Housing View – September 29, 2022

On cross-country:

  • How long can the super-prime property boom continue? The super-rich seem to have been largely unaffected by rising mortgage rates, spiralling inflation and the threat of recession — so far – FT

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • FOMO Helped Drive Up Housing Prices in the Pandemic. What Can We Expect Next? – New York Times
  • Home Prices Suffer First Monthly Decline in Years. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index fell 0.3% in July from June, the first month-over-month decline since January 2019 – Wall Street Journal
  • Housing Paralysis Engulfs US Buyers With Prices Starting to Fall. Soaring mortgage rates have led to the worst affordability in almost four decades, while sellers are also trapped in place. – Bloomberg
  • Unless Rents Rise, Housing Is Set Up for an Epic Crash. All of the reasons to suggest residential real estate is not facing a disaster have melted away. – Bloomberg
  • Your City’s Housing Boom Could Go Bust. A national decline in home prices is unlikely, but markets that have experienced outsized increases over the past few years may be hit harder than most by rising mortgage rates – Wall Street Journal
  • A Fundamental Reason House Prices Will Fall This Fall. The prices people expect tomorrow affect demand and supply today. – Real Estate Decoded
  • The Housing Market Is Slowing. Just Look at Lumber Prices. – Barron’s
  • Housing Starts Expected to Find Pre-Pandemic Levels Next Year, Analyst Says – Wall Street Journal
  • Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow. Higher Rents will continue to impact measures of inflation in 2022 – Calculated Risk
  • AEI Housing Market Indicators, September 2022 – American Enterprise Institute
  • Inflation Adjusted House Prices Declined Further in July. House Price-to-Rent Ratio also Declined in July – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

  • Peaks in Housing Construction as a Recession Signal – St. Louis Fed
  • Remote Work and Housing Demand – San Francisco Fed
  • Unpacking Shelter Inflation – Philadelphia Fed
  • Remote Work Drove Over 60% of House-Price Surge, Fed Study Finds – Bloomberg
  • Why Wall Street is snapping up family homes. The opportunity is unprecedented, but comes with risks – The Economist
  • Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different – Calculated Risk
  • Whatever Happened to the Starter Home? The economics of the housing market, and the local rules that shape it, have squeezed out entry-level homes. – New York Times
  • John Paulson on Frothy US Housing Market: This Time Is Different. Unlike subprime era, financial system is not at risk, he says. Real interest rates blamed for lackluster gold price – Bloomberg
  • The U.S. Is Running Short of Land for Housing. Land-use restrictions and lack of infrastructure have made it harder for developers to find sites to build homes; ‘almost across the board, you’re fighting for land’ – Wall Street Journal  
  • Fed’s Harker says housing shortage a key inflation driver – Reuters

On China:

  • A Ponzi scheme by any other name: the bursting of China’s property bubble. Only state intervention can save the day, but the pain is likely to fall on ordinary citizens, say observers – The Guardian
  • World Bank Cuts China Growth Forecast as Covid-19, Real-Estate Crunch Take Toll. Emerging economies in Asia are seen outpacing China for the first time since 1990 – Wall Street Journal

On other countries:  

  • [Canada] Renters occupy rising share of newer homes in Canada, census shows – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong finance chief says no sharp risk to property prices – Reuters
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s reduced bar for mortgages may not be enough to spur home sales – S&P Global
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong home prices drop 2.3% in August to lowest in 3-1/2 years – Reuters
  • [Indonesia] Indonesia’s house prices falling, despite improving demand – Global Property Guide
  • [Nigeria] Nigeria to Allow Savers to Dip Into Pension Funds for Mortgages – Bloomberg
  • [Portugal] Portugal House Prices Rise Most Since 2010 as Lisbon Struggles With Shortage of Homes. Lisbon is trying to increase the supply of homes in the city. Country has attracted foreign investors seeking golden visas – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK Unleashes Slew of Property Tax Cuts to Stoke Market. Threshold for property taxes will be doubled to £250,000. Tax threshold for first-time buyers increased to £425,000 – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] ‘It’s bittersweet’: what home-buyers think of chancellor’s stamp duty cut. Property-hunters on how permanent reduction for purchases in England and Northern Ireland will affect them – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Room to rent? UK housesharing on the rise due to energy bills and living costs. Taking in lodgers and sharing meals with family and friends are just some of the ways people can bear down on heating expenses – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] House sellers ‘putting up prices despite rate rises and cost of living crisis’. Average price of homes coming to market in September increased by 0.7% on previous month to £367,760, says Rightmove – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK House Asking Prices Rebound With Strongest Growth Since May. Rightmove says buyer demand is 20% higher than before pandemic. Lack of supply is likely to support market through recession – Bloomberg
  • [United Kingdom] UK lenders pause new mortgages amid market turmoil. Virgin Money and Skipton among those to suspend loans as wholesale rates whipsaw – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Where this UK mortgage meltdown will really bite. For both banks and consumers, the shock will jar some more than others – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Jump in mortgage rates threatens UK property price crash. Market turmoil leaves more than 2mn homeowners facing sharp rise in borrowing costs over next two years – FT
  • [United Kingdom] UK housing market may face perfect storm as mortgage rates rise, house prices drop – Reuters
  • [United Kingdom] Almost 1,000 mortgage deals pulled as panic grips UK housing market. Borrowers unable to secure loans and provisional offers withdrawn as some pay huge penalties to lock in longer fixed rates – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] UK house prices may fall 20% amid mortgage ‘carnage’, warn experts. Lack of supply will prevent crash, say some, while others predict ‘simple maths’ mean property price bubble poised to burst – The Guardian 

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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