Housing View – November 11, 2022

On cross-country:

  • Epic Housing Booms Meet Their Match in Australia, Canada, New Zealand. After multiyear surges for homeowners, property prices are at particular risk – Wall Street Journal

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Fed Sees Risk of Big Declines in Still-Lofty US House Prices. Home prices could be ‘particularly sensitive’ to shocks: Fed. Liquidity in Treasury market is ‘strained,’ Fed says – Bloomberg
  • Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Declined in September; Down 2.6% since June. Worst 3-month Decline in Prices since early 2009 – Calculated Risk
  • Mortgage Activity Remains Low Due to Market Uncertainty – NAHB
  • Housing and Inflation. Mortgage Rates declined Sharply Today – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

  • Older, White and Wealthy Home Buyers Are Pushing Others Out of the Market. The share of first-time buyers fell to 26 percent, plummeting to the lowest level in four decades, when a real estate trade association began tracking such data. – New York Times
  • Home Buyers Are Moving Farther Away Than Ever Before. Rural areas and small towns rise in popularity as remote workers seek opportunity in more affordable communities – Wall Street Journal
  • US Homeowners Have a Fat Equity Cushion for Real-Estate Downturn. Foreclosure wave unlikely even for distressed owners: Attom. Almost half of mortgage borrowers have at least 50% equity – Bloomberg
  • The Affordable American Home is What it Used to be, and That’s a Big Problem – Wall Street Journal
  • Realtor.com Weekly Inventory Up 40% Year-over-year; Now Above Same Week in 2020 – Calculated Risk
  • US Housing Hit by Spiraling Mortgage Rates as Inflation Persists. Tighter central bank policy is taking a toll on building activity and sales. – Bloomberg
  • The Housing Market Is Worse Than You Think. Buyers, sellers and renters are in for more twists and turns, as soaring mortgage rates and stubborn inflation signal belt tightening ahead. – New York Times
  • Housing Supply and Liquidity in the COVID-19 Era – FHFA
  • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October. Another significant step down in sales – Calculated Risk
  • New Home Cancellations increased Sharply in Q3. “Significant shift in market conditions” – Calculated Risk
  • Homebuilder Comments in October: “As negative as I’ve seen”. “October was the worst sales month in 12 years. No buyers, no sales.” – Calculated Risk
  • Unsurprisingly, Housing Affordability Continues to Fall – NAHB
  • Redfin Shuts Home-Flipping Business, Lays Off 13% of Staff in Slumping Housing Market. CEO says Redfin has tied up hundreds of millions of dollars in houses that ‘you yourself wouldn’t want to own’ – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Distressed housing sales rise as owners succumb to Australia’s rising interest rates. Buyers who overpaid for properties in boom market conditions now feeling the pinch, head of property investor group says – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Australia’s rental housing is a national disgrace – and improving it will combat the energy crisis. Making rental properties more energy efficient (and liveable) will free up power for other users – The Guardian
  • [Canada] Toronto Home Price Slide Slows With Sellers Holding Tight. Benchmark prices in Canada’s biggest city down 17.7% from peak. New listings fall to their lowest level for October since 2010 – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Canada’s Slumping Housing Market Weighs on Home Capital’s Loans. Alternative lender reports plunge in mortgage originations. Borrowers continue to pay, keeping non-performing loans low – Bloomberg
  • [Germany] German Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level in Decade on ECB Hikes – Bloomberg
  • [Korea] Korea Unveils $7 Billion in Financing for Property Market. Nation’s credit market has suffered one of worst routs ever. Project finance under scrutiny after default by a developer – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand Homebuyers in Denial as Beach Allure Beats Rising Oceans. New Zealand’s dramatic coastline is hugged by some of the nation’s most expensive real estate — properties that show no sign of losing their value even as sea levels rise, flooding increases and insurance retreat begins. – Bloomberg
  • [Norway] Norwegian House Prices Extend Slide as Interest Rates Lifted – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedish House Price Slide Deepens in Test of Vulnerability – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Sunak vows to protect mortgage holders but says he can’t ‘do everything’. Prime minister declares inflation ‘number one enemy’ and promises to rebuild trust in government – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Price Dip to Push Young Homeowners Into Negative Equity. First-time buyers may struggle to cover costs, think tank says. Lloyds predicts British house prices will drop by 7.9% in 2023 – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Stamp duty receipts hit record high as UK property market starts to cool. Buyers deliver £3.6bn to Treasury in third quarter, but analysts warn on drop in house prices – FT 
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices stall as mortgage rate rise fuels caution. The drop follows two years of growth, although property professionals recorded some regional variation – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK house-buying demand falls at fastest pace since 2020 lockdown. Survey shows one of the largest drops in more than two decades as mortgage rates rise – FT  

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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