Housing View – May 19, 2023

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • A problem for the housing market: People won’t quit their cheap mortgages. Fewer homes are available because homeowners are hanging onto coveted rates of 3 or 4 percent – Washington Post
  • The Great Pandemic Mortgage Refinance Boom – New York Fed
  • First-Time Buyers Did Not Drive Strong House Price Appreciation in 2021 – New York Fed
  • Year-over-Year Decline for Single-Family Permits in March 2023 – NAHB
  • US Housing Starts Rise in Sign Home Construction Is Stabilizing. Beginning construction rose 2.2% in April to 1.4 million rate. Gain in one-family homebuilding due to surge in West region – Bloomberg

On the US—other developments:    

  • US cities must beware the ‘donut effect’. Many of America’s urban centres are struggling to lure workers back post-pandemic, but the suburbs are thriving – FT
  • Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations – NBER
  • Income Gains and the Geography of the US Home Ownership Boom, 1940 to 1960 – NBER
  • A debt ceiling default would send the U.S. housing market back into a deep freeze. A debt default is very unlikely, but new scenario projections from Zillow show sales would decrease sharply as mortgage costs balloon – Zillow
  • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April – Calculated Risk
  • The US city where ‘desert palaces’ are sprouting as affordable homes dwindle – The Guardian
  • The Fed Hiked Rates and Housing Is as Broken as Ever. The weird housing market gets weirder. – Bloomberg
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
  • Coastal Cities Priced Out Low-Wage Workers. Now College Graduates Are Leaving, Too. – New York Times
  • Economists Hate Rent Control. Here’s Why They’re Wrong. Half of Americans, namely homeowners, already have rent control. It’s time to expand it to everyone. – The American Prospect
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April. Distribution of Interest Rates on First-Liens Mortgages Outstanding – Calculated Risk
  • April Housing Starts: Near Record Multi-Family Under Construction. Housing Starts at 1.401 million Annual Rate in April Calculated Risk
  • 4th Look at Local Markets in April. Expect the NAR to Report Sales of around 4.33 million for April – Calculated Risk
  • Seven of 10 Riskiest US Climate Locations Are Appreciating Faster than National Rate. Exploring climate change risks on the housing market with CoreLogic Climate Risk Analytics as a guide – CoreLogic
  • NAHB Debuts New Index for Multifamily Activity – NAHB
  • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.28 million SAAR in April; Median Prices Declined 1.7% YoY. Record Low for Not Seasonally Adjusted Sales in April – Calculated Risk

On China:

  • China Housing Rebound Fizzling Shows Risks to Economic Recovery. High-frequency data suggests a short-lived housing recovery. Waning property recovery may limit China’s growth this year – Bloomberg
  •  China’s Home-Price Growth Slows as Housing Rebound Fizzles. Prices of new homes rose 0.32% in April, slowing from 0.44%. Adds to signs that the property recovery is weakening – Bloomberg
  • China’s developers keep their investment powder dry even as home sales improved in the first 4 months of 2023 – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Going halves: are shared equity schemes the answer in Australia’s pricey property market? – The Guardian
  • [Australia] The great divide: even if millennials could afford a home, there aren’t enough to buy. The affordability gulf between Australia’s generations is due to demographic luck and policy decisions. But the crux of the problem is supply – The Guardian
  • [Austria] Vienna Becomes Epicenter of Europe’s Housing Woes. Bloomberg’s housing tracker shows the Austrian capital is showing some of the steepest declines in Europe – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canada housing market upturn could delay shift to BoC rate cuts – Reuters
  • [Korea] S. Korean house prices fall in April for 11th straight month – Reuters
  • [Turkey] Istanbul Gets Caught Between Housing Crunch and Earthquake Risk. Soaring housing prices and political squabbling in Turkey’s largest city are hampering efforts to rebuild unstable homes. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Renters’ reform must close loopholes for unfair evictions, campaigners say. Experts warn Michael Gove lack of detail would allow landlords to circumvent legal overhaul – The Guardian

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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