Housing View – November 18, 2022

On cross-country:

  • The global housing market is heading for a brutal downturn. A pandemic-induced property boom peaked at the end of 2021 but the sector is now braced for the broadest slowdown since the financial crash  – Financial Times
  • Europe’s banks face ‘direct hit’ to profits from house price slide – Reuters
  • Chartbook #171 Finance and the polycrisis (2) The global housing downturn – Adam Tooze

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Home-Price Growth Slows Under Tide of Rising Mortgage Rates. Prices in most areas remain higher than they were a year ago because supply remains limited – Wall Street Journal
  • ‘It’s Never Our Time’: First-Time Home Buyers Face a Brutal Market. Unable to compete against older buyers with cash offers, younger potential buyers feel like they are never going to own a house. – New York Times
  • Mortgage Rates Need Another Push to Keep Plunging. A measure of rates on home loans plunged along with Treasury yields following the hopeful inflation data, but they could remain relatively elevated for a while – Wall Street Journal
  • Soaring US Mortgage Rates Are Discouraging Americans From Moving – Bloomberg
  • Lawler: Are US Rents Falling? – Calculated Risk
  • Home prices will fall in 2023, but affordability will be at its worst since 1985, research firm says. Capital Economics predicts that buyers will gain more power in the housing market next year – Market Watch
  • Mortgage Rates Are High Because Nobody Is Buying Mortgages. Banks went on a mortgage-bond buying spree last year, but now they are stepping back from the market – Wall Street Journal
  • October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction. Housing Starts Decreased to 1.425 million Annual Rate in October – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

  • Skimming U.S. Housing Froth a Delicate, Daunting Task – Dallas Fed
  • Mortgage Rates Could Tank Home Prices by 20%, Fed Study Finds. Dallas Fed study maps out potential impact of jump in rates. US house prices tumbled over 32% from 2006 high to 2009 low – Bloomberg 
  • Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November. A Sharp Decline in Sales, House Prices Falling – Calculated Risk
  • Home Buyers Get Creative With Cash Deals to Fend Off High Mortgage Rates. Cash-only deals are on the rise as buyers look for ways to circumvent 20-year-high interest rates – Wall Street Journal
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October. Another step down in sales – Calculated Risk
  • Single-Family Permits Decline in September 2022 – NAHB
  • Builder Confidence Declines for 11 Consecutive Months as Housing Weakness Continues – NAHB
  • It’s a historically bad time to buy a home, and a leading economist says it might not get any better until 2024 at the earliest – Business Insider

On China:

  • China Dials Back Property Restrictions in Bid to Reverse Economic Slide. Partial easing of housing-sector rules comes as Beijing also seeks to lessen economic toll of strict Covid controls – Wall Street Journal
  • China’s 16-Point Plan to Rescue Its Ailing Property Sector – Bloomberg
  • China regulators order more financing support for property firms – Reuters  
  • China’s property easing is minor capitulation – Reuters
  • In China’s property crisis, global asset managers see opportunity in rental housing – Reuters

On other countries:  

  • [Canada] Canadian Home Prices Fall Again, Now Down 10% From Peak. Buyers, sellers adjusting to central bank’s aggressive hikes. Number of sales ticks up for first time since February – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] High interest rates bring winter gloom to Canada’s housing market – Reuters
  • [Canada] Canadian housing starts fall 11% in October -CMHC – Reuters
  • [Israel] Housing prices jump almost 20% in 2022, costs of consumer goods up 4.9%. Consumer Price Index shows 0.6% increase last month, inflation climbs to 5.1% in October 2022 compared to October 2021 – The Times of Israel
  • [Japan] Property Markets Work Better When the Line Doesn’t Always Go Up. Japan’s housing sector has been flat for years. But if dwellings are plentiful and attainable, why should that be a bad thing? – Bloomberg
  • [Korea] Record Apartment Price Drop Adds Korea Property Sector Worries. Weekly flat prices fall at fastest pace in at least a decade. Rate hikes boost burden on households getting home loans – Bloomberg
  • [Poland] The mortgage time bomb ticking beneath Poland’s banks. The legal fallout from a scheme to sell housing loans in Swiss francs threatens to push banks under — and rattle a fragile economy – FT
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices see biggest fall since the 1990s – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] The era of ‘mortgage dominance’. Forget about fiscal dominance, nothing spooks CBs like angry homeowners – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices stall as mortgage rate rise fuels caution. The drop follows two years of growth, although property professionals recorded some regional variation – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Property downturn hits UK housebuilders as sales plummet. Developers warn demand has dropped as much as 50% as higher mortgage rates bite – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices fall as buyers count cost of mini-budget, property website Rightmove says – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] Housing storm leaves UK exposed, skews policy – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Risk Drop of Up to 20%, Bloomberg Economics Says. Latest numbers suggest ‘some form of correction is likely’. Higher interest rates are pushing down housing values – Bloomberg 

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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