World Economic Outlook, April 2018 Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

The IMF just launched the April 2018 World Economic Outlook:

“The global economic upswing that began around mid-2016 has become broader and stronger. This new World Economic Outlook report projects that advanced economies as a group will continue to expand above their potential growth rates this year and next before decelerating, while growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off. For most countries, current favorable growth rates will not last. Policymakers should seize this opportunity to bolster growth, make it more durable, and equip their governments better to counter the next downturn.”

Chapter 2 notes that “Dao, Furceri, and Loungani (2014) highlight the increasing role of participation as an absorber of state-level labor demand shocks.”

Chapter 3 notes the findings from my paper with Saurabh Mishra, Chris Papageorgiou, and Ke Wang that “Cross-border trade in services has been growing steadily over the past four decades, and now accounts for about one-fifth of global exports. […] The increase in the tradability of services is widespread across countries. […] In terms of industries, the increase in service exports has been particularly large in “modern” services that can be delivered at a distance, such as telecommunications, computer and information services, intellectual property, financial intermediation, and other business activities, including research and development and professional services.”

The full report is available here. My paper on regional labor market adjustment is available here. My paper on services trade is available here.

Posted by at 4:17 PM

Labels: Inclusive Growth


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