Housing View – November 25, 2022

On cross-country:

  • Where the coming housing crunch will be most painful. Global property’s goody-two-shoes are in trouble – The Economist
  • ‘Mortgage Dominance’ – Bloomberg

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • U.S. housing starts tumble in October amid soaring mortgage rates – Reuters
  • US Housing Starts Drop With Pullback in Single-Family Projects. New homebuilding declined 4.2% last month to 1.43 million pace. Single-family starts, permits fell to lowest since May 2020 – Bloomberg
  • U.S. housing faces longer descent to basement – Reuters

On the US—other developments:    

  • Have We Been Measuring Housing Inflation All Wrong? – Washington Post
  • New Construction and Housing Affordability – Cato Institute
  • U.S. existing home sales plunge; tight inventory keeps prices rising – Reuters
  • The Remote Work Revolution: Impact on Real Estate Values and the Urban Environment – NBER
  • Passing Along Housing Wealth from Parents to Children – San Francisco Fed
  • Housing Industry Braces for a Downturn, but Investors Are Piling In. Beaten-down shares get a boost from reports of softening inflation – Wall Street Journal  
  • House Price Growth and Inflation During COVID-19 – Fed
  • Are new housing policy reforms working? We need better research to find out. – Brookings
  • ‘Dynastic’ Home Equity Affects U.S. Homeownership Levels – Wall Street Journal
  • The U.S. Needs More Housing Than Almost Anyone Can Imagine. For Americans to live a productive, prosperous, happy life, homes need to be truly abundant. – The Atlantic 
  • Housing Breaks People’s Brains. Supply skepticism and shortage denialism are pushing against the actual solution to the housing crisis: building enough homes. – The Atlantic
  • The Case for Building More Housing – The Atlantic
  • Housing Supply and Property Taxes – Cato 
  • Investor Home Purchases Drop 30% as Rising Rates, High Prices Cool Housing Market. Buying activity by companies fell in line with the decline in overall home sales amid higher borrowing costs – Wall Street Journal
  • Housing Shortage Reflects the Cheap Cost of Holding Vacant Land. High taxes on buildings and low taxes on land discourage landowners from development – Wall Street Journal
  • Turkish Developer in Tie-Up to Invest $2.2 Billion in US Housing. Nef, Workforce Housing to build 10,000 units over five years. Joint venture to invest in Miami, Austin, New York and LA – Bloomberg
  • How Fed Policies Burn Housing. Today on TAP: Higher interest rates raise housing costs to consumers in multiple ways—the opposite of the Fed’s anti-inflation goals. – The American Prospect

On China:

  • China’s property prices to rise in 2023, sales to fall more slowly: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • Reluctant buyers pose main threat to Beijing’s property revival efforts – Reuters
  • Economist Who Called China’s Housing Slump Sees Slow Recovery. Nomura’s Lu Ting says China’s ‘Volcker moment’ is finally over. Recovery in housing market is still some distance away – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

  • [Canada] How Bad Will Housing Get? The Chill Gripping a Once-Hot Market Offers a Test. As Canadians struggle with soaring interest rates, the next few months hold clues on whether there will be a surge in forced sellers. – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts – Reuters
  • [Germany] German residential property market faces risk of price drop – DIW study – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Citibank expects Hong Kong property prices to fall another 10 per cent, bottom out in second quarter of 2023 – South China Morning Post
  • [Hungary] EU’s Hottest Property Market Cools as 18% Key Rate Hits Lending. Real estate transactions, mortgage lending plunge in Hungary. Hungarian housing prices grew at fastest pace in EU since 2015 – Bloomberg
  • [Ireland] Ireland’s millionaire homeowners belie a stark inequality gulf. Housing supply shortages, the cost of living crisis and the prospect of tech lay-offs are squeezing the next generation – FT
  • [Mexico] An Approach for Housing Wealth Estimation: The Mexican Case – Central Bank of Mexico
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand, particularly vulnerable to a housing crash, tightens its belt as rates soar. New Zealand’s reserve bank delivered its largest rate hike in history on Wednesday, piling pressure on the country’s homeowners – The Guardian
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices forecast to drop 18% from peak – Reuters
  • [Spain] Spain approves mortgage support for more than 1 mln households – Reuters
  • [Spain] Spain approves mortgage relief plan. Cabinet authorises moves that include lowering borrowing costs over five years to help offset higher interest rates – FT
  • [Sweden] Soaring Power Costs Are Sending Swedish House Prices Lower – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedish Housing Is Now in the Worst Rout Since the 1990s. Home prices fell by 3% in October, data from Valueguard shows. Declines are largest for detached houses as power costs surge – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedish Housing Is Now in the Worst Rout Since the 1990s. Home prices fell by 3% in October, data from Valueguard shows. Declines are largest for detached houses as power costs surge – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Sweden prepares for 75bp rate hike despite house price correction – ING
  • [United Kingdom] A New Source of Economic Anxiety in Britain: Soaring Mortgage Rates. After more than a decade of ultralow interest rates, millions of British households suddenly face large jumps in their monthly payments, rocking the nation’s already weak economy. – New York Times
  • [United Kingdom] Jeremy Hunt’s stamp duty tweak threatens weak housing market, warn experts. UK chancellor to phase out cuts announced by Kwasi Kwarteng – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Nationwide warns bad loans likely to rise as household finances are squeezed. UK’s largest building society loaned its pension fund £400mn after mini-Budget turmoil – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Mortgage rates on five-year fixes tip below 6 per cent. Signs of stability return to the UK home loan market following September’s ‘mini’ Budget – FT
  • [Vietnam] Vietnam Seeks Bond Market Growth After Real-Estate Credit Crunch. Property sector crisis not widespread, finance minister says. Government aims to expand bond market to 25% of GDP by 2030 – Bloomberg

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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