Housing View – September 23, 2022

On cross-country:

  • ECB Says Pandemic Behavioral Shifts May Cushion Housing Market – Bloomberg
  • The impact of rising mortgage rates on the euro area housing market – European Central Bank 
  • Who escapes the great mortgage reset? Higher interest rates make refinancing an increasingly grim prospect for homeowners and businesses – FT
  • Affordable housing attracts institutional investment. The need for affordable homes has never been greater. At the same time, the institutional interest in Australian housing has never been stronger. – Financial Review
  • The World Got $41 Trillion Wealthier Last Year. U.S. Households Were Big Gainers. – Wall Street Journal
  • Affordable Homes for the Poor Can Boost Collective Well-Being – Insead

On the US—developments on house prices, rent, permits and mortgage:    

  • Powell Warns of Correction in Once ‘Red-Hot’ Housing Market. Fed chief says US property price-gains were unsustainable. ‘Good thing’ for prices to decelerate, Powell says Wednesday – Bloomberg
  • Home prices see biggest drop in 9 years, thanks to higher mortgage rates – NPR  
  • U.S. home sales drop for 7th straight month, house price growth cooling – Reuters  
  • Climbing Housing Costs Could Prop Up Inflation for a While. Economists say rents will eventually moderate. Question is when? – Wall Street Journal
  • Biden Adviser Says Fed Hikes Are Helping to Cool Housing Prices – Bloomberg
  • Decline in Single-Family Permits in July 2022 – NAHB
  • As Mortgage Rates Top 6%, More Borrowers Choose Adjustable-Rate Loans. Although riskier, this type of mortgages offers buyers chance to make lower payments now, refinance later – Wall Street Journal
  • These Are the US Areas Most at Risk of Housing Downturn, According to Attom Report. Counties seen most vulnerable to price declines in ranking. Rising rates are hurting home sales, boosting unaffordability – Bloomberg
  • US Housing Starts Rise Unexpectedly Though Building Permits Drop. Pace of new construction rose 12.2% in August to 1.58 million. Permit applications decline to slowest pace since mid-2020 – Bloomberg
  • August Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction. Housing Starts Increased to 1.575 million Annual Rate in August – Calculated Risk

On the US—other developments:    

  • America’s Fractured Housing Market. The Pandemic Broke America’s Housing Market in More Ways Than One – Apricitas Economics
  • There’s an Unusual Thing Happening in the Housing Market – Bloomberg
  • Homeownership for All Is a Dying Dream. The U.S. economy evolved to spread affordable homes to the masses. A Columbia historian describes how it happened, and why the trend has broken down. – New York Times
  • Rate-Hike Fears Are Hitting People Where They Live. The Fed could wreak damage on housing markets that were already strained by affordability. Homebuilder confidence is falling sharply. – Bloomberg
  • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August. Sales and New Listings Down Sharply Year-over-year – Calculated Risk
  • The Long March of the YIMBYs. Slowly, the tide is starting to turn. – Noah Smith
  • A New Set of Housing Winners and Losers Is Emerging. Economic inequality this decade will largely be defined by those who bought homes before 2022 and those who didn’t. – Bloomberg
  • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased Slightly to 4.80 million SAAR in August – Calculated Risk
  • Economic Indicators Continue to Point to Likely Recession in 2023. Housing Expected to Cool Even Further as Mortgage Rates Move Higher – Fannie Mae
  • Covid Era Impacts on Working from Home and Housing Market Impacts – Calculated Risk

On China:

  • China’s property crisis hasn’t gone away: it is getting worse. Officials may have little choice but to bail out the industry – The Economist
  • China’s local government financing vehicles go on land-buying spree. Property purchases seen as bailout for cities and provinces after exodus of private developers – FT
  • China’s Housing Market Is Still on Life Support. Without firmer, broader commitment from Beijing, China’s housing woes will continue to spread – Wall Street Journal
  • Even State-Backed China Developers at Risk of Surging Default, Citi Says. SOE developers are biggest drivers of this year’s increase. Overall systemic risk is still ‘manageable’ for Chinese banks – Bloomberg
  • Housing Wealth and Online Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Xiong’an New Area in China – NBER 
  • Chinese buyers snap up luxury homes as ‘hard currency’ in soft property market – Reuters
  • China Mortgage Boycotts Grow as Home Buyers Regroup Online. GitHub list shows homebuyers boycotting 342 projects in China. Government has sought to ease crisis with more funds, loans – Bloomberg

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Interest Rates and the Property Market – Reserve Bank of Australia
  • [Australia] Australia Property CEOs Give Diverging Outlooks as Rates Rise. Lendlease’s Lombardo sees tailwinds growing for real estate. Dexus CEO sees one of toughest environments of his career – Bloomberg
  • [Australia] Houses to be hit harder than flats by price falls, RBA says. Head of domestic markets says rate rises will depress commercial and residential property prices but wider risks appear contained – The Guardian
  • [Australia] Australian sprawl: why developing our way to affordable housing could backfire – The Guardian
  • [Canada] Housing Prices Grind Lower in Canada, Aiding Fight Against Inflation. Benchmark prices drop 1.6% in August and are 7.4% below peak. Declines won’t change central bank’s approach, BMO says – Bloomberg 
  • [Canada] Canada housing starts fall 3% in August as multi-units decline – Reuters
  • [Canada] Cool housing market puts a freeze on flipping – The Globe and Mail
  • [Ireland] ‘It’s absolutely buzzing’: Dublin house prices rebound. Ireland’s capital city has seen immigration rise and a return to ‘Celtic Tiger’ prices – FT
  • [Mexico] Mexico’s sluggish housing market – Global Property Guide
  • [Norway] Norway’s housing market losing steam – Global Property Guide
  • [Sweden] Swedish Housing Prices Continue Lower as Cost Surge Looms. Apartment prices rose 0.6% in August, while house prices fell. Rising power costs may worsen the slump in home prices – Bloomberg

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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