Housing View – March 8, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Global home prices set for a gentle climb in a tight market – Reuters poll – Reuters

Working papers and conferences:

  • Built out cities? A new approach to measuring land use regulation – Journal of Housing Economics
  • The interest rate sensitivity of house prices: international evidence on its state dependence – Swiss National Bank
  • The economic impact of UNESCO World Heritage: Evidence from Italy – Regional Science and Urban Economics
  • A Quantitative Model for Mapping the Consequences of Public Housing Demolitions – Philadelphia Fed
  • Housing Cycle and Firm Investment: International Firm-level Evidence – Journal of Asian Economics
  • The Push of Big City Prices and the Pull of Small Town Amenities – SSRN
  • Interpreting the Changing Meaning of the Peri-Urban Holiday House: The Complex and Paradoxical Nature of Housing Financialisation – SSRN
  • Real Estate Commissions and Homebuying – SSRN
  • Residential Mobility and Life Cycle: Identifying the Role of Local Taxes – SSRN
  • Jue Insight: Making Housing Affordable? The Local Effects of Relaxing Land-Use Regulation – SSRN
  • Correlated Labor Market Risk and Housing Investment – SSRN

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • The mortgage ‘lock-in’ effect is here to stay and home prices won’t fall for years to come, research firm says – Business Insider
  • Are Investors and Interest Rates Abolishing the Dream of Homeownership? – CoreLogic
  • US Home Price Insights – CoreLogic
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 6.2% Year-over-year. Austin Prices Down 11.1% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.3% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
  • US home prices to grind higher as cheap mortgage holders stay put: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • Pending home sales drop 4.9% in January – Realtor.com
  • Single-Family Construction Spending Continues to Rise – NAHB
  • High Mortgage Rates Leave Biden Searching for Housing Relief. The president and his team are seeking ways to help Americans afford to rent and buy homes, as high borrowing costs dampen views of the economy. – New York Times
  • US mortgage rates rise for a fourth-straight week, Freddie Mac says – Reuters
  • January Consumption Contracts, While Pending Sales Retreat from Higher Mortgage Rates – Fannie Mae  
  • Mortgage Activity Jumps after Falling for Three Consecutive Weeks – NAHB
  • Assumable Mortgages Offer Some Buyers Affordability – Realtor.com
  • ICE Mortgage Monitor: “First-Time Homebuyers Make Up Record 47% of GSE Purchase Loans” – Calculated Risk 
  • Record number of cash offers show New York property is only for rich. High mortgage rates are creating a void for all but the wealthiest home buyers in the city – FT
  • Single-Family Production Shows Signs of Stirring Across the Nation – NAHB
  • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • Home-Selling Sentiment Moves Higher Ahead of Spring Homebuying Season – Fannie Mae  

On the US—other developments:    

  • Why small developers are getting squeezed out of the housing market – Noapinion
  • How do Young Homebuyers Finance their Downpayments? Their source of funds falls close to home – Home Economics
  • Treasury Department Announces New Efforts to Increase Housing Supply in the United States – US Treasury
  • US Treasury eases rules on unspent COVID aid to boost affordable housing – Reuters 
  • A frozen spring for the US housing market – FT
  • Home-Mortgage Lending Near Two-Decade Low as Slump Continues Across U.S. During Fourth Quarter – ATTOM  
  • Home-Buying Dreams Dashed for Typical US Family Since 2020. Most households can’t afford to buy a home in 2024 market. Affordability plunges as prices and borrowing costs surge – Bloomberg
  • Developers Got Backing for Affordable Housing. Then the Neighborhood Found Out. The push from an affluent community in South Carolina to kill a plan for 60 subsidized apartments brought into public view how hard it is give low-income families access to opportunity-rich neighborhoods. – New York Times
  • Why a White House Plan to Fund Office-to-Housing Conversions Isn’t Working. Citing lengthy delays and red tape, developers have been slow to tap a Biden administration program designed to finance office conversions near transit. – Bloomberg 
  • U.S. Housing Is Too Expensive. Why That’s Good News for Builders. Fitch Ratings says prices in 91% of U.S. metropolitan areas were overvalued in the third quarter of 2023. – Barron’s
  • Housing Supply and Quantity Supplied, Redux – Econlib
  • Can income-restricted ADUs expand the affordable housing stock in Los Angeles? – Brookings
  • How new apartments create opportunities for all. Market-rate rental construction in Minneapolis has freed up more affordable homes for households across the income spectrum – Minneapolis Fed
  • Home Sellers Claim Warren Buffett’s Brokerage Defrauded Them. A division of Mr. Buffett’s conglomerate was added to a string of defendants in an antitrust lawsuit that alleges brokerages inflated commissions that home sellers were forced to pay. – New York Times
  • Southeast Oklahoma partners seek to remove barriers to housing – Kansas City Fed
  • Everything Is Getting Bigger in Texas. Plus: An interview with Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, Minnesota lawmakers try to save Minneapolis zoning reform from excess environmental review, and the White House’s new housing supply action plan. – Reason
  • A Hidden Crisis in Housing – Bloomberg 
  • Black Millennials Are Half As Likely to Own a Home As White Millennials – Redfin
  • Top economist Gary Shilling predicts a ‘considerable revival’ in housing activity—but it’s going to take 3 or 4 years to unfreeze the housing market – Fortune

On China:

  • Chinese Insurers Warn of Debt Risks at Property Giant Vanke. At least two insurers told annuity managers to monitor risks. Vanke in fresh talks with some insurers to extend private debt – Bloomberg
  • Why China’s Property Downturn Has a Silver Lining for Consumption. Some economists argue falling home prices allow families to save less and spend more. But a lack of confidence in growth may be holding back spending. – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Why rising house prices make RBA rate cuts less likely. The latest data from the housing market says supply remains weak, and prices are rising again. That will probably give the RBA a headache. – Financial Review
  • [Australia] The suburbs where prices jumped more than $240k in three months – Financial Review
  • [Australia] Coalition flags expanding super for housing policy amid increase in house prices. Michael Sukkar says policy may need to be revised ahead of next federal election but the ‘broad strokes’ would remain the same – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Why Asian buyers’ love of Australia’s property market endures. Deteriorating affordability has left many Australians struggling in the housing market, but foreign buyers’ interest remains strong. Record migration, China’s housing crisis, Australia’s stability and Asian private wealth’s influence are driving the surge in purchases – South China Morning Post
  • [Australia] Inquiry into Help to Buy scheme hears from economists on risk of higher house prices – The Australian
  • [Australia] The government’s Help to Buy scheme will help but it won’t solve the housing crisis – The Conversation
  • [Canada] Toronto Home Prices Increase for First Time in Seven Months. Sales fell in February and new listings were relatively flat. Lower rates later in 2024 will stoke demand, economist says – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Bank of Canada’s Macklem, ahead of budget, warns against spurring housing demand – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Open House: Cheapest Hong Kong Luxury Housing Comes With a Major Catch. Sea Ranch is a rare example of a property development gone wrong in a city known for its sky-high house prices. Yet the project’s lack of convenience offers potential buyers rare bargains, provided they can put up with the solitude. – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] NZ House Prices Continue Soft Start to Year With Modest Gains – Bloomberg
  • [Norway] Norway house prices rise for second month, defying central bank – The Business Times
  • [Poland] Polish PM Tusk says govt approves 2024 mortgage payment holidays bill – Reuters
  • [Spain] Madrid’s New Arrivals Stir a Toxic Political Stew. Spain’s capital has emerged as a new destination for the global elite – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Stall at a Higher Level Than Before Pandemic – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Tories wrestle with failure to fix Britain’s housing crisis. Mortgages for first-time buyers were at a 10-year low last year – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices post first annual increase in more than a year. Higher than expected rise in February as mortgage rates ease – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals surge to highest level since October 2022. Data suggests residential house market is recovering as squeeze from higher borrowing costs eases – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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