Housing View – October 14, 2022

On cross-country:

  • Analysing drivers of residential real estate (RRE) prices and the effects of monetary policy tightening on RRE vulnerabilities – European Central Bank
  • Evaluating housing market risks using a combined demand-supply framework – European Central Bank
  • The transmission and effectiveness of macroprudential policies for residential real estate – European Central Bank
  • Why Home Prices are Poised to Fall – Goldman Sachs
  • Euro Area House-Price Gains Slow for First Time Since Pandemic – Bloomberg 
  • Sharing Economy and its Effects on Housing Markets – UNECE
  • Soaring mortgage rates to pile pressure on property markets worldwide. Housing markets face seismic change as low interest rate environment ends – FT
  • Housing Taxation in OECD Countries – OECD
  • Property Boom Coming To An End, New UBS Report Warns – AFP
  • Exciting, boring, and non-existent skylines: Vertical building gaps in global perspective – VoxEU
  • Declining Demand Drives Price Pullback – Zillow

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • US Mortgage Rates Rise for Seventh Week to Highest in 16 Years. Fixed 30-year rate jumps to 6.75% in last week of September. MBA index of applications to buy, refinance a home tumbles – Bloomberg
  • This Is What 7% Mortgages Will Do to the Housing Market – Bloomberg
  • When will house prices go down? These economists see a ‘prolonged slowdown’ — and predict dramatic declines in home values – MarketWatch
  • Disentangling Rent Index Differences: Data, Methods, and Scope – BLS
  • Mortgage Activity Continues to Fall as Rates Rise – NAHB

On the US—other developments:    

  • 11th Annual Housing Conference on November 30 to December 1 – AEI
  • Christopher J Waller: The economic outlook with a look at the housing market – FED
  • Republicans weaponise US mortgages in pre-midterms push. Federal Reserve interest rate increases have handed GOP ammunition ahead of elections by raising housing payments – FT
  • Heterogenous Rates of Return on Homes and Other Real Estate: Do the Rich Do Better? Do Black Households Do Worse? – NBER
  • If America Needs Starter Homes, Why Are Perfectly Good Ones Being Torn Down? Many communities effectively ensure the only viable replacement for a starter home is a new one that’s much larger and more expensive. – New York Times
  • Here’s How Weird Things Are Getting in the Housing Market. We’re hitting milestone after milestone in the US. – Bloomberg 
  • Current State of the Housing Market. This is a market overview for mid-October – Calculated Risk
  • MBA: Mortgage Credit Availability was Never Excessive During the Recent Housing Boom – Calculated Risk
  • US property sector braced for job cuts as rate rises crush home sales. Real estate business has dried up as a pandemic-inspired boom comes to a dramatic end – FT
  • Home Flippers Get Burned by US Housing Market’s Sudden Slump. Falling demand and rising interest rates mean some investors are likely to take losses on quick deals. – Bloomberg
  • Low Supply Could Support a Drooping Housing Market, Wells Fargo Says – Wall Street Journal
  • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September. Sales and New Listings Down Year-over-year, Inventory Up – Calculated Risk 

On China:

  • China property crisis spoils Communist party’s moment of triumph. Officials take cautious approach to tackling overleveraged sector that threatens economic growth – FT
  • Caixabank proposes sector-wide freeze in variable mortgage costs, source says – Reuters
  • China Evergrande’s Debt-Crisis Fallout: Losses, Layoffs and More Defaults. The property titan’s financial troubles have spilled over to construction companies, interior decorators, and many others it owes money – Wall Street Journal
  • China Property Debt Crisis Deepens as State-Aided Firm Defaults. Developer missed coupon on Hong Kong dollar convertible note. CIFI blames holiday for payment delay but warns about default – Bloomberg
  • Chinese Local Governments Buying Houses to Aid Property Sector. Suzhou plans to buy about 10,000 units, Securities Times says. Jinan city proposed to purchase 3,000 homes to rent out – Bloomberg
  • China’s Bursting Housing Bubble Will Rock the Economy for Years – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

  • [Canada] Labour shortage to restrict Canadian housing supply -CMHC – Reuters
  • [Canada] Rosenberg Sees 1990s-Style Canada Housing Bust Hurting Spending – Bloomberg
  • [Hong Kong] Home prices in Hong Kong could fall 30%, predicts Goldman Sachs – Fortune
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s Property Market Is Tumbling as Unsold Homes Pile Up. Rising rates add to slump caused by Covid curbs, brain drain. Home prices, down 8% already this year, poised to dip further – Bloomberg
  • [New Zealand] Economics class video: NZ housing — a canary in the coal mine? – FT
  • [Singapore] Rich mainland Chinese snap up luxury homes in Singapore despite tax hikes – Reuters
  • [Singapore] Singapore Home Prices Won’t Defy Gravity for Long. The fastest quarterly increase in suburban real-estate prices in 13 years will make the city-state uncomfortable. Authorities will act again if rising interest costs fail to cool demand. – Bloomberg
  • [Singapore] Singapore Apartment Rents Soar 31% With Further Gains to Come. Private apartment rents up 31% in year through September. A shortage of home supply could push more people to rent – Bloomberg
  • [Spain] Spanish House Prices Reach Highest Level in a Decade – Bloomberg
  • [Sweden] Swedish Housing Market Slump Deepens on Rate, Energy Worries. Apartment prices have fallen 6% on year, houses are down 3%. Record-high energy costs, interest rates impact demand – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] Kwasi Kwarteng to meet UK bank chiefs over mortgage market turmoil. Chancellor likely to be asked about 8% surcharge on bank profits – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Britain’s mortgage market is adjusting to higher interest rates. But it will be a painful process for existing and wannabe homeowners – The Economist
  • [United Kingdom] Kwarteng considers extending mortgage guarantee scheme. Initiative may continue beyond December as bank bosses raise concerns over mortgage market – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK house price growth cools as rate rises pinch. Cost of a typical home eases from previous record to £293,835, says Halifax – FT
  • [United Kingdom] British banks’ mortgage payday comes with sting in the tail – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] Chancellor Kwarteng Urged for Action to ‘Defuse Mortgage Ticking Time Bomb’ – Bloomberg 
  • [United Kingdom] Paying a Mortgage in Britain Is No Longer Cheaper Than Renting. Mortgage payments to eat up 40% of income, UBS analysts say. Homebuilder stocks may be attractive after 50% drop this year – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] U.K. Housing Market Heads for Mortgage-Rate Shock. With a sharp rise in mortgage rates, homeowners’ monthly payments are set to soar. – Wall Street Journal
  • [United Kingdom] Demand for new-build homes cooling fast, says Barratt. UK’s largest housebuilder cuts profit estimate – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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