Housing View – March 10, 2023

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • U.S. home prices to fall 4.5% in 2023 despite higher rates: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak. Price-to-rent index is 7.1% below recent peak – Calculated Risk
  • Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Declined in January, “on pace to fall below 0% by March/April”. Home Prices Off 5.5% from Peak NSA, Prices up 3.4% Y – Calculated Risk
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February. Closed Sales: 18th consecutive month with a YoY decline – Calculated Risk
  • Sorry, Fed, Most US Mortgage Rates Were Locked In During Pandemic Lows – Bloomberg
  • Mortgage Activity Increases Despite Mortgage Rate Volatility – NAHB
  • House Prices and Rents in the 21st Century – Boston Fed
  • Boston Advances Rent-Control Measure as Costs Climb. State must sign off on mayor’s plan to combat surging housing costs – Wall Street Journal


On the US—other developments:    

  • In Most US Cities, Homes Still Sell Faster Than Before the Pandemic – Bloomberg
  • Black-White Homeownership Gap Widened During Pandemic – Wall Street Journal
  • Everything you think you know about homelessness is wrong – Noahpinion
  • Yes, There’s a Housing Crisis. No, You Can’t Build Here. A modest redevelopment proposal meets Nimby resistance in my ‘quirky’ suburban Virginia neighborhood. – Wall Street Journal
  • Foreign Buyers, Who Nearly Disappeared During Covid, Finally Return to the U.S. Housing Market. Real-estate agents say they’ve seen an acceleration in purchases by overseas buyers amid looser Covid restrictions and political-economic shifts abroad – Wall Street Journal
  • Americans Need to Be Richer Than Ever to Buy Their First Home. The pandemic boom has given way to higher mortgage rates and tight inventory, further squeezing entry-level house hunters. – Bloomberg 
  • Housing Market Momentum Stalls as Critical Spring Season Approaches. Rising interest rates squeeze affordability, drive mortgage applications to lowest levels in decades – Bloomberg
  • Housing Market Momentum Stalls as Critical Spring Season Approaches. Rising interest rates squeeze affordability, drive mortgage applications to lowest levels in decades – Wall Street Journal
  • Is Spring the Make-or-Break Moment for 2023’s Housing Market? A Brutally Honest Look Ahead for Buyers, Sellers – Realtor.com
  • Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I. The Economic Fireworks have been in Housing! – Calculated Risk
  • Single-Family Market Share Continues to Shift from Large Population Centers – NAHB 
  • Housing Sentiment Returns to Near-Survey Low Amid Affordability Constraints and Job Security Concerns. Both Homebuyers and Home-Sellers Express Caution About Current Market Conditions – Fannie Mae
  • Cost of Constructing a Home in 2022 – NAHB
  • Housing Advocates Urge Congress to Enact Tax Policies for New Homebuyers – Reuters  


On China:

  • China’s Property Recovery Is Held Back by Hesitant Buyers. Second-hand home viewings have jumped 86% in big cities. Weakening expectations over housing prices remains overhang – Bloomberg
  • China to guard against risks among property developers – Premier Li – Reuters
  • China to Target ‘Unregulated’ Expansion in Property Market. Premier Li calls for risk prevention in major developers. China sets modest growth target as economic headwinds persist – Bloomberg
  • Property Shares Fall After China Targets ‘Unregulated’ Expansion. Premier Li calls for risk prevention in major developers. China sets modest growth target as economic headwinds persist – Bloomberg
  • Land Supply and House Prices in China – Applied Economics Letters


On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Is the auction market causing a false dawn for property prices? – The Sydney Morning Herald
  • [India] India housing market to remain resilient despite higher interest rates: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • [Singapore] Will Singapore’s housing supply rise amid rising interest rates, recession fears and tightening wallets? Supply has dropped since 2018, and rental market is expected to remain tight despite about 30,000 potential completions forecast for the next two years. Singapore developers are still grappling with high costs, shortage of labour thanks to the upheavals in supply chains caused by pandemic, analysts note – South China Morning Post
  • [Sweden] Sweden Housing Market Takes a Break From Worst Rout in Years. Apartment prices rise for the first time since March 2022. Sales volumes continue to be subdued, Maklarstatistik says – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Falling house prices may seem like a good thing – but it’s renters who are paying the price. With first-time buyers unable to get a mortgage and landlords hiking up rents, it’s a vicious cycle – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices bounce unexpectedly in February: Halifax – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] Are UK House Prices Rebounding Already? The latest Halifax data is much more upbeat than we’ve grown used to in recent months. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices slide further but market pessimism eases: RICS – Reuters

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch

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