Housing View – September 9, 2022

On cross-country:

  • Global house prices display surprising resilience in Q2. Global housing markets wrongfooted us this quarter with housing markets displaying relative resilience. – Knight Frank
  • Curtains drawing on runaway rise in global house prices: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • City house prices outperform national housing markets in Q2. City prices stole a march on their national counterparts in Q2 2022, although neither saw the sudden downturn that many anticipated. – Knight Frank
  • Crypto real estate: the property market built on digital assets. Agents want to tap a growing pool of buyers looking to convert their cryptocurrency into bricks and mortar – FT

On the US—developments on house prices and rent:    

  • US Consumers See Home Prices Falling for First Time Since 2020. Fannie Mae survey shows 0.4% decline in price expectations. Expected rental price growth slides most in data back to 2010 – Bloomberg
  • June 2022 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Moving Towards Rebalance – Zillow
  • Will House Prices Decline Nationally? – Calculated Risk
  • Lawler: Are “National” Home Prices Already Falling? – Calculated Risk
  • The Sharp Slowdown in Year-over-year House Price Growth – Calculated Risk
  • Apartment inflation – The Grumpy Economist

On the US—other developments:    

  • Why the Housing Market Is Not in Recession. Housing sales are falling in response to rising interest rates, but the real estate market is not in a recession, according to Wharton’s Fernando Ferreira. He explains why the persistent lack of supply will continue to put pressure on homebuyers. – Wharton
  • Are Mortgages Becoming More Affordable? – St. Louis Fed
  • Why housing is the key to the next Fed pivot. The US faces a perfect storm of rising financing costs, squeezed demand and increased supply – FT
  • Shift to Working from Home Diminished Large Cities’ Productivity Premium – Dallas Fed
  • California Fights Its NIMBYs. Laws to encourage more development and denser housing don’t do much good if no one enforces them. As the state political calculus shifts, Gavin Newsom is trying to change that. – New York Times
  • Housing Innovation Faces Many Barriers – Cato Institute 
  • California Fights Its NIMBYs. Laws to encourage more development and denser housing don’t do much good if no one enforces them. As the state political calculus shifts, Gavin Newsom is trying to change that. – New York Times
  • Affordable-Housing Projects Derailed as Developers Struggle for Financing. Rising interest rates, inflation and supply-chain issues lead to delays in development – Wall Street Journal
  • US mortgage lenders are starting to go bankrupt — how this one factor could be triggering the worst surge of failures since 2008 – Yahoo
  • August 2022 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report – Realtor
  • Share of Smaller Lots Record High Amid Pandemic – NAHB
  • Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: “Total market leverage was just 42% of mortgaged homes’ values, the lowest on record”. “Tappable equity is now down 5% in the last two months” – Calculated Risk
  • High Home Prices, Mortgage Rates Weighing on Housing Sentiment – Fannie Mae
  • How We Know California’s New Rent Control Law Will Make Its Housing Shortage Worse. Rent controls propose using government regulation to solve the symptom—high prices—of a problem—a shortage of housing—which government regulation created in the first place. – FEE
  • Homebuilder Comments in August: Increased Incentives Helping Sales. “Construction cycle time has improved” – Calculated Risk

On China:

  • Evergrande crisis deepens as lender seizes headquarters. World’s most indebted property developer defaulted on loan and twice failed to sell Hong Kong building – FT
  • Chinese city to start building stalled housing projects amid mortgage boycott – Reuters
  • Beijing’s Debts Come Due. How a Burst Real-Estate Bubble Threatens China’s Economy – Foreign Affairs
  • As China’s property crisis grows, can nationalisation help rebalance its economy? Developers’ debt crisis raises concerns about health of banks, local governments’ fiscal viability, impact of falling property prices on consumption and economic growth. China can look to US experience where partial nationalisation of troubled assets, financial institutions helped restore financial stability, boost economic recovery – South China Morning Post

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Era of through-the-roof house prices in Australia set to end: Reuters poll – Reuters
  • [Australia] As rates rise, housing markets show no sign of distress – Financial Review
  • [Cambodia] Cambodia’s house prices in freefall – Global Property Guide
  • [Canada] Canada house prices set for sharp fall in 2023; BoC to hike 75 bps on Sept 7 – Reuters
  • [Canada] Vancouver home sales slumped in August as higher rates shift market – Bloomberg
  • [France] France Weighs Revising Mortgage Rules to Support Lending. Le Maire says regulators could lift cap on home loan rates. Finance ministry in talks with Bank of France on the matter – Bloomberg
  • [India] Rate hikes unlikely to dent housing demand in India, Bengaluru to lead price rises – Reuters
  • [Ireland] Examining the response of house prices to supply using a Markov regime switching approach: The case of the Irish housing market – ESRI
  • [Mexico] Mexican housing must become denser, better planned – study – Reuters
  • [New Zealand] Boom turns to gloom as higher interest rates hit New Zealand housing – Reuters
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand house prices continue to plunge, as national average falls below $1m. Downturn is entrenched across the country, but fears that falling prices and rising interest rates will hit borrowers have been played down – The Guardian
  • [New Zealand] New Zealand’s house prices rising strongly, despite falling demand – Global Property Guide
  • [Sweden] Stockholm’s ‘Housing for All’ Is Now Just for the Few. Soaring demand for rent-controlled housing in the Swedish capital has left many residents at the mercy of an expensive, sometimes dangerous sublet market. – Bloomberg
  • [United Arab Emirates] POLL Dubai housing market outlook dims on increase in borrowing costs – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] UK housing is on shaky foundations. Era of rock bottom interest rates, elevated demand and ample government support is drawing to a close – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Is owning a second home unethical? A philosopher reflects. With the UK’s woefully undersupplied housing market, buying a holiday home in some areas has become a controversial act – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Coming UK house price plunge has a silver lining. You may not benefit, but your children could – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices rise at annual rate of 10% despite steeper mortgage costs. Double-digit growth for 10th successive month surpasses economists’ expectations of slowdown – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Forecast to Stall Next Year as Rents Continue Rising – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK housebuilders’ shares tumble on gloomy house price predictions. HSBC expects value of average British home to drop 7.5% with central London falling further – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Startup Wants to Chart Path to More Equitable Urban Development. OneCity says its digital-mapping app can help planners create housing that better serves the needs of the poor. – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Prices Rise Led By Surge in London, Halifax Says – Bloomberg

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


Subscribe to: Posts