Housing View – March 3, 2023

On cross-country:

  • Threat of global housing slide looms amid rising rates – Dallas Fed
  • ‘The risk of a deep housing slide persists’: Dallas Fed says downturn in U.S. and German housing markets could affect the rest of the world – Market Watch  
  • How low will house prices go? Lessons from UK, US, Europe and elsewhere – The Guardian

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • U.S. mortgage interest rates jump to highest level since November – MBA – Reuters
  • US to Cut Mortgage Insurance Costs for Some New Homeowners. Program seeks to ease soaring borrowing costs that hurt demand. Vice President Harris to announce the program on Wednesday – Bloomberg
  • Mortgage applications plummet as rates jump – Axios  
  • That 3% Mortgage Just Keeps Getting Better. As the Fed pushes interest rates higher, homeowners who secured ultra-cheap loans during the pandemic can invest in low-risk Treasuries that earn enough to significantly offset the cost of their homes. – Bloomberg
  • Measures of Shelter in the CPI and PCE price indexes Still Increasing – Calculated Risk
  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index “Decline Continued” to 5.8% year-over-year increase in December – Calculated Risk
  • Freddie Mac House Price Index Declines for 7th Consecutive Month in January. 37 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted – Calculated Risk
  • U.S. house price inflation cools further in December – Reuters
  • A Tight Labor Market Could Keep Rent Inflation Elevated – Kansas City Fed
  • Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate. Expect YoY Rents to Slow Further – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

  • America’s property market suggests recession is on the way. As developers find clever ways to cut mortgage rates, the Fed may fight back – The Economist
  • Checking in on the U.S. Housing Market. Activity is normalizing along with rates. Builders’ prudence on hiring during the boomlet is now shielding the job market. – The Overshoot
  • Will US Housing Crash The Economy? Maybe it’s different this time. – Bloomberg
  • How homebuilders are luring buyers back – Axios
  • New Home Sales Increase to 670,000 Annual Rate in January – NAHB
  • New Home Sales Up in January but Higher Rates Signal Further Weakness – NAHB
  • Lawler: AMH Net Seller of Existing Single-Family Homes, “Investor” Home Purchases Plunged – Calculated Risk
  • America’s Housing Market Has Flipped But Not Flopped. A dearth of supply of existing homes is leading to a boom in building, despite sky-high mortgage rates. – Bloomberg
  • U.S. pending home sales post largest gain in 2-1/2 years in January – Reuters
  • The frozen housing market. And what it means for the economy – FT
  • The Age Gap in Mortgage Access – Philadelphia Fed
  • Financial Benefits Motivated Homebuying During the Pandemic, More So Than Space or Location Preferences – Fannie Mae
  • How Is Digitalization Transforming How People Find and Finance Housing? – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Private Residential Spending Falls Slightly in January – NAHB

On other countries:  

  • [Germany] Germany home prices to sink nearly 6% this year – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices end seven-month decline with 0.6% rise in January – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] Rising UK Rents Will Cushion Any Drop in House Prices. The cost to society of a dysfunctional housing market, as young aspiring buyers are thwarted while landlords saving for retirement are penalized, is rising. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK’s Soaring Mortgage Costs Mean It’s Cheaper to Rent a Home. Capital Economics says average mortgage tops £1,000 a month. Renting probably will become more expensive next year – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] England’s new housing supply likely to fall to lowest level in decades, study says. Home Builders Federation warns planning policy changes will result in government meeting less than half its annual target – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] House building set to slump in England, warns trade body. Number of new properties completed each year could fall to 110,000 says Home Builders Federation – FT  
  • [United Kingdom] Three years on: how the pandemic reshaped the UK housing market – Lloyds Banking Group
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices suffer biggest fall in more than a decade as higher interest rates bite. Nationwide figures show a greater than expected 1.1% drop in year to February – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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