among others.
construction in the United States? The expansion of the Panama Canal will
require an upgrade of the ports in the United States to accommodate larger
ships. The upgrade of ports includes investing
in dredging, piers, cranes, and access road. The upgrade will also lead to
possible bridge, tunnel, and highway improvements, resulting in possible
changes in inland distribution and manufacturing. Overall, private
nonresidential and residential spending are leading the way forward for the
construction sector.
According to Simonson, apartments and multi-family housing should boom. On
the other hand, single family housing is growing, but with an uncertain future.
He noted that the apartment vacancy rate is now at a 10-year low and rents are
high.
sector? “Construction added 0 jobs in 2 years, but unemployment is down,”
said Simonson. Basically, workers are leaving for other sectors, going back to school,
and retiring. Simonson presented a chart that showed the change in construction
employment by state in the United States. The map was half or less in green,
meaning jobs available, and half or more in red.
The economic outlook for the construction
sector is looking optimistic. In 2012, total construction spending is expected
to grow by 3 to 9 percent. And the future looks even brighter; total
construction is expected to go up by 6 to 10 percent per year in 2013-2017.
On
September 6, Ken Simonson, Chief Economist of the Associated General
Contractors, gave a presentation on the economic outlook for construction at an
event hosted by the National Economist Club. Read the full article…
Posted by at 3:34 PM
Labels: Forecasting Forum, Global Housing Watch
Thursday, July 19, 2012
IMF Says Global Recovery Weak and Vulnerable; Depends on Resolving Euro Area Crisis
An already sluggish global recovery shows signs of further weakness, mainly because of continuing financial problems in Europe and slower-than-expected growth in emerging economies, the IMF said July 16 in a regular update to its World Economic Outlook.
An already sluggish global recovery shows signs of further weakness, mainly because of continuing financial problems in Europe and slower-than-expected growth in emerging economies, the IMF said July 16 in a regular update to its World Economic Outlook.
Posted by at 2:05 PM
Labels: Forecasting Forum
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