Housing View – October 7, 2022

On cross-country:

  • European Real Estate’s Decade-Long Party Is Coming to an End. A €24 billion refinancing gap threatens to spur forced sales. Landlords are holding firm for now but pressure is building – Bloomberg
  • Housing Dynamics: Theory Behind Empirics – NBER

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • When Will Housing Prices Fall? The Federal Reserve’s fiscal policy is meant to curb inflation, but it has a countervailing effect of squeezing an already tight real estate market, according to Wharton’s Susan Wachter. She explains why home prices likely won’t come down without significant unemployment. – Wharton
  • US Home Prices Now Posting Biggest Monthly Drops Since 2009. Cities facing steepest correction include San Francisco. Inventory levels stayed relatively flat, data provider says – Bloomberg
  • Wall Street: The U.S. housing market to see the second biggest home price decline since the Great Depression – Fortune
  • Housing prices: ‘We’re looking at 10-20% discount off retail prices,’ real estate investor says – Yahoo Finance 
  • With Mortgage Rates Soaring, the Housing Market Takes Another Hit. As the average 30-year mortgage rate eclipses 7 percent, home buyers and sellers are confronting sticker shock. – New York Times
  • Will Anyone Ever Buy or Sell a Home Again? High interest rates! Just what this bonkers housing market needed. – Slate
  • Goldman Sees US House Prices Falling 5% to 10% – Calculated Risk
  • Big Federal Stimulus, Home-Value Spike Won’t Ease Next Slump – Dallas Fed

On the US—other developments:    

  • Wonking Out: How the Remote Work Craze Made Housing Affordability Worse – New York Times
  • Housing expert: ‘Sellers aren’t selling’ as mortgage rates climb – Yahoo Finance
  • House Prices Are Cooling Down. But That Doesn’t Mean We’re Heading for a Bust. – Barron’s
  • How to Increase Housing Affordability: Understanding Local Deterrents to Building Multifamily Housing – Boston Fed
  • The housing market is stuck – Axios
  • Eviction Expectations in the Post-Pandemic Housing Market – New York Fed
  • California Is Actually Making Progress on Building More Housing – New York Times 
  • The Housing Revolution Is Coming. Accessory dwelling units might just spell the end of the American suburb as we know it—in the best possible way. – The Atlantic

On China:

  • China to relax floor on mortgage rates to revive housing sector – Reuters
  • China property shares rally on policy support. Beijing has accelerated measures in an attempt to shore up confidence in the real estate sector – FT
  • China property woes trigger decline in global cement output. Biggest fall in at least two decades is concrete evidence of impact of real estate crisis – FT 
  • Why China’s leadership must respond to the country’s property crisis – Atlantic Council
  • China’s property crash: ‘a slow-motion financial crisis’. In the first part of a series, the impact of falling house prices is spreading to local government finances and the broader economy – FT 

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Australian House Prices Drop as Steep RBA Rate Hikes Sour Demand. Bellwether Sydney sees prices slide for eighth straight month. Slower pace of drop may not signal worst is over: CoreLogic – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] House price correction could be over by early 2023: CoreLogic – Financial Review 
  • [Australia] Property prices dropped further in September and falls ‘could accelerate’ again with rate rise. Investors and banks predict RBA will raise cash rate further on Tuesday, while rent increases begin to slow around Australia – The Guardian
  • [Canada] Canada Cuts Home-Price Outlook, Projecting Drop as Deep as 15%. Inflation ‘more persistent’ than expected, CMHC CEO says. Higher rates, years of price gains crushed affordability: RBC – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Homes in Canada Have Never Been So Unaffordable, RBC Says. Rates push ownership costs to 60% of median household income. Prices have dipped but are still 44% higher than in 2019 – Bloomberg
  • [Canada] Toronto Home Prices Are Down 17% as Sales and Listings Plunge. Barely 5,000 homes sold in Canada’s largest city in September. Traders see central bank raising benchmark rate again Oct. 26 – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Goldman Says Hong Kong Home Prices May Fall 30%. Rapidly rising interest rates prompt bank to revise forecast. World’s least affordable housing market is in a rare downturn – Bloomberg
  • [Ireland] Irish House Price Growth May Slow as Economists See 7% Overvaluation – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] House asking prices dropping $10k per month on average – report – RNZ
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand House Prices Suffer Near-Record Quarterly Slump. Worst may not be over as RBNZ keeps raising rates: CoreLogic. Wellington’s annual price decline approaches double digits – Bloomberg
  • [Saudi Arabia] Saudi Arabia’s SRC extends mortgage benchmark maturity to 30 years – Reuters
  • [Singapore] Singapore tightens housing loan limits as rates rise – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Stagnate as Market Flashes Warning Signs. Headwinds grow stronger, rising rates stretch affordability. Nationwide says annual price growth is now back below 10% – Bloomberg   
  • [United Kingdom] More homes selling at a loss as rising interest rates push down property prices. Trend most pronounced in Melbourne and Sydney, reflecting sharper downturns in major cities – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Inside the breakdown of the UK’s mortgage machine. Market turmoil sparked by mini-budget saw banks scrambling and 1,688 home loans pulled from shelves – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Buy-to-let landlords under strain from mortgage rate rises. Sharp jump in interest charges for those refinancing will hit profits – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK house price growth stalls as rate rises bite. Average price unchanged from August to September but mini-Budget fallout hits mortgages – FT  
  • [United Kingdom] UK lenders return to market with mortgage rates near 6%. Banks and building societies offer pricier deals after week of turmoil for UK gilts – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK lenders to face pressure to cut mortgage rates if markets stabilize. Average for two-year fixed deal is now 5.97%, up from 5.75% on Monday – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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