Housing View – December 23, 2022

On cross-country:

  • Conference: Alternative technics on housing and construction during Covid – REFINE

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Mortgage Buydowns Are Making a Comeback. Soaring rates have revived interest in a product that fell out of favor after the financial crisis – Wall Street Journal
  • Higher mortgage rates depress U.S. single-family housing starts, building permits – Reuters
  • Single-Family Permits Continues On A Downward Trend in October 2022 – NAHB
  • US Housing Starts, Permits Fall on Slide in Single-Family Homes. Total new construction slips 0.5%, marking third-straight drop. Permit applications for one-family homes lowest since May 2020 – Bloomberg
  • In US housing market, homebuilders are wary of starting new projects. Permits to build new houses fell by double digits in November. – Quartz
  • Prepare for US house prices to slump, unemployment to spike, and a recession to set in, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff says – Markets Insider
  • The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices – Calculated Risk
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November. “Median home prices in the Austin-Round Rock MSA experienced a 0% year over year increase” – Calculated Risk
  • 10 facts about U.S. renters during the pandemic – Pew Research Center
  • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November. Another Step Down for Sales in November – Calculated Risk
  • 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November; California Sales off 48% YoY. Another step down in sales in November – Calculated Risk 
  • Existing Home Sales Decline Further in November – NAHB
  • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.09 million SAAR in November. Median Prices Down 10.4% from Peak in June 2022 – Calculated Risk 
  • Existing-Home Sales Dipped 7.7% in November – NAR

On the US—other developments:    

  • Why This Housing Downturn Isn’t Like the Last One. A postcrisis mortgage-market makeover and an overhaul of the financial system make a repeat of 2008 unlikely – Wall Street Journal
  • Homing in on a Housing Recovery. After a miserable year for housing, some reasons for optimism – Wall Street Journal
  • The Push of Big City Prices and the Pull of Small Town Amenities – Philadelphia Fed
  • Where Are the Most and Least Affordable Homes? A new study compares median home prices against household income, property taxes and mortgage expenses to determine affordability. – New York Times
  • Americans Want More Affordable Housing — Just Not Nearby – Five Thirty Eight
  • The Size of the Housing Shortage: 2021 Data – NAHB
  • In the US, Owning a Home May Not Lead to a Better Life – Insead
  • Biden Administration Calls for 25% Cut in Homelessness by 2025. The Biden administration’s new strategic plan to address homelessness includes a focus on equity and a promise to help cities build more housing. – Bloomberg
  • America’s Housing Shortage Crisis, in Two Maps. Chronic NIMBYism has left America’s population centers without enough places to live. – Bloomberg 
  • The Homeownership Society Was a Mistake. Real estate should be treated as consumption, not investment. – The Atlantic
  • Housing Sentiment in the Fourth Quarter of 2022 – Freddie Mac  
  • Nine Percent of New Homes Are Teardowns – NAHB
  • Eviction and Poverty in American Cities – Philadelphia Fed
  • Evictions in New England and the Impact of Public Policy during the COVID-19 Pandemic – Boston Fed

On China:

  • China mulls new measures to support real estate sector – vice premier – Reuters
  • China To Correct Past ‘Mistaken’ Housing Policies: Top Economist. Government is changing tone on the property sector: Yao Yang. 2021 policies to curb the sector were ‘mistaken,’ he says – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] The Stench of Failure: How Perception Affects House Prices – NBER
  • [Australia] Australia’s housing crisis, largely hidden, is getting worse – Reuters
  • [Canada] Cities have to expand for house prices to fall – New Geography
  • [Israel] House prices keep soaring, marking record 20.3% rise in a year. Dramatic figure comes as other inflationary pressures ease, with consumer prices rising more slowly – The Times of Israel
  • [Sweden] Sweden’s Housing Market Seeks Bottom as Price Drop Continues. HOX index shows decline continued for eighth month in a row. Price drop of 15% from the peak also seen in other recent data – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] How UK House Prices Could Fall by 30%. There’s plenty of precedent for a steep decline in ‘real’ values. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices expected to fall by 8% next year, says Halifax. Lender says market rebalancing after years of growth, as mortgage rates and cost of living push prices down – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Debt charities warn over surging mortgage costs for millions of borrowers. Concerns mount after Bank of England increases interest rates to 3.5 per cent – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK mortgage guarantee scheme extended by a year. Ministers delay closure to help first-time buyers facing high interest rates and fewer borrowing options – FT
  • [United Kingdom] House prices in central London fell by a quarter over five years. Expensive areas, hardest hit in real terms, will feel the effects of high mortgage rates in 2023 – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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