Housing View – November 12, 2021

On cross-country:

On the US:   

  • The U.S. Housing and Mortgage Market: Risks and Resilience – FED
  • Fed’s Bowman sees risks in housing market, flags inflation pressure – Reuters
  • A different kind of housing bubble – FT
  • ‘Zillow: the models underneath a housing hedge fund did not hold. Company deserves credit for pulling the plug quickly and retreating to its successful core – FT
  • How Zillow got rocked by the housing market – Quartz
  • Zillow’s home-buying debacle shows how hard it is to use AI to value real estate – CNN
  • Single-Family Rental Firms Eye Zillow’s Housing Stock. Interest comes as Zillow gets ready to shut down its home-flipping business – Wall Street Journal
  • A whodunnit on Zillow. Lessons for America’s housing market – The Economist
  • Red-Hot Housing Market Drives Biggest Home-Equity Drawdown Since 2007. Homeowners are tapping into their properties’ equity to fund renovations, invest in stocks and more. – Wall Street Journal 
  • Why Home Buyers Should Comparison Shop for Mortgage Rates—but Don’t. Even a small difference among interest-rate offerings can add up to noticeable savings – Wall Street Journal
  • The Price of Living in ‘Paradise’ Is Higher Than Ever. Land and homes in Hawaii, never inexpensive, are more in demand in these days of remote working — as in remote from the U.S. mainland. – New York Times
  • COVID, Race, and Housing Insecurity – Harvard University
  • A surge in the US affordable housing supply is coming from people who can’t afford their homes – Quartz
  • Will the Democrats’ ‘Build Back Better’ Bill Do Anything to Fix Zoning? Will the “Unlocking Possibilities” program be an effective way to spark zoning reforms—or just a subsidy to planning consultants? – Reason 
  • Movie studios are good neighbors – if you like rising house prices – LSE
  • How Data Is Reshaping Real Estate. Tech start-ups are offering new tools to help retailers and entertainment venues be more efficient by counting crowds, tracking foot traffic and following local shopping habits. – New York Times
  • The Possible Impacts of Remote Work on Cities, Neighborhoods, and Households – Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • Schumer scores billions for New York’s decaying public housing. The jockeying over the housing funds is one of many emerging sources of political tension surrounding President Joe Biden’s bill. – Politico
  • Rent Control Backfires Again in St. Paul. Voters put on a 3% cap. You’ll never guess what developers did next. – Wall Street Journal

On China

  • China struggles to regulate house prices despite glut of controls. Evergrande debt crisis prompts other developers to offer discounts, worrying authorities – FT
  • Fed warns ailing China real estate sector poses risks to US economy. Central bank also monitoring volatility in meme stocks, per closely watched semi-annual report – FT, New York Times and CNBC
  • Chinese developer Kaisa pleads for help as Fed warns of risks – Reuters
  • Evergrande dodges default again; property sector debt concerns linger – Reuters
  • China’s Plan to Manage Evergrande: Take It Apart, Slowly. Beijing is working on a controlled implosion of the real-estate giant, selling off some assets while limiting damage to home buyers and businesses – Wall Street Journal
  • Kaisa says trying to solve liquidity issues, pleads for ‘more time and patience’ – Reuters
  • Chinese developer Kaisa pleads for ‘patience’ as market strife spreads. Real estate groups including Evergrande rush to sell assets as contagion reaches higher-rated debt – FT
  • As China’s Property Crisis Spreads, Beijing Says There’s Nothing to See. Global markets just weeks ago were fretting over the possible failure of Evergrande. Now the developer says the worst is over, even as other companies show signs of trouble. – New York Times
  • China’s Economy Faces Risk of Yearslong Real-Estate Hangover. Booming market helped juice growth for more than a decade; without it, China could struggle to match previous pace, economists say – Wall Street Journal
  • Deadline looms for Evergrande payment amid contagion fears – Al Jazeera
  • Speculation nation: Can Xi Jinping’s property tax deflate China’s housing bubble? President faces an uphill battle to undo a system that has led to a bloated property sector – The Guardian
  • China doesn’t have a housing bubble. Here’s why. China needs a large and vibrant real-estate sector to build enough housing in its big cities to meet the urbanisation demand in the next 10-20 years. Its high levels of savings and investment should also be seen as a blessing, especially given the costly necessary transition to clean energy – South China Morning Post
  • China’s harsh medicine for property sector, local government debt could cause chaos, economists warn
  • Beijing’s stricter regulation of local government borrowing and real estate developers increase the risks that some of them may run out of cash, analysts say. Defusing financial risk was one of three economic priorities set by Chinese President Xi Jinping four years ago, which has seen scrutiny of hidden local government debts  – South China Morning Post
  • How does Affordable Housing Supply Affect Commercial Housing Prices: Crow out Supply or Divert Demand?- Journal of Finance and Economics
  • China real estate firms may issue inter-bank market debt – Securities Times – Reuters
  • Why China’s Real Estate Slowdown Isn’t Like Japan’s – Bloomberg 

On other countries:  

  • [Australia] Widespread money laundering in property locking out Australians from owning homes, Senate told. Australia now ‘destination of choice’ for flow of illicit funds, anti-corruption expert says – The Guardian
  • [Hong Kong] Hong Kong’s property barons set to benefit from affordable housing drive. City’s developers well-positioned to capitalise on Beijing’s efforts to promote social justice – FT
  • [Ireland] Remote working linked to surge in house prices outside Dublin. Increased demand from those looking to relocate putting pressure on rural prices – The Irish Times
  • [New Zealand] One of the World’s Hottest Real-Estate Markets Tries to Cool Down. New Zealand is pulling every lever to tame property prices without shaking its economy and crashing the market – Wall Street Journal  
  • [United Kingdom] How does house price indexation affect the valuation of equity release mortgages? – Bank of England
  • [United Kingdom] Return of super-rich to central London fuels house price surge. Property prices in city’s most expensive district rise by almost 7% as Covid restrictions ease – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Signs of a cooling housing market are too late for those hoping for better affordability. Talk has turned to an interest rate rise but the RBA says that’s still a way off – The Guardian
  • [United Kingdom] Higher interest rates mean more expensive mortgages. But changes in the British housing market mute their effect – The Economist
  • [United Kingdom] Property prices fall in upmarket London boroughs. Westminister and Kensington and Chelsea among those hit by pandemic-driven ‘race for space’ – FT
  • [United Kingdom] Will UK house prices fall as interest rates rise? While rates are expected to rise over the next year, forecasts about price growth vary from a slowdown to an outright contraction – FT

Posted by at 5:00 AM

Labels: Global Housing Watch


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