Housing View – May 12, 2023

On cross-country:

  • The Right Tool for the Job? Mortgage Distress and Personal Insolvency during the European Debt Crisis – IMF
  • A Recession Is Coming, But the Housing Market Won’t Trigger It – Bloomberg
  • Global Luxury Home Prices Fall for First Time Since 2009. New Zealand leads drop, while Dubai bucks the trend with a 44% surge. – Bloomberg

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Will Affordable Mortgages Ever Return? – Zillow
  • New Home Listings Plunge 21% With Higher Rates Spooking Sellers. With borrowing costs up, many homeowners are ‘locked in’ at lower levels and hesitant to list their properties. – Bloomberg
  • Have Home Prices and Mortgage Rates Both Peaked? A Hopeful Look Ahead – Realtor.com
  • Mortgage Rates in the US Tick Down, Sending 30-Year to 6.39% – Bloomberg   
  • House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability – Calculated Risk
  • Home Prices Fell in Third of the U.S. During First Quarter. Prices drop in more parts of the U.S. than they have in over a decade – Wall Street Journal
  • Mortgage Activity Increases Despite Affordability Issues – NAHB
  • The Home Buyer’s Quandary: Nobody’s Selling. Many are ready to move but don’t want to lose the low-rate mortgages they locked in a few years ago, crimping the supply of homes and keeping prices high – Wall Street Journal

On the US—other developments:    

  • Constraints on City and Neighborhood Growth: The Central Role of Housing Supply – Journal of Economic Perspectives
  • How the Fed’s rate hikes helped drive up mortgage payments. Mortgage payments rise based on a number of reasons, but a big factor is that the Fed has raised interest rates 10 times since March 2022. – Politico
  • Early Look at Local Housing Markets in April. Early Reporting Markets Suggest Sales Down More YoY in April than in March – Calculated Risk
  • Record US construction jobs are fueling housing market recovery hopes. Construction employment remains resilient despite a decline in new housing projects – Quartz
  • Your Homeowners’ Insurance Bill Is the Canary in the Climate Coal Mine – New York Times
  • Lawler: American Homes 4 Rent Net Seller of Single-Family Homes Last Quarter. Rent Growth Slowed but Remained Elevated – Calculated Risk
  • How to Make Housing Less Affordable. An Energy rule for manufactured homes will hit low earners. – Wall Street Journal
  • Understanding the Effects of U.S. Home Price Shocks on Household Consumption and Output – Philadelphia Fed
  • House prices have spiked and well-priced rentals are increasingly hard to come by. How has the dream of an affordable home become so hard to reach? – The Guardian
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April – Calculated Risk
  • Housing and rent prices with Paul Willen – Boston Fed
  • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April – Calculated Risk

On China:

  • Why China Doesn’t Have a Property Tax. Local governments are sinking further into debt, but after years of talk, officials have yet to introduce a real estate tax. – New York Times

On other countries:  

  • [France] Land-use regulation and housing supply elasticity: evidence from France – IDEAS
  • [Ireland] Ireland Weighs Mortgage Relief to Help Ease Pain from Rate Hikes. Varadkar says relief to be considered as part of budget. Finance Minister has warned of mortgage arrears risk – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices drop again but still out of reach for first-time buyers. Increases in interest rates and living costs mean buying a home remains unaffordable for many people – The Guardian
  • [Portugal] Golden Visa Felled by Hot Lisbon Property Market It Helped Spark – Bloomberg
  • [Singapore] Singapore’s Soaring Rents Are Becoming a Political Problem. Hot housing market adds pressure on ruling party ahead of vote. Young singles shut out of popular subsidized housing program – Bloomberg
  • [Spain] Spain Weighs Tighter Golden Visa Rules for Real Estate Investors – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Housebuilders’ shares rally as fears of drop in UK homes prices fade. Biggest developers report improving sales and prices holding steady in spring selling season – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals beat forecasts to hit five-month high. Figures for March suggest the property market is stabilising after months of volatility – FT 
  • [United Kingdom] For housing to be affordable, prices must go down, not up. Here’s how it could happen. Labor’s housing policies risk being as ineffectual as the Coalition’s. The real solutions aren’t complicated – but they need political will – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Will 100% Mortgages Revive UK House Prices? Comparisons with 2008 are wide of the mark. But lenders are clearly still keen to write new business. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] British home-buyers, facing higher interest rates, retreat in April – RICS – Reuters

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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