Housing View – June 30, 2023

On cross-country:

  • The housing supply problem. A four-part series on housing affordability in the UK and US – FT
  • The Global Housing Inspection Report – 2023 Edition – Seeking Alpha
  • How to reduce the damage done by gentrification. We cannot let our cities descend into islands of privilege amid seas of disadvantage. With the right policies and investments, a better future is possible – The Guardian

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • The 30-Year Mortgage Is Saving the US Economy … or Is It? Long-term fixed-rate home loans help keep the housing market from collapse, but they make the overall economy less dynamic. – Bloomberg
  • Higher Interest Rates Hit Home Prices Again. U.S. existing-home prices fell in May from a year earlier by the most in more than 11 years – Wall Street Journal
  • Fraudulent Covid Aid Drove Up U.S. House Prices, Report Says. Researchers found that people who defrauded the government for pandemic relief poured money into housing markets, driving inflation in some areas – Wall Street Journal
  • Small Mortgages Are Too Hard to Get. A shortage of loans for homes priced below $150,000 bars many American families from homeownership – Pew Charitable Trusts
  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Decreased 0.2% year-over-year in April. “U.S. house prices rose in April, up 0.7 percent from March, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (HPI®).” – Calculated Risk
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.8% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 8.4% below recent peak – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

  • What Is Happening in the Housing Market? Home construction surged in May and prices have ticked up, even with interest rates at a 15-year high. The resilience has surprised some economists. – New York Times
  • Only Zoning Reform Can Solve America’s Housing Crisis. By making it impossible to build enough homes in places where people want to live, local governments hurt the economy and democracy. – Wall Street Journal
  • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May – Calculated Risk
  • Home Builders Learn to Love High Rates. Low supply of homes is giving builders ample reason to step up construction, despite high interest rates – Wall Street Journal
  • Buying a home in the US is expensive – and that isn’t changing anytime soon. Even if there are fewer home buyers and prices have been falling slightly, they’re still much higher than pre-pandemic and for many, more unaffordable than ever – The Guardian
  • US existing home sales edge up but prices drop by most since 2011 – Reuters
  • Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in May: Single Family Declined, Multi-Family Increased – Calculated Risk
  • New Home Sales increase to 763,000 Annual Rate in May. Median New Home Price is Down 16.2% from the Peak – Calculated Risk

On China:

  • How to escape China’s property crisis. Lessons from a city that is flourishing – The Economist

On other countries:  

  • [Germany] German house prices fall by record 6.8% as higher mortgage costs deter buyers. First-quarter drop in Europe’s largest property market is biggest since index began in 2000 – FT
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong may relax mortgage loan-to-value ratios amid sluggish property market: Financial Secretary Paul Chan. The government, along with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, will balance financial stability and the interests of first-time buyers, Paul Chan says. Chan’s comments come as Hong Kong’s residential market is showing fresh signs of weakness after a short-lived rebound in the first quarter – South China Morning Post
  • [Ireland] Irish Home Prices Post First Year-on-Year Decline Since 2020. Average prices slip 0.5% in the second quarter from a year ago. Once-hot market still on edge after quarterly gain of 2.4% – Bloomberg   
  • [Ireland] Strong Irish mortgage market unmoved by higher interest rates – Reuters
  • [Turkey] Turkish property prices are soaring. A crazy interest-rate policy is mostly to blame – The Economist
  • [United Kingdom] The Bank of England Owes Mortgage Payers a Big Apology. UK living standards are being hit by 8.7% CPI and 6% mortgage rates. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] The Guardian view on mortgages: the crunch is coming. Westminster is forever blowing property bubbles. What happens when they burst? – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Making downsizing easier could help Britain’s housing crisis. Shuffling the pack by liberating under-occupied homes will have a bigger impact than building new ones – FT
  • [United Kingdom] The UK mortgage market may need an overhaul, not handouts. There need to be longer-term questions about the peculiarities of housing borrowing in Britain – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Young adults pay heaviest price for Britain’s exploding mortgage timebomb. Rising interest rates expose widening generational gulf, with millennials facing large increases in monthly payments – FT 
  • [United Kingdom] Have We Reached the Tipping Point for UK House Prices? As mortgage rates rise, the most vulnerable areas are also the most expensive. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Why higher rates risk reigniting intergenerational conflict. A cohort of people in their mid-30s have probably been pummelled twice by monetary policy over the past decade – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Cut Stamp Duty to fight inflation and expand housing supply. – IEA

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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