Housing View – March 15, 2024

On cross-country:

  • Why Europe’s housing crisis is taking hold. From Sweden to Spain, via the Netherlands and Greece, inadequate construction rates and excessive tourism have accentuated the housing shortage, while prices remain high. – Le Monde
  • The link between housing affordability and poverty in Europe – LSE

Working papers and conferences:

  • Call for Papers: Workshop on Changing Demographics and Housing Demand: Call for Papers on October 24-25 – Philadelphia Fed
  • 4th Workshop on Rent Control – DIW Berlin
  • The housing channel of intergenerational wealth persistence – CEPR
  • How house prices respond to monetary tightening: The role of cyclical conditions – VoxEU
  • Housing Speculation, GSEs, and Credit Market Spillovers – NBER
  • A Housing Portfolio Channel of QE Transmission – NBER 
  • Measuring Homeownership Sustainability for First-Time Homebuyers – FHFA
  • The Impact of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Policies on Financial Stability, Inequality, and Housing Stock with a High-Resolution, Data-Driven Model – SSRN
  • Forecasting Single Family House Prices in the US using GMDH – SSRN
  • Can Higher Federal Funds Rates Control Mortgage Lending during High Inflation and High House Prices in Absence of Reserve Requirements? – SSRN   

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Mortgage Rates in US Drop for First Time Since Early February. Borrowing costs are a big hurdle for buyers, economist says. New listings are rising in sign that inventory crunch may ease – Bloomberg
  • Mortgage Rates Just Dropped—but the Housing Market Got Even Better News This Week – Realtor.com
  • The “Home ATM” Closed in Q4. Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was low in Q4 – Calculated Risk
  • America’s rental-market mystery. And why it may deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates – The Economist
  • The Only Force Stronger Than Polarization? Rising Home Prices. Checking Zillow is not an ideological activity. – Atlantic Council
  • Lawler: Rent Trends at some Large Holders of Multifamily Properties – Calculated Risk
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Inventory Continues to Surge in Florida – Calculated Risk
  • Housing Continues to Keep Inflation Elevated – NAHB
  • How housing supply is beginning to recover: Redfin CEO – Yahoo Finance

On the US—other developments:    

  • Homebuyers Get More Options as Steep Prices Lure Holdout Sellers. More owners are deciding to list their properties, an early sign that the mortgage ‘lock-in effect’ may be loosening its grip. – Bloomberg
  • FACT SHEET: President Biden Announces Plan to Lower Housing Costs for Working Families – The White House
  • Remarks by National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard on President Biden’s Bold Plan for Housing – The White House
  • Biden’s Plan To Subsidize Homebuyers Won’t Work. The president’s laundry list of proposed tax credits would likely make the problem of high housing costs worse. – Reason
  • Inside Biden’s plan to unlock the housing market’s golden handcuffs – Axios
  • Yellen says Biden’s proposed housing tax credits could boost supply – Reuters
  • Why Biden’s so obsessed with housing policy – Axios
  • Biden’s Budget Includes Several New Housing Proposals – NAHB 
  • To Fix a Housing Crisis, New York Leaders Seek to Revive a 1950s Idea. State Democrats are set to propose a series of ideas to address affordability and a lack of new homes. Some of the ideas are new. And some are very, very old. – New York Times 
  • The Billionaries’ Secret Plan to Solve California’s Housing Crisis – New York Times
  • The Politics of Housing: Owner/Renter Polarization. A partisan chasm is widening – Home Economics
  • Housing Market Update: Supply Ticked Up in February for First Time in 8 Months – Redfin  
  • California, New Jersey and Illinois Still Facing Higher Risk of Housing Market Decline – ATTOM
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Early Reports Suggest Sales will be up from January – Calculated Risk
  • A Rising Tide Lifts All Homes? Housing Consumption Trends for Low-Income Households Since the 1980s – Minneapolis Fed
  • Opinion: Inflation isn’t the real problem for the U.S. economy. The housing shortage is – Los Angeles Times
  • U.S. Foreclosure Activity Continues to See an Annual Increase – ATTOM
  • Examining Differences between Homeowner and Renter Wealth – NAHB
  • Unleashing Manufactured Housing. The United States presently has an estimated shortage of 3–5 million housing units. – Cato Institute
  • Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO. REO: lender Real Estate Owned – Calculated Risk
  • Survey: Buyers and Owners Cite Concern Over Climate and Natural Disaster Risks – Realtor.com
  • American dream of owning a home is dead, majority of renters say. Exclusive: most renters surveyed by Harris Poll say the areas they live in have become so unaffordable they are ‘barely livable’ – The Guardian
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024 – Calculated Risk
  • Where Are the Most Expensive US Places for Property Taxes? – CoreLogic
  • Climate Risks Threaten Nearly Half of All Homes in the U.S.: What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know – Realtor.com

On China:

  • Shanghai housing market’s downwards trend to continue amid low demand and expectations of further price declines, brokers say. Owners selling homes will have to offer discounts of 5 to 10 per cent to make sales: brokers. ‘Most customers are just taking a wait-and-see approach,’ sales manager at property agency 5I5J says – South China Morning Post
  • China ready to let some troubled property firms go bust: housing minister. Ni Hong says authorities have the arduous task of stabilising the crisis-hit real estate industry this year. Companies that are insolvent or can’t operate must fold or be restructured, Ni says – South China Morning Post
  • China’s housing minister says real estate developers must go bankrupt if necessary – CNBC
  • Moody’s Downgrades Major Chinese Property Developer Vanke. Moody’s has downgraded one of China’s largest housing developers’ credit rating, as woes in the country’s property sector show no sign of abating. – AFP
  • Rising mortgage defaults bring more pain to Chinese households – Reuters

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] First home buyers tapping super could drive up house prices – AFR
  • [Australia] The ‘good old days’ for housing affordability were just four years ago – here’s why. But those days of 2020 are good only relative to now, and that’s a rather horrific thought – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Sydney Faces Growing Pains as Its Housing Crisis Deepens. A New South Wales state plan to build apartments around Sydney train stations has run into local opposition. – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Trudeau Eyes Boost to Canada’s Housing Supply With New Budget – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong property agents expect more big-ticket foreclosures this year – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Ending cooling measures no game changer for Hong Kong property market. The end of more than a decade of cooling measures for Hong Kong’s property market is welcome and has sparked a surge in new home sales. These changes must be put in proper context, though, as several other factors will be more consequential in setting the property sector’s course – South China Morning Post
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Apartment Glut Is Set to Keep Prices Down After Tax Cut. Market must absorb inventory before values recover, agents say. Competition also likely to stifle prices even as sales rebound – Bloomberg
  • [India] India’s housing market remains upbeat – Global Property Guide
  • [Indonesia] Indonesia’s housing market remains stable – Global Property Guide
  • [Ireland] The Irish Times view on housing supply: some progress on building new homes. While pointing to the acceleration in construction, Ministers also need to recognise the distance still to be travelled – The Irish Times
  • [Spanish] Spanish house price growth bucks general eurozone trend. Despite a decline in the fourth quarter of 2023, Spanish house prices grew by an average of 4.2% over the full year. Spain goes against the trend of many eurozone countries where average house price growth was negative last year due to rising interest rates – ING
  • [South Korea] South Korea’s land minister bearish on property as population ages – Reuters
  • [Sweden] Swedish Home Prices Edge Up in Sign Recovery May Be Nearing – Bloomberg
  • [United Arab Emirates] United Arab Emirates Residential Property Price Report: February 2024 – REIDIN
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices near 2022 peak after fifth monthly rise in a row. Halifax says prices grew by 1.7% on an annual basis with the average UK house now costing £291,699 – FT 
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Rise for a Fifth Month, Halifax Says. 0.4% gain in February leaves home values 1.7% higher on year. But Halifax warns of possible slowdown later in the year – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Housing Market Achieves ‘Soft Landing’ as Prices Stabilize. RICS survey sees three-year high for properties on sale. New buyer inquiries positive for a second consecutive month – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK housing market strengthens in February, RICS survey shows – Reuters  

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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