Housing View – October 21, 2022

On cross-country:

  • A global house-price slump is coming. It won’t blow up the financial system, but it will be scary – The Economist
  • Global Housing Market Pain Has Echoes of a Crash 30 Years Ago. Interest-rate hikes, stretched affordability are taking a heavy toll – Bloomberg 
  • The implications of buying a house at the peak of a business cycle – VoxEU

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • The Rent Revolution Is Coming. For the 44 million households who rent a home or apartment in the U.S., inflation keeps pushing costs higher and higher. Anger is rising too. It could be a breaking point. – New York Times
  • When Mortgage Rates Might Stop Rising, and More Takeaways From a Top Housing Economist – Barron’s
  • As US Mortgage Rates Near 7%, a Warning They Could Go Much Higher. Realtors’ economist Yun says 8.5% is next level of resistance. Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages hit 20-year high at 6.92% – Bloomberg 
  • The Fed is facing a housing Catch-22. Higher rates are killing housing supply as well as demand – Quartz
  • Single-Family Permits Decline in August 2022 – NAHB
  • U.S. single-family home starts fall to lowest level in more than two years – Reuters
  • Existing Home Sales Continue to Drop Amid Rising Mortgage Rates – NAHB  

On the US—other developments:    

  • Recession Fears Hit Risky Mortgage Debt Amid Default Concerns. Faltering home prices are hurting investors’ demand for junk-rated mortgage securities sold by housing giants Fannie and Freddie – Wall Street Journal
  • Is Wall Street Really to Blame for the Affordable Housing Crisis? – New York Times
  • Comparing Measures of Housing Inflation – San Francisco Fed
  • Housing shortage risks breaking the American dream. Rising rates are compounding difficulties for buyers to find affordable homes – FT
  • House Prices to National Average Wage Index. New Data for 2021 Wages Released This Morning – Calculated Risk
  • The US housing market’s big chill. As soaring mortgage rates push home ownership beyond reach for many, demand is cooling and prices are falling – FT
  • Some “Good News” for Homebuilders – Calculated Risk
  • Increasing California Housing Supply with SB-9 and SB-1 – American Enterprise Institute

On China:

  • China’s Bursting Housing Bubble Will Rock the Economy for Years. China’s billions in stimulus failing to spark housing demand. Some economists are calling for a market bottom by year-end – Bloomberg
  • Marriage and Homeownership in China – SSRN

On other countries:  

  • [Ireland] Ireland relaxes crisis-era mortgage rules. First-time buyers will be allowed to borrow more but high costs and acute housing shortage remain – FT
  • [Israel] Israeli housing prices keep soaring, up a record 19% from last year. Market continues to defy expectations despite a drop in demand, rising interest and mortgage rates, and global property trends; cost of living index also up 4.6% over last year – Times of Israel
  • [Spain] Spain’s banks seek extending lifespan of mortgages for vulnerable households – Reuters
  • [United Arab Emirates] Dubai’s Luxury Property Market Is Cashing In on the Global Slowdown. The emirate’s property boom is attracting a wild assortment of super-rich buyers. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] London Homes in Financial Districts Saw Double-Digit Price Drops – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Bank of England warns mortgage defaults to rise in months ahead. Survey of lenders paints gloomy picture of new deals drying up and end to ‘golden era’ of cheap mortgages – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Annual mortgage bills to rise by £5,100 for 5mn UK households, study shows. Homeowners in London and lower income earners are the most at risk, Resolution Foundation finds – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK Mortgage Market Shows Signs of Steadying – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] What would a UK housing crash look like today? Four previous housing downturns have ominously familiar elements to today’s situation — so what can we learn from the past? – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


Subscribe to: Posts