Housing View – December 2, 2022

On cross-country:

  • OECD Analytical House Price database: December update – OECD

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index “Continued to Decline” to 10.6% year-over-year increase in September. FHFA: Third quarter “House prices were up 0.1 percent compared to the second quarter of 2022.” – Calculated Risk
  • Home Prices Continue to Decline in September – NAHB  
  • U.S. house annual prices slow again in September – Reuters
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.3% Below Peak. House Price-to-Rent Ratio Declines to 4.7% Below Peak – Calculated Risk  
  • U.S. Government to Backstop Mortgages Above $1 Million in High-Cost Areas. Highest limit applies to most expensive regions; level also set to rise in rest of the country, reflecting increased home prices – Wall Street Journal
  • U.S. to Back $1 Million Mortgages. Affordability Is Still an Issue. – Barron’s
  • Home Buyers Could Soon Get $1 Million Mortgage With 3% Down Payment. Higher limits for federally backed mortgages will give buyers more flexibility in their house hunts – Wall Street Journal
  • Rents Falling Faster than “Seasonality Alone”. Expect YoY Rents to Slow Further in Coming Months – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

  • As Mortgage Rates Rise, More People Choose to Rent Single-Family Homes. In response, major builders and developers are getting into the business, which was once dominated by mom-and-pop outfits – Wall Street Journal
  • The Short- and Long- Run Effects of Remote Work on U.S. Housing Markets – University of California
  • Rising Inventory Will Be the Housing Market’s Next Problem – Bloomberg
  • US Housing Enters Deep Freeze With Sellers and Buyers Sidelined. Agents struggle to find listings as deals decline, mortgage rates remain high and signs point to leaner times ahead. – Bloomberg 
  • FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $726,200. High-Cost Areas increase to $1,089,300 – Calculated Risk
  • Activist House Flippers Take On Wall Street to Keep Homes From Investors. Housing groups try to counter rental conversions and help lower-income residents achieve homeownership – Wall Street Journal
  • Abundant Policy Options Available to Improve Housing Affordability for Families – Cato
  • In Tough Housing Market, Renters Renovate Like They Own the Place. Priced out of the home market, many renters are splurging on new fixtures, wallpaper and other upgrades – Wall Street Journal
  • The Fed and Measures of House Prices – American Action Forum  

On China:

  • China Is Finally Trying to Fix Its Housing Crisis. After a year on the sidelines, Beijing this week took steps to get hundreds of billions of dollars into the hands of the country’s flailing real estate developers. – New York Times
  • China property bailouts leave most out in the cold – Reuters

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australia house prices forecast to slump 16% from peak – Reuters
  • [Australia] Why mortgage stress is on the rise – Financial Review
  • [Greece] Greek residential property price recovery picks up in third quarter – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Oct home prices drop 2.4%, biggest fall in 4 years – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Property Slump Reaches City’s Coveted Luxury Homes. Luxury sales at lowest in 9 years with prices to fall further. Even clients with cash on hand adopt wait-and-see mindset – Bloomberg 
  • [India] Home loans remain healthy for India’s banks, NBFCs amid rising rates – S&P Global
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Suffer Biggest Annual Drop in 13 Years – Bloomberg
  • [South Korea] Korean House Prices Drop by Most Since 2013 as Credit Woes Mount. Policy makers seek to prevent hard landing in property market. Market correction likely to deepen as pessimism rises: survey – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Riksbank Sees Deeper Home Price Fall in Sweden as Rates Rise. Nordic country’s housing prices now seen falling by a fifth. Sweden is among the bellwethers of the global property slump – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] High mortgage rates push UK first-time buyers towards rental market – Rightmove – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] UK housing market seen facing further ‘mini-budget’ fallout – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] UK homeowners forced to settle for below asking price, Zoopla says. Property website data shows housing market is slowing, with 44% less demand for homes and sellers accepting 3% below asking price – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK mortgage approvals drop more than expected as borrowing costs rise. Repayment rates increase as buyers contend with soaring inflation and higher interest rates – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Student housing is the bubble that won’t burst. Budget squeezes are no match for a sector with a structural supply shortfall – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall at fastest pace since June 2020. Drop of 1.4% in November comes as rising borrowing costs weigh on sentiment, says Nationwide – FT 

Posted by at 1:04 PM

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